隨著債券市場反對美國財政穩定的幻想，比特幣和黃金等資產又重新成為了人們關注的焦點。

傳奇交易者和宏觀戰略家警告說，通貨膨脹調整後的收益率和通貨膨脹期望之間的不匹配日益增長，這表明了信心的深刻裂縫。

In a surprising turn of events, bond markets are signaling a rejection of U.S. fiscal stability, pushing assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold back into the spotlight. As the kayfabe of fiscal discipline unravels, these crypto and precious metals are positioned to benefit, offering investors protection from the fragile bond market and over-leveraged financial system.

令人驚訝的是，債券市場表明拒絕了美國財政穩定性，將比特幣（BTC）和黃金等資產恢復到焦點。作為財政學科的凱法貝（Kayfabe），這些加密貨幣和貴金屬的位置有益於投資者，從而保護投資者免受脆弱的債券市場和過度驗證的金融體系的保護。

Legions of legendary traders and macro strategists are warning that a growing mismatch between inflation-adjusted yields and inflation expectations exposes deep cracks in confidence. This structural shift is evident in the ballooning differential between real Treasury yields and breakeven inflation.

傳奇貿易商和宏觀戰略家的軍團警告說，通貨膨脹調整後的收益率和通貨膨脹期望之間的不匹配越來越多，這表明了信心的深刻裂縫。這種結構性轉移在實際國庫產量和盈虧平衡通貨膨脹之間的氣囊差異中很明顯。

Rising From 2001 Lows As Fed Pivots On U.S. Fiscal Path

從2001年的低點升起，作為美國財政路徑上的樞軸

For the second time in less than a year, the 30-year Treasury yield broke above the 5% threshold last week. Meanwhile, the real yield on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) surged past 2.7%, reaching its highest point since 2.8% in 2001.

在不到一年的時間內，第二次30年的財政收益率超過了上週5％的門檻。同時，國庫通貨膨脹保護證券（TIP）的實際收益率飆升了2.7％，達到了2001年以來2.8％以來的最高點。

However, beneath that headline figure lies a more serious issue. The magnitude of this increase is showing that investors are demanding greater remuneration due to escalating concerns about the U.S. budgetary trajectory and inflation.

但是，在這個標題之下，這是一個更嚴重的問題。這種增長的規模表明，由於對美國預算軌跡和通貨膨脹的擔憂，投資者要求更高的報酬。

According to projections, the U.S. national debt could swell by $22 trillion in the next ten years, reaching $36.22 trillion by May 19. Moreover, by 2055, the debt-to-GDP ratio would have skyrocketed to 156%. These startling figures are making investors reconsider conventional safe havens and escalating concerns about a full-blown U.S. fiscal crisis.

根據預測，美國國家債務在未來十年內可能會增加22萬億美元，到5月19日到36.22萬億美元。此外，到2055年，債務與GDP的比率將飆升至156％。這些令人震驚的數字使投資者重新考慮了傳統的避風港，併升級了對美國財政危機的擔憂。

Real Yields Spike As FX-Bond Correlation Breaks Down

當FX鍵相關分解時，實際產量會尖峰

Another crucial observation is the breakdown in correlation between foreign exchange and bond yields. Typically, rising yields tend to strengthen the U.S. dollar. However, that relationship has begun to falter. Since April, EUR/USD has witnessed a substantial surge despite, or perhaps because of, the sharp increase in the U.S. two-year yield. This signals that investors are pulling back from U.S. assets.

另一個關鍵觀察是外彙和債券收益率之間的相關性分解。通常，增加的收益率往往會增強美元。但是，這種關係已經開始步履蹣跚。自4月以來，儘管美國兩年的收益率急劇增長，但歐元/美元就目睹了大幅增長。這表明投資者正在美國資產退縮。

Furthermore, the 5y5y forward real interest rate has now climbed to 2.5%, surpassing levels reached during past Fed tightening cycles, according to Brookings’ economist, Robin Brooks. This shift suggests that long-term worries are now pivoting towards structural debt issues rather than cyclical monetary policy.

