Solana ETF 批准面臨的挑戰

上週，巴西批准了第一個現貨 Solana 交易所交易基金 (ETF)，引發了有關美國批准可能性的爭論。

Brazil recently approved the first spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF), reigniting discussions on the possibility of a US approval for the derivative. However, several financial experts remain skeptical due to concerns over the native token, SOL.

巴西最近批准了首個現貨 Solana 交易所交易基金 (ETF)，重新引發了有關美國批准該衍生品的可能性的討論。然而，由於對原生代幣 SOL 的擔憂，一些金融專家仍然持懷疑態度。

A key issue is the substantial daily issuance of SOL tokens, which critics argue could increase selling pressure and impact the asset’s long-term value.

一個關鍵問題是 SOL 代幣每天大量發行，批評者認為這可能會增加拋售壓力並影響資產的長期價值。

Solana ETF ChallengesExamining the Dune dashboard on August 11, we can observe an issuance of over 162,503 SOL, valued at approximately $25 million. These tokens are distributed as rewards to validators for maintaining network security.

Solana ETF 挑戰檢查 8 月 11 日的 Dune 儀表板，我們可以觀察到發行了超過 162,503 個 SOL，價值約為 2500 萬美元。這些代幣作為獎勵分發給驗證者，以維護網路安全。

One outspoken critic, known as smartestmoney.eth, questioned the market demand for SOL given its high emission rate. “Who will be the next marginal buyer of SOL when a supply overhang of 165,000 daily emissions—with more unlocks to come—overpowers the demand?” he asked rhetorically.

鑑於 SOL 的高排放率，一位名為 smartestmoney.eth 的直言不諱的批評者質疑 SOL 的市場需求。 「當日排放量達到 165,000 的供應過剩（未來還會有更多釋放）超過需求時，誰將成為 SOL 的下一個邊際買家？”他反問。

Smartestmoney.eth also pointed to the lack of an ETF as a factor that could limit institutional interest, especially with key players like Larry Fink turning towards Ethereum.

Smartestmoney.eth 也指出，缺乏 ETF 是一個可能限制機構興趣的因素，尤其是在 Larry Fink 等主要參與者轉向以太坊的情況下。

Moreover, there are concerns that the Brazilian approval of a Solana ETF might not actually benefit local investors. A user known as Caramel expressed skepticism on X (Twitter).

此外，有人擔心巴西批准 Solana ETF 可能實際上不會讓當地投資者受益。一位名為 Caramel 的用戶在 X（Twitter）上表達了懷疑。

“Brazil approved a Solana ETF! Solana’s fully diluted valuation shows that 20% of SOL is still locked. VCs are going to rob this country blind out of their wealth. March 2025, save the date,” pseudonymous X user Caramel said.

「巴西批准了 Solana ETF！ Solana 完全稀釋後的估值顯示 SOL 的 20% 仍被鎖定。創投家將盲目地掠奪這個國家的財富。 2025 年 3 月，保留日期，」化名 X 用戶 Caramel 說。

He referenced the unlock schedule of Solana, owned by the now-defunct FTX, highlighting a significant unlock of 7.5 million SOL scheduled for March 2025.

他提到了現已解散的 FTX 旗下 Solana 的解鎖時間表，強調計劃於 2025 年 3 月解鎖 750 萬個 SOL。

When asked about a Solana ETF, BlackRock’s digital asset head, Robert Mitchnick, also expressed reservations. He pointed to the disparity in market cap and maturity between leading cryptocurrencies and smaller assets like Solana.

當被問及 Solana ETF 時，貝萊德數位資產負責人 Robert Mitchnick 也表達了保留意見。他指出了領先的加密貨幣與 Solana 等較小資產之間的市值和成熟度之間的差異。

“I don’t think we’re going to see a long list of crypto ETFs. If you think of Bitcoin, today it represents about 55% of the market cap. Ethereum is at 18%. The next plausible investible asset is at, like, 3%. It’s just not close to being at that threshold or track record of maturity, liquidity, and etc.,” Mitchnick said.

「我認為我們不會看到一長串加密貨幣 ETF。如果你想想比特幣，它今天約佔市值的 55%。以太坊為 18%。下一個合理的可投資資產大概是 3%。只是距離達到那個門檻或成熟度、流動性等方面的記錄還差得很遠，」米奇尼克說。

In an interview with BeInCrypto, Griffin Ardern, Head at BloFin Research & Options, discussed other potential obstacles for Solana, particularly concerning network stability.

在接受 BeInCrypto 採訪時，BloFin Research & Options 負責人 Griffin Ardern 討論了 Solana 的其他潛在障礙，特別是在網路穩定性方面。

Historically, Solana has experienced several severe downtime incidents, and even the entire blockchain network has rolled back transactions or been unavailable for more than 24 hours. SOL issuers may need to prove that the Solana network is mature and stable enough and that the probability of similar incidents is “low enough for investors to accept” to protect investors’ rights and interests better,” Ardern told BeInCrypto.

歷史上，Solana 曾經歷過多次嚴重的宕機事件，甚至整個區塊鏈網路出現交易回溯或超過 24 小時不可用的情況。 SOL 發行人可能需要證明 Solana 網路足夠成熟和穩定，並且類似事件發生的機率“足夠低，讓投資者能夠接受”，以更好地保護投資者的權益。

Despite these hurdles, some optimism remains in the industry. Notably, asset managers such as VanEck and 21Shares have already filed for a Solana ETF in the US.

儘管存在這些障礙，該行業仍然存在一些樂觀情緒。值得注意的是，VanEck 和 21Shares 等資產管理公司已在美國申請 Solana ETF。

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has a decision-making deadline of mid-March 2025 for these applications. This indicates that while there are significant challenges, the possibility of a Solana ETF is not completely ruled out.

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 對這些申請的決策截止日期為 2025 年 3 月中旬。這表明，儘管存在重大挑戰，但並沒有完全排除 Solana ETF 的可能性。