降息 50 个基点可能会惊动市场

2022 年 3 月开始加息，以遏制因新冠肺炎相关的供应链瓶颈和印钞而导致的严重通胀

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to begin cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, 10x Research warns that a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut could raise concerns for risk-on assets like Bitcoin (BTC).

美联储（Fed）正准备开始降息以刺激经济。然而，10x Research 警告称，降息 50 个基点 (bps) 可能会引发人们对比特币 (BTC) 等风险资产的担忧。

After raising interest rates in March 2022 to combat high inflation caused by COVID-related supply chain disruptions and monetary easing, the Fed is now set to begin cutting rates. But 10x Research suggests that initiating a 50 bps rate cut could raise alarms for risk-on assets.

美联储于 2022 年 3 月加息以应对因新冠肺炎相关的供应链中断和货币宽松造成的高通胀，现在准备开始降息。但 10x Research 表明，启动 50 个基点的降息可能会对风险资产发出警报。

Data released on September 6, 2024, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that while unemployment fell slightly, the US economy added fewer jobs than expected. This paves the way for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates, as the central bank is unlikely to want high interest rates to cause undue harm to businesses.

美国劳工统计局2024年9月6日公布的数据显示，虽然失业率小幅下降，但美国经济新增就业岗位低于预期。这为美联储开始降息铺平了道路，因为央行不太可能希望高利率对企业造成不应有的伤害。

As 10x Research notes, a 50 bps rate cut on September 18, 2024, could signal a lack of confidence in the economy. It could also, albeit unintentionally, suggest that the Fed believes it is too late to avert a looming economic downturn, prompting investors to shift away from risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

正如 10x Research 指出的那样，2024 年 9 月 18 日降息 50 个基点可能表明人们对经济缺乏信心。尽管是无意的，这也可能表明美联储认为现在要避免迫在眉睫的经济衰退为时已晚，从而促使投资者远离股票和加密货币等风险资产。

For those unfamiliar with the term, one basis point is equal to 1/100th of a percentage point. Typically, central banks around the world increase or decrease interest rates by 25 bps or multiples, depending on the urgency. Notably, in 2022, there were several instances where the Fed hiked interest rates by 50 or even 75 bps to contain soaring inflation.

对于那些不熟悉该术语的人来说，一个基点等于 1/100 个百分点。通常，世界各地的央行会根据紧急情况加息或降低利率 25 个基点或倍数。值得注意的是，2022年美联储曾多次加息50甚至75个基点以遏制通胀飙升。

In a note shared with clients on Monday, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated:

10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 在周一与客户分享的一份说明中表示：

While a 50 basis point cut by the Fed could signal deeper concerns to the markets, the Fed’s primary focus will be mitigating economic risks rather than managing market reactions.

尽管美联储降息 50 个基点可能会向市场发出更深层次的担忧，但美联储的主要重点将是减轻经济风险，而不是管理市场反应。

He added:

他补充道：

The probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 29%, contrasting our view and the prevailing consensus. The chorus is growing louder that the Fed is behind the curve, having missed signs of labor market weakness after being caught off guard in July.

与我们的观点和普遍共识相反，降息 50 个基点的可能性仅为 29%。越来越多的人认为，美联储在 7 月份措手不及之后错过了劳动力市场疲软的迹象，因此落后于形势。

Crucial For The Fed To Walk The Thin Line

美联储谨慎行事至关重要

In a post on X, macro trader Craig Shapiro shared a similar view to 10x Research, saying that despite the market pressuring the Fed to “go bigger and faster” with rate cuts, it should not begin with a 50 bps cut.

在 X 上的一篇文章中，宏观交易员克雷格·夏皮罗 (Craig Shapiro) 与 10x Research 分享了类似的观点，他表示，尽管市场向美联储施压，要求其“降息幅度更大、速度更快”，但不应从降息 50 个基点开始。

According to Shapiro, the markets are essentially “addicted to liquidity,” and in its absence, the market “pivots, sells off and finds the lower put strike level” that forces the Fed to accelerate rate cuts and provide more liquidity. Shapiro argues that we will continue to see declines in the value of risk assets until the Fed capitulates and gives the market what it wants.

夏皮罗认为，市场本质上“沉迷于流动性”，如果缺乏流动性，市场就会“转向、抛售并找到较低的看跌期权执行水平”，从而迫使美联储加速降息并提供更多流动性。夏皮罗认为，我们将继续看到风险资产价值下跌，直到美联储屈服并满足市场的需求。

Meanwhile, other analysts believe that Bitcoin could begin another rally around early October 2024. At press time, BTC is trading at $55,296, with a total market cap of over $1.09 trillion, as per CoinGecko.

与此同时，其他分析师认为，比特币可能会在 2024 年 10 月初左右开始另一轮反弹。根据 CoinGecko 的数据，截至发稿时，比特币的交易价格为 55,296 美元，总市值超过 1.09 万亿美元。