此外，根據布魯金斯的經濟學家羅賓·布魯克斯（Robin Brooks）的說法，5Y5Y前進的實際利率現已上漲至2.5％，在過去的飼養收緊週期中達到的水平超過了水平。這一轉變表明，長期擔憂現在正在轉向結構性債務問題，而不是周期性的貨幣政策。

As Pseudonymous Analyst EndGame Macro notes, the market is now demanding the steepest real yield in living memory, not due to inflation but due to a lack of U.S. fiscal discipline. That shift in sentiment is driving greater demand for Bitcoin and gold as a hedge. Financial commentators are also noting that investors are preparing for potential capital controls, yield curve control, and increased volatility in the bond market.

正如化名分析師最終遊戲宏所指出的那樣，市場現在要求在生活記憶中獲得最陡峭的真正產量，不是由於通貨膨脹，而是由於缺乏美國財政紀律所致。情緒的轉變是推動對比特幣和黃金作為樹籬的更大需求。財務評論員還指出，投資者正在為潛在的資本控制，收益曲線控制和債券市場的波動增加做準備。

Arthur Hayes And Tudor Jones Signal Strong Bitcoin And Gold Rally

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）和都鐸·瓊斯（Tudor Jones）信號強烈比特幣和金色集會

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, and Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire founder of Tudor Investment Corp., foresee a strong rally for Bitcoin and gold as rising bond market turbulence pushes investors toward less correlated assets.

Crypto Exchange Bitmex的前首席執行官Arthur Hayes和Tudor Investment Corp.的億萬富翁創始人Paul Tudor Jones預見了比特幣和黃金的強大集會，因為上升的債券市場動盪將投資者推向了較少的相關資產。

In a recent interview with Blockware Solutions, Hayes predicts that the U.S. will eventually adopt yield curve control, a policy designed to keep interest rates low despite inflation. According to him, this move will benefit Bitcoin and gold as they are less sensitive to interest rate changes.

海斯在最近對Blockware Solutions的採訪中預測，美國最終將採用收益曲線控制，這項政策旨在儘管通貨膨脹，旨在保持利率較低。據他介紹，這一舉動將使比特幣和黃金受益，因為它們對利率變化不太敏感。

“I think they’re going to have to do yield curve control. They’re going to be forced to do it because they cannot allow the U.S. Treasury to go bankrupt. They’re going to have to keep rates low, which will benefit Bitcoin and gold because they’re not really affected by interest rates.”

“我認為他們將不得不進行收益曲線控制。他們將被迫這樣做，因為他們不能允許美國財政部破產。他們將不得不保持較低的利率，這將使比特幣和黃金受益，因為它們並沒有受到利率的真正影響。”

Meanwhile, Tudor Jones anticipates that the U.S. government will choose inflation over austerity measures to reduce the national debt. He predicts that real yields will continue to rise, diverging from inflation expectations.

同時，都鐸·瓊斯（Tudor Jones）預計，美國政府將選擇通貨膨脹而不是緊縮措施來減少國債。他預測，實際收益率將繼續上升，與通貨膨脹的預期不同。

“I think they’re going to try to inflate their way out of this. I think they’re going to try to keep the value of U.S. Treasury bonds high,” Tudor Jones said, adding that he expects to see a continuation of the divergence between real yields and inflation expectations.

Tudor Jones說：“我認為他們將試圖擺脫困境。我認為他們將試圖保持美國財政部債券的價值。”

With real yields diverging and financial repression looming, Bitcoin and gold offer compelling safe-haven value in a world where inflation outpaces savings returns. As investors seek protection from the fragile macroeconomic landscape, interest in these assets is likely to remain elevated.

隨著實際收益率的分歧和財務壓抑的迫在眉睫，比特幣和黃金在通貨膨脹儲蓄回報的世界中，比特幣和黃金提供了令人信服的安全價值。當投資者尋求保護範圍內的宏觀經濟景觀時，對這些資產的興趣可能會升高。

What’s Next: Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Signals Risk-On Environment

下一

Despite the increase in real yields, the BTC/gold ratio has remained stable in recent months, suggesting that risk appetite among investors is still present. However, it’s crucial to exercise caution as any sharp volatility in the U.S. Treasury market could quickly impact global liquidity.

儘管實際收益率提高，但最近幾個月，BTC/黃金比率一直保持穩定，這表明投資者的風險仍然存在。但是，要謹慎行事至關重要，因為美國財政部市場的任何急劇波動都可能迅速影響全球流動性。

A substantial portion

大部分