为什么便宜还不够：我们还没有过渡到可再生能源的真正原因

大多数经济学家和政策制定者认为，清洁能源过渡是一个成本问题。他们采取了一种简化的看法，即通过降低清洁能源的成本，可再生能源将缓慢而肯定地超过化石燃料并驱动自然过渡。

It’s clear to many people that the world urgently needs to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and embrace cleaner, renewable energy sources, and governments have recognized this with their pledges to achieve net-zero greenhouse emissions in the not-too-distant future. But it’s not clear if those governments will be able to make good on those promises while relying on existing economic models.

对于许多人来说，清楚的是，世界迫切需要减少对化石燃料的依赖，并接受清洁工，可再生能源，政府已经认识到这一点，以实现在不太遥不可及的未来的净零温室排放。但是目前尚不清楚这些政府在依靠现有经济模式的同时是否能够对这些承诺做出良好的态度。

Most economists and policymakers believe the clean energy transition is a question of cost. They take a simplified view that by bringing down the costs of cleaner energy sources, renewables will slowly but surely surpass fossil fuels and drive a natural transition. This belief has led to a concerted effort by both governments and industry to reduce the costs of clean energy, and solar and wind power in particular has become much more affordable over the last few decades. That’s especially true in China, where the government has provided subsidies to scale up green industries and bring down the “levelized cost of energy”, or LCOE. This metric shows that clean energy sources were more affordable than fossil fuels, even before events such as the Ukraine conflict sent the cost of oil and gas soaring.

大多数经济学家和政策制定者认为，清洁能源过渡是一个成本问题。他们采取了一种简化的看法，即通过降低清洁能源的成本，可再生能源将缓慢而肯定地超过化石燃料并驱动自然过渡。这种信念导致政府和行业都努力降低清洁能源的成本，而在过去的几十年中，太阳能和风能尤其变得更加负担得起。在中国尤其如此，政府提供了扩大绿色行业并降低“能源水平的成本”或LCOE的补贴。该度量标准表明，即使在乌克兰冲突等事件发出石油和天然气的成本之前，清洁能源比化石燃料更实惠。

But even with clean energy now being cheaper than fossil fuels, we haven’t seen the hoped-for global transition to renewable energy sources. In fact, clean energy is still only used as a supplement to fossil fuels, and governments in both developed and developing nations continue to ramp up the production of fossil fuels and seek out new reserves.

但是，即使现在清洁能源比化石燃料便宜，我们也没有看到全球向可再生能源的过渡。实际上，清洁能源仍然只用作化石燃料的补充剂，而发达国家和发展中国家的政府都在不断增加化石燃料的生产并寻求新的储量。

Some blame the rise of politicians such as Donald Trump in the U.S, who has long denied the impact of climate change, for the lack of progress in the clean energy transition. But the blame can’t just be placed on these politicians, for the real reasons are more complex, rooted in the economics of clean energy. According to Brett Christophers, the author of The Price is Wrong: Why Capitalism Won’t Save the Planet, one of the problems is that, while renewable energy may be cheaper, it’s not as profitable as fossil fuels. Moreover, the nature of electricity demand means it’s not suitable for market forces to govern the price of renewable energy, resulting in suboptimal outcomes for investors in energy infrastructure.

一些人归咎于唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）等政客的兴起，他长期以来一直否认了气候变化的影响，因为他们缺乏清洁能源过渡的进展。但是，由于真正的原因，责备不能仅仅归咎于这些政客，这是更复杂的，它源于清洁能源的经济学。据布雷特·克里斯托弗斯（Brett Christophers）说，价格的作者是错误的：为什么资本主义不会拯救地球，但问题之一是，尽管可再生能源可能更便宜，但它不如化石燃料那么有利可图。此外，电力需求的性质意味着不适合市场​​力量管理可再生能源的价格，从而为能源基础设施的投资者带来了次优的结果。

Why Cheap Isn’t Enough

为什么便宜还不够

The unique characteristics of renewable energy create some big problems for the transition to clean energy. Nature is an unpredictable beast, and so the supply of wind and solar power is intermittent. Sometimes the sun shines, sometimes it doesn’t, leading to fluctuations in energy output and volatile prices. Moreover, government subsidies for green energy sources often result in overcapacity during periods of lower demand. Yet the withdrawal of subsidies disincentivizes investment in the sector.

