随着债券市场反对美国财政稳定的幻想，比特币和黄金等资产又重新成为了人们关注的焦点。

传奇交易者和宏观战略家警告说，通货膨胀调整后的收益率和通货膨胀期望之间的不匹配日益增长，这表明了信心的深刻裂缝。

In a surprising turn of events, bond markets are signaling a rejection of U.S. fiscal stability, pushing assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold back into the spotlight. As the kayfabe of fiscal discipline unravels, these crypto and precious metals are positioned to benefit, offering investors protection from the fragile bond market and over-leveraged financial system.

令人惊讶的是，债券市场表明拒绝了美国财政稳定性，将比特币（BTC）和黄金等资产恢复到焦点。作为财政学科的凯法贝（Kayfabe），这些加密货币和贵金属的位置有益于投资者，从而保护投资者免受脆弱的债券市场和过度验证的金融体系的保护。

Legions of legendary traders and macro strategists are warning that a growing mismatch between inflation-adjusted yields and inflation expectations exposes deep cracks in confidence. This structural shift is evident in the ballooning differential between real Treasury yields and breakeven inflation.

传奇贸易商和宏观战略家的军团警告说，通货膨胀调整后的收益率和通货膨胀期望之间的不匹配越来越多，这表明了信心的深刻裂缝。这种结构性转移在实际国库产量和盈亏平衡通货膨胀之间的气囊差异中很明显。

Rising From 2001 Lows As Fed Pivots On U.S. Fiscal Path

从2001年的低点升起，作为美国财政路径上的枢轴

For the second time in less than a year, the 30-year Treasury yield broke above the 5% threshold last week. Meanwhile, the real yield on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) surged past 2.7%, reaching its highest point since 2.8% in 2001.

在不到一年的时间内，第二次30年的财政收益率超过了上周5％的门槛。同时，国库通货膨胀保护证券（TIP）的实际收益率飙升了2.7％，达到了2001年以来2.8％以来的最高点。

However, beneath that headline figure lies a more serious issue. The magnitude of this increase is showing that investors are demanding greater remuneration due to escalating concerns about the U.S. budgetary trajectory and inflation.

但是，在这个标题之下，这是一个更严重的问题。这种增长的规模表明，由于对美国预算轨迹和通货膨胀的担忧，投资者要求更高的报酬。

According to projections, the U.S. national debt could swell by $22 trillion in the next ten years, reaching $36.22 trillion by May 19. Moreover, by 2055, the debt-to-GDP ratio would have skyrocketed to 156%. These startling figures are making investors reconsider conventional safe havens and escalating concerns about a full-blown U.S. fiscal crisis.

根据预测，美国国家债务在未来十年内可能会增加22万亿美元，到5月19日到36.22万亿美元。此外，到2055年，债务与GDP的比率将飙升至156％。这些令人震惊的数字使投资者重新考虑了传统的避风港，并升级了对美国财政危机的担忧。

Real Yields Spike As FX-Bond Correlation Breaks Down

当FX键相关分解时，实际产量会尖峰

Another crucial observation is the breakdown in correlation between foreign exchange and bond yields. Typically, rising yields tend to strengthen the U.S. dollar. However, that relationship has begun to falter. Since April, EUR/USD has witnessed a substantial surge despite, or perhaps because of, the sharp increase in the U.S. two-year yield. This signals that investors are pulling back from U.S. assets.

另一个关键观察是外汇和债券收益率之间的相关性分解。通常，增加的收益率往往会增强美元。但是，这种关系已经开始步履蹒跚。自4月以来，尽管美国两年的收益率急剧增长，但欧元/美元就目睹了大幅增长。这表明投资者正在美国资产退缩。

Furthermore, the 5y5y forward real interest rate has now climbed to 2.5%, surpassing levels reached during past Fed tightening cycles, according to Brookings’ economist, Robin Brooks. This shift suggests that long-term worries are now pivoting towards structural debt issues rather than cyclical monetary policy.

