Bitwise Cio Matt Hougan预测比特币（BTC）将于2025年底达到200,000美元

BITWISE的首席投资官Matt Hougan预测，由于机构需求的增加，到2025年底，比特币（BTC）将在2025年底达到200,000美元。

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, predicts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to a supply shock from heightened institutional demand, according to an interview with at Consensus 2025.

BITWISE的首席投资官Matt Hougan预测比特币（BTC）将在2025年底到2025年末达到200,000美元，这是由于机构需求的供应冲击增加了。

Bitwise's Bitcoin price prediction model is driven exclusively by supply and demand metrics, and Hougan explained that the forecast is based on simple arithmetic.

Bitwise的比特币价格预测模型仅由供求指标驱动，Hougan解释说，预测基于简单的算术。

"We're not trying to predict what institutions are thinking or what the news will be next week. It's really just a matter of supply and demand," Hougan said.

霍根说：“我们并不是要预测机构在想什么或下周将是什么新闻。这实际上只是供需问题。”

"We're starting with the demand side. We know that there are about 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be mined, and we're currently at about 19.7 million. So there's not a lot of supply left."

“我们从需求方面开始。我们知道，大约有2100万比特币将被开采，目前我们约有1,970万。因此，剩下的供应不多。”

"I think eventually that will exhaust sellers at the $100,000 level where we have been stuck, and I think the next stopping point above that is $200,000."

“我认为最终将以我们被卡住的100,000美元水平排气，我认为下一个停止点是20万美元。”

suggest that institutional demand for Bitcoin is increasing rapidly. For example, Bitwise manages five exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including three Bitcoin ETFs.

表明对比特币的机构需求正在迅速增加。例如，Bitwise管理五个交换贸易资金（ETF），包括三个比特币ETF。

"We launched our flagship ETF in early 2021, and we now have nearly $4 billion in assets under management in our Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and about $5 billion in total assets under management across our five ETFs."

“我们于2021年初推出了旗舰ETF，现在我们在比特币ETF（BITB）中拥有将近40亿美元的资产，在我们五个ETF中管理的总资产约为50亿美元。”

This institutional demand has also bolstered the market with liquidity, likely making the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, with significant drawdowns of up to 90% in between cycles, a "vestige of the past," Hougan said.

霍根说，这一机构需求也以流动性增强了市场，这可能使得四年的比特币减半周期，而循环之间的大量下降却高达90％，这是“过去的遗迹”。

"I think we're entering a new era of crypto investing with institutions, and I think that's really what's driving the price of Bitcoin up."

“我认为我们正在与机构一起进入加密货币投资的新时代，而且我认为这确实是推动比特币价格上涨的原因。”

One of the key corporate players driving Bitcoin demand is Strategy, which has pioneered the BTC reserve strategy and currently holds 568,840 BTC in its corporate treasury, according to SaylorTracker.

Saylortracker表示，策略是驾驶比特币需求的关键公司之一，该战略率先采用了BTC储备战略，目前在其公司财政部拥有568,840 BTC。

Author and Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston said recently that Strategy is "synthetically halving Bitcoin" by outpacing the newly mined supply.

作者兼比特币分析师亚当·利文斯顿（Adam Livingston）最近表示，通过超过新矿的供应量，战略“将比特币综合减半”。

"If you look at the new BTC being mined each year, it's around 150K-180K BTC, whereas Strategy is buying at a pace that will likely exceed that this year."

“如果您每年查看开采的新BTC，则约为150k-180k BTC，而战略的购买速度可能会超过今年。”

If Strategy continues its rapid pace of accumulation, it will likely control Bitcoin lending markets.

如果战略继续其迅速的积累速度，它可能会控制比特币贷款市场。

"BTC's global cost of capital will no longer be set by 'the market.' It will be set by the gravitational policies of the first Bitcoin superpower: Strategy," Livingston wrote.

“ BTC的全球资本成本将不再由'市场'确定。利文斯顿写道：“这将由第一个比特币超级大国的引力政策设定。”

Strategy's effect on Bitcoin's supply is so pronounced that market analyst Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin's supply is now deflationary, with an annual deflation rate of -2.33%.

策略对比特币供应的影响是如此明显，以至于市场分析师Ki Young Ju说，比特币的供应现在为放置，年度放置率为-2.33％。

The increased demand has led some analysts to forecast a $1 million Bitcoin price tag in the coming decade.

需求的增加导致一些分析师预测未来十年的比特币价格为100万美元。

However, analyst and investor Arthur Hayes recently predicted BTC would hit $1 million in three years. Hayes argued that a deteriorating macroeconomic environment and liquidity injected from central banks will continue to drive prices higher.

但是，分析师兼投资者亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）最近预测，BTC将在三年内达到100万美元。海耶斯认为，从中央银行注入的宏观经济环境和流动性恶化将继续提高价格。