可再生能源的独特特征为过渡到清洁能源带来了一些大问题。大自然是一种不可预测的野兽，因此风和太阳能的供应是间歇性的。有时阳光照耀，有时不会，导致能源输出和波动价格的波动。此外，政府对绿色能源的补贴通常会导致需求较低的时期产能过剩。然而，撤销补贴却不愿对该行业的投资。

As countries like the U.K. and Germany ramp up their consumption of renewable energy, their supply becomes more unpredictable, which increases the reliance on fossil fuels for those times when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind isn’t blowing.

随着英国和德国等国家不断增加对可再生能源的消费，它们的供应变得更加不可预测，这增加了那些太阳没有闪耀而风吹来的时代，这增加了对化石燃料的依赖。

To get past fossil fuels, the clean energy sector needs to find a reliable way to store the excess power that’s generated when the sun shines brightly or when the wind blows a gale, so it can be used at times when the supply is inadequate. We do this primarily with pumped-storage hydro, but this method is only suitable for places with sufficient water sources and the right topography. There’s also battery storage, but the costs of these remain extremely prohibitive. According to research by MIT, the price of battery storage would need to come down by 90% for renewable energy sources to replace fossil fuels, and that’s unlikely to happen any time soon.

为了越过化石燃料，清洁能源部门需要找到一种可靠的方法来存储阳光明媚或风吹气时产生的多余功率，因此有时可以在供应不足时使用它。我们主要使用泵送水电进行操作，但是此方法仅适用于有足够的水源和正确地形的地方。也有电池存储，但是这些成本仍然极为令人难以置信。根据麻省理工学院的研究，可再生能源的电池存储价格需要下降90％，以取代化石燃料，而且这种情况不太可能很快发生。

The intermittent supply of renewables makes clean energy projects less attractive for investors, which means it becomes harder to secure funding for these initiatives, further holding back the transition away from fossil fuels. We’ve seen this with the Glasgow Alliance for Net Zero, which was launched in April 2021 at COP26 amid great fanfare, promising to remove barriers to investment in the global transition. But already, the six largest U.S. banks have all withdrawn from the initiative, seriously undermining its prospects.

间歇性的可再生能源供应使清洁能源项目对投资者的吸引力较低，这意味着为这些计划获得资金变得更加困难，进一步阻止了从化石燃料的过渡。我们已经看到了格拉斯哥联盟（Glasgow Alliance for Net Zero）的净零联盟，该联盟于2021年4月在Cop26发起，但有望消除全球过渡投资的障碍。但是，美国六家银行已经从该倡议中撤回，严重破坏了其前景。

Unless clean energy projects can attract enough funding, the world is going to be stuck with fossil fuels for the foreseeable future, but they remain unattractive for traditional investors.

除非清洁能源项目能够吸引足够的资金，否则在可预见的将来，世界将被化石燃料所困扰，但对于传统投资者来说，它们仍然没有吸引力。

Promises of taking action on climate change and achieving net-zero have become all the rage among global corporations, but the reality is that most continue to prioritize profitability above all else. If large-scale clean energy projects are going to find the financial backing they need to be successful, they need to show that not only are they economically viable, but also more profitable than traditional energy sources. Or if not, then they’re going to have to attract a different class of investors.

对气候变化和实现零零的承诺已成为全球公司的风险，但现实是，大多数人继续将盈利能力优先考虑到所有方面。如果大规模的清洁能源项目将找到成功的财务支持，他们需要表明它们不仅在经济上可行，而且比传统能源更有利可图。或者，如果没有，那么他们将不得不吸引其他类别的投资者。

Decentralizing Clean Energy Funding

分散的清洁能源资金

Surprisingly, the latter option might just be a possibility. While some investors do care about the environment, they care even more about their money, which is why they’ll always invest in the biggest opportunities. And in the energy sector, that

令人惊讶的是，后一种选项可能只是可能性。尽管有些投资者确实关心环境，但他们更关心自己的钱，这就是为什么他们总是会投资最大的机会的原因。在能源领域，