Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Will Reach $200,000 by the End of 2025

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, predicts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to a supply shock from heightened institutional demand.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, predicts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to a supply shock from heightened institutional demand, according to an interview with at Consensus 2025.

Bitwise's Bitcoin price prediction model is driven exclusively by supply and demand metrics, and Hougan explained that the forecast is based on simple arithmetic.

"We're not trying to predict what institutions are thinking or what the news will be next week. It's really just a matter of supply and demand," Hougan said.

"We're starting with the demand side. We know that there are about 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be mined, and we're currently at about 19.7 million. So there's not a lot of supply left."

"I think eventually that will exhaust sellers at the $100,000 level where we have been stuck, and I think the next stopping point above that is $200,000."

suggest that institutional demand for Bitcoin is increasing rapidly. For example, Bitwise manages five exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including three Bitcoin ETFs.

"We launched our flagship ETF in early 2021, and we now have nearly $4 billion in assets under management in our Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and about $5 billion in total assets under management across our five ETFs."

This institutional demand has also bolstered the market with liquidity, likely making the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, with significant drawdowns of up to 90% in between cycles, a "vestige of the past," Hougan said.

"I think we're entering a new era of crypto investing with institutions, and I think that's really what's driving the price of Bitcoin up."

One of the key corporate players driving Bitcoin demand is Strategy, which has pioneered the BTC reserve strategy and currently holds 568,840 BTC in its corporate treasury, according to SaylorTracker.

Author and Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston said recently that Strategy is "synthetically halving Bitcoin" by outpacing the newly mined supply.

"If you look at the new BTC being mined each year, it's around 150K-180K BTC, whereas Strategy is buying at a pace that will likely exceed that this year."

If Strategy continues its rapid pace of accumulation, it will likely control Bitcoin lending markets.

"BTC's global cost of capital will no longer be set by 'the market.' It will be set by the gravitational policies of the first Bitcoin superpower: Strategy," Livingston wrote.

Strategy's effect on Bitcoin's supply is so pronounced that market analyst Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin's supply is now deflationary, with an annual deflation rate of -2.33%.

The increased demand has led some analysts to forecast a $1 million Bitcoin price tag in the coming decade.

However, analyst and investor Arthur Hayes recently predicted BTