Solana ETF 批准面临的挑战

上周，巴西批准了首个现货 Solana 交易所交易基金 (ETF)，引发了有关美国批准可能性的争论。

Brazil recently approved the first spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF), reigniting discussions on the possibility of a US approval for the derivative. However, several financial experts remain skeptical due to concerns over the native token, SOL.

巴西最近批准了首个现货 Solana 交易所交易基金 (ETF)，重新引发了有关美国批准该衍生品可能性的讨论。然而，由于对原生代币 SOL 的担忧，一些金融专家仍然持怀疑态度。

A key issue is the substantial daily issuance of SOL tokens, which critics argue could increase selling pressure and impact the asset’s long-term value.

一个关键问题是 SOL 代币每天大量发行，批评者认为这可能会增加抛售压力并影响资产的长期价值。

Solana ETF ChallengesExamining the Dune dashboard on August 11, we can observe an issuance of over 162,503 SOL, valued at approximately $25 million. These tokens are distributed as rewards to validators for maintaining network security.

Solana ETF 挑战检查 8 月 11 日的 Dune 仪表板，我们可以观察到发行了超过 162,503 个 SOL，价值约为 2500 万美元。这些代币作为奖励分发给验证者，以维护网络安全。

One outspoken critic, known as smartestmoney.eth, questioned the market demand for SOL given its high emission rate. “Who will be the next marginal buyer of SOL when a supply overhang of 165,000 daily emissions—with more unlocks to come—overpowers the demand?” he asked rhetorically.

鉴于 SOL 的高排放率，一位名为 smartestmoney.eth 的直言不讳的批评者质疑 SOL 的市场需求。 “当日排放量达到 165,000 的供应过剩（未来还会有更多释放）超过需求时，谁将成为 SOL 的下一个边际买家？”他反问道。

Smartestmoney.eth also pointed to the lack of an ETF as a factor that could limit institutional interest, especially with key players like Larry Fink turning towards Ethereum.

Smartestmoney.eth 还指出，缺乏 ETF 是一个可能限制机构兴趣的因素，尤其是在 Larry Fink 等主要参与者转向以太坊的情况下。

Moreover, there are concerns that the Brazilian approval of a Solana ETF might not actually benefit local investors. A user known as Caramel expressed skepticism on X (Twitter).

此外，有人担心巴西批准 Solana ETF 可能实际上不会让当地投资者受益。一位名为 Caramel 的用户在 X（Twitter）上表达了怀疑。

“Brazil approved a Solana ETF! Solana’s fully diluted valuation shows that 20% of SOL is still locked. VCs are going to rob this country blind out of their wealth. March 2025, save the date,” pseudonymous X user Caramel said.

“巴西批准了 Solana ETF！ Solana 完全稀释后的估值显示 SOL 的 20% 仍被锁定。风险投资家将盲目地掠夺这个国家的财富。 2025 年 3 月，保留日期，”化名 X 用户 Caramel 说道。

He referenced the unlock schedule of Solana, owned by the now-defunct FTX, highlighting a significant unlock of 7.5 million SOL scheduled for March 2025.

他提到了现已解散的 FTX 旗下 Solana 的解锁时间表，强调计划于 2025 年 3 月解锁 750 万个 SOL。

When asked about a Solana ETF, BlackRock’s digital asset head, Robert Mitchnick, also expressed reservations. He pointed to the disparity in market cap and maturity between leading cryptocurrencies and smaller assets like Solana.

当被问及 Solana ETF 时，贝莱德数字资产负责人 Robert Mitchnick 也表达了保留意见。他指出了领先的加密货币与 Solana 等较小资产之间的市值和成熟度之间的差异。

“I don’t think we’re going to see a long list of crypto ETFs. If you think of Bitcoin, today it represents about 55% of the market cap. Ethereum is at 18%. The next plausible investible asset is at, like, 3%. It’s just not close to being at that threshold or track record of maturity, liquidity, and etc.,” Mitchnick said.

“我认为我们不会看到一长串加密货币 ETF。如果你想想比特币，它今天约占市值的 55%。以太坊为 18%。下一个合理的可投资资产大概是 3%。只是距离达到那个门槛或成熟度、流动性等方面的记录还差得很远，”米奇尼克说。

In an interview with BeInCrypto, Griffin Ardern, Head at BloFin Research & Options, discussed other potential obstacles for Solana, particularly concerning network stability.

在接受 BeInCrypto 采访时，BloFin Research & Options 负责人 Griffin Ardern 讨论了 Solana 的其他潜在障碍，特别是在网络稳定性方面。

Historically, Solana has experienced several severe downtime incidents, and even the entire blockchain network has rolled back transactions or been unavailable for more than 24 hours. SOL issuers may need to prove that the Solana network is mature and stable enough and that the probability of similar incidents is “low enough for investors to accept” to protect investors’ rights and interests better,” Ardern told BeInCrypto.

历史上，Solana 曾经历过多次严重的宕机事件，甚至整个区块链网络出现交易回滚或超过 24 小时不可用的情况。 SOL 发行人可能需要证明 Solana 网络足够成熟和稳定，并且类似事件发生的概率“足够低，让投资者能够接受”，以更好地保护投资者的权益。”Ardern 告诉 BeInCrypto。

Despite these hurdles, some optimism remains in the industry. Notably, asset managers such as VanEck and 21Shares have already filed for a Solana ETF in the US.

尽管存在这些障碍，该行业仍然存在一些乐观情绪。值得注意的是，VanEck 和 21Shares 等资产管理公司已在美国申请 Solana ETF。

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has a decision-making deadline of mid-March 2025 for these applications. This indicates that while there are significant challenges, the possibility of a Solana ETF is not completely ruled out.

美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 对这些申请的决策截止日期为 2025 年 3 月中旬。这表明，尽管存在重大挑战，但并没有完全排除 Solana ETF 的可能性。