Bitwise Cio Matt Hougan預測比特幣（BTC）將於2025年底達到200,000美元

BITWISE的首席投資官Matt Hougan預測，由於機構需求的增加，到2025年底，比特幣（BTC）將在2025年底達到200,000美元。

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, predicts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to a supply shock from heightened institutional demand, according to an interview with at Consensus 2025.

BITWISE的首席投資官Matt Hougan預測比特幣（BTC）將在2025年底到2025年末達到200,000美元，這是由於機構需求的供應衝擊增加了。

Bitwise's Bitcoin price prediction model is driven exclusively by supply and demand metrics, and Hougan explained that the forecast is based on simple arithmetic.

Bitwise的比特幣價格預測模型僅由供求指標驅動，Hougan解釋說，預測基於簡單的算術。

"We're not trying to predict what institutions are thinking or what the news will be next week. It's really just a matter of supply and demand," Hougan said.

霍根說：“我們並不是要預測機構在想什麼或下週將是什麼新聞。這實際上只是供需問題。”

"We're starting with the demand side. We know that there are about 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be mined, and we're currently at about 19.7 million. So there's not a lot of supply left."

“我們從需求方面開始。我們知道，大約有2100萬比特幣將被開採，目前我們約有1,970萬。因此，剩下的供應不多。”

"I think eventually that will exhaust sellers at the $100,000 level where we have been stuck, and I think the next stopping point above that is $200,000."

“我認為最終將以我們被卡住的100,000美元水平排氣，我認為下一個停止點是20萬美元。”

suggest that institutional demand for Bitcoin is increasing rapidly. For example, Bitwise manages five exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including three Bitcoin ETFs.

表明對比特幣的機構需求正在迅速增加。例如，Bitwise管理五個交換貿易資金（ETF），包括三個比特幣ETF。

"We launched our flagship ETF in early 2021, and we now have nearly $4 billion in assets under management in our Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and about $5 billion in total assets under management across our five ETFs."

“我們於2021年初推出了旗艦ETF，現在我們在比特幣ETF（BITB）中擁有將近40億美元的資產，在我們五個ETF中管理的總資產約為50億美元。”

This institutional demand has also bolstered the market with liquidity, likely making the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, with significant drawdowns of up to 90% in between cycles, a "vestige of the past," Hougan said.

霍根說，這一機構需求也以流動性增強了市場，這可能使得四年的比特幣減半週期，而循環之間的大量下降卻高達90％，這是“過去的遺跡”。

"I think we're entering a new era of crypto investing with institutions, and I think that's really what's driving the price of Bitcoin up."

“我認為我們正在與機構一起進入加密貨幣投資的新時代，而且我認為這確實是推動比特幣價格上漲的原因。”

One of the key corporate players driving Bitcoin demand is Strategy, which has pioneered the BTC reserve strategy and currently holds 568,840 BTC in its corporate treasury, according to SaylorTracker.

Saylortracker表示，策略是駕駛比特幣需求的關鍵公司之一，該戰略率先採用了BTC儲備戰略，目前在其公司財政部擁有568,840 BTC。

Author and Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston said recently that Strategy is "synthetically halving Bitcoin" by outpacing the newly mined supply.

作者兼比特幣分析師亞當·利文斯頓（Adam Livingston）最近表示，通過超過新礦的供應量，戰略“將比特幣綜合減半”。

"If you look at the new BTC being mined each year, it's around 150K-180K BTC, whereas Strategy is buying at a pace that will likely exceed that this year."

“如果您每年查看開采的新BTC，則約為150k-180k BTC，而戰略的購買速度可能會超過今年。”

If Strategy continues its rapid pace of accumulation, it will likely control Bitcoin lending markets.

如果戰略繼續其迅速的積累速度，它可能會控制比特幣貸款市場。

"BTC's global cost of capital will no longer be set by 'the market.' It will be set by the gravitational policies of the first Bitcoin superpower: Strategy," Livingston wrote.

“ BTC的全球資本成本將不再由'市場'確定。利文斯頓寫道：“這將由第一個比特幣超級大國的引力政策設定。 ”

Strategy's effect on Bitcoin's supply is so pronounced that market analyst Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin's supply is now deflationary, with an annual deflation rate of -2.33%.

策略對比特幣供應的影響是如此明顯，以至於市場分析師Ki Young Ju說，比特幣的供應現在為放置，年度放置率為-2.33％。

The increased demand has led some analysts to forecast a $1 million Bitcoin price tag in the coming decade.

需求的增加導致一些分析師預測未來十年的比特幣價格為100萬美元。

However, analyst and investor Arthur Hayes recently predicted BTC would hit $1 million in three years. Hayes argued that a deteriorating macroeconomic environment and liquidity injected from central banks will continue to drive prices higher.

但是，分析師兼投資者亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）最近預測，BTC將在三年內達到100萬美元。海耶斯認為，從中央銀行注入的宏觀經濟環境和流動性惡化將繼續提高價格。