降息 50 個基點可能會驚動市場

2022 年 3 月開始升息，以遏制因新冠肺炎相關的供應鏈瓶頸和印鈔而導致的嚴重通膨

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to begin cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, 10x Research warns that a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut could raise concerns for risk-on assets like Bitcoin (BTC).

聯準會（Fed）正準備開始降息以刺激經濟。然而，10x Research 警告稱，降息 50 個基點 (bps) 可能會引發人們對比特幣 (BTC) 等風險資產的擔憂。

After raising interest rates in March 2022 to combat high inflation caused by COVID-related supply chain disruptions and monetary easing, the Fed is now set to begin cutting rates. But 10x Research suggests that initiating a 50 bps rate cut could raise alarms for risk-on assets.

聯準會於 2022 年 3 月升息以應對因新冠肺炎相關的供應鏈中斷和貨幣寬鬆造成的高通膨，現在準備開始降息。但 10x Research 表明，啟動 50 個基點的降息可能會對風險資產發出警報。

Data released on September 6, 2024, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that while unemployment fell slightly, the US economy added fewer jobs than expected. This paves the way for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates, as the central bank is unlikely to want high interest rates to cause undue harm to businesses.

美國勞工統計局2024年9月6日公佈的數據顯示，雖然失業率小幅下降，但美國經濟新增就業人數低於預期。這為聯準會開始降息鋪平了道路，因為央行不太可能希望高利率對企業造成不必要的傷害。

As 10x Research notes, a 50 bps rate cut on September 18, 2024, could signal a lack of confidence in the economy. It could also, albeit unintentionally, suggest that the Fed believes it is too late to avert a looming economic downturn, prompting investors to shift away from risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

正如 10x Research 指出的那樣，2024 年 9 月 18 日降息 50 個基點可能表明人們對經濟缺乏信心。儘管是無意的，這也可能表明聯準會認為現在要避免迫在眉睫的經濟衰退為時已晚，促使投資者遠離股票和加密貨幣等風險資產。

For those unfamiliar with the term, one basis point is equal to 1/100th of a percentage point. Typically, central banks around the world increase or decrease interest rates by 25 bps or multiples, depending on the urgency. Notably, in 2022, there were several instances where the Fed hiked interest rates by 50 or even 75 bps to contain soaring inflation.

對於那些不熟悉這個術語的人來說，一個基點等於 1/100 個百分點。通常，世界各地的中央銀行會根據緊急情況升息或降低利率 25 個基點或倍數。值得注意的是，2022年聯準會曾多次升息50甚至75個基點以遏制通膨飆升。

In a note shared with clients on Monday, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated:

10x Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 在周一與客戶分享的說明中表示：

While a 50 basis point cut by the Fed could signal deeper concerns to the markets, the Fed’s primary focus will be mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions.

儘管聯準會降息 50 個基點可能會向市場發出更深層的擔憂，但聯準會的主要重點將是減輕經濟風險，而不是管理市場反應。

He added:

他補充說：

The probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 29%, contrasting our view and the prevailing consensus. The chorus is growing louder that the Fed is behind the curve, having missed signs of labor market weakness after being caught off guard in July.

與我們的觀點和普遍共識相反，降息 50 個基點的可能性僅為 29%。越來越多的人認為，聯準會在 7 月措手不及後錯過了勞動力市場疲軟的跡象，因此落後於情況。

Crucial For The Fed To Walk The Thin Line

聯準會謹慎行事至關重要

In a post on X, macro trader Craig Shapiro shared a similar view to 10x Research, saying that despite the market pressuring the Fed to “go bigger and faster” with rate cuts, it should not begin with a 50 bps cut.

在X 上的一篇文章中，宏觀交易員克雷格·夏皮羅(Craig Shapiro) 與10x Research 分享了類似的觀點，他表示，儘管市場向美聯儲施壓，要求其「降息幅度更大、速度更快”，但不應從降息50 個基點開始。

According to Shapiro, the markets are essentially “addicted to liquidity,” and in its absence, the market “pivots, sells off and finds the lower put strike level” that forces the Fed to accelerate rate cuts and provide more liquidity. Shapiro argues that we will continue to see declines in the value of risk assets until the Fed capitulates and gives the market what it wants.

夏皮羅認為，市場本質上“沉迷於流動性”，如果缺乏流動性，市場就會“轉向、拋售並找到較低的看跌期權執行水平”，從而迫使美聯儲加速降息並提供更多流動性。夏皮羅認為，我們將繼續看到風險資產價值下跌，直到聯準會屈服並滿足市場的需求。

Meanwhile, other analysts believe that Bitcoin could begin another rally around early October 2024. At press time, BTC is trading at $55,296, with a total market cap of over $1.09 trillion, as per CoinGecko.

同時，其他分析師認為，比特幣可能會在2024 年10 月初左右開始另一輪反彈。 。