此外，根据布鲁金斯的经济学家罗宾·布鲁克斯（Robin Brooks）的说法，5Y5Y前进的实际利率现已上涨至2.5％，在过去的饲养收紧周期中达到的水平超过了水平。这一转变表明，长期担忧现在正在转向结构性债务问题，而不是周期性的货币政策。

As Pseudonymous Analyst EndGame Macro notes, the market is now demanding the steepest real yield in living memory, not due to inflation but due to a lack of U.S. fiscal discipline. That shift in sentiment is driving greater demand for Bitcoin and gold as a hedge. Financial commentators are also noting that investors are preparing for potential capital controls, yield curve control, and increased volatility in the bond market.

正如化名分析师最终游戏宏所指出的那样，市场现在要求在生活记忆中获得最陡峭的真正产量，不是由于通货膨胀，而是由于缺乏美国财政纪律所致。情绪的转变是推动对比特币和黄金作为树篱的更大需求。财务评论员还指出，投资者正在为潜在的资本控制，收益曲线控制和债券市场的波动增加做准备。

Arthur Hayes And Tudor Jones Signal Strong Bitcoin And Gold Rally

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）和都铎·琼斯（Tudor Jones）信号强烈比特币和金色集会

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, and Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire founder of Tudor Investment Corp., foresee a strong rally for Bitcoin and gold as rising bond market turbulence pushes investors toward less correlated assets.

Crypto Exchange Bitmex的前首席执行官Arthur Hayes和Tudor Investment Corp.的亿万富翁创始人Paul Tudor Jones预见了比特币和黄金的强大集会，因为上升的债券市场动荡将投资者推向了较少的相关资产。

In a recent interview with Blockware Solutions, Hayes predicts that the U.S. will eventually adopt yield curve control, a policy designed to keep interest rates low despite inflation. According to him, this move will benefit Bitcoin and gold as they are less sensitive to interest rate changes.

海斯在最近对Blockware Solutions的采访中预测，美国最终将采用收益曲线控制，这项政策旨在尽管通货膨胀，旨在保持利率较低。据他介绍，这一举动将使比特币和黄金受益，因为它们对利率变化不太敏感。

“I think they’re going to have to do yield curve control. They’re going to be forced to do it because they cannot allow the U.S. Treasury to go bankrupt. They’re going to have to keep rates low, which will benefit Bitcoin and gold because they’re not really affected by interest rates.”

“我认为他们将不得不进行收益曲线控制。他们将被迫这样做，因为他们不能允许美国财政部破产。他们将不得不保持较低的利率，这将使比特币和黄金受益，因为它们并没有受到利率的真正影响。”

Meanwhile, Tudor Jones anticipates that the U.S. government will choose inflation over austerity measures to reduce the national debt. He predicts that real yields will continue to rise, diverging from inflation expectations.

同时，都铎·琼斯（Tudor Jones）预计，美国政府将选择通货膨胀而不是紧缩措施来减少国债。他预测，实际收益率将继续上升，与通货膨胀的预期不同。

“I think they’re going to try to inflate their way out of this. I think they’re going to try to keep the value of U.S. Treasury bonds high,” Tudor Jones said, adding that he expects to see a continuation of the divergence between real yields and inflation expectations.

Tudor Jones说：“我认为他们将试图摆脱困境。我认为他们将试图保持美国财政部债券的价值。”

With real yields diverging and financial repression looming, Bitcoin and gold offer compelling safe-haven value in a world where inflation outpaces savings returns. As investors seek protection from the fragile macroeconomic landscape, interest in these assets is likely to remain elevated.

随着实际收益率的分歧和财务压抑的迫在眉睫，比特币和黄金在通货膨胀储蓄回报的世界中，比特币和黄金提供了令人信服的安全价值。当投资者寻求保护范围内的宏观经济景观时，对这些资产的兴趣可能会升高。

What’s Next: Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Signals Risk-On Environment

下一

Despite the increase in real yields, the BTC/gold ratio has remained stable in recent months, suggesting that risk appetite among investors is still present. However, it’s crucial to exercise caution as any sharp volatility in the U.S. Treasury market could quickly impact global liquidity.

尽管实际收益率提高，但最近几个月，BTC/黄金比率一直保持稳定，这表明投资者的风险仍然存在。但是，要谨慎行事至关重要，因为美国财政部市场的任何急剧波动都可能迅速影响全球流动性。

A substantial portion

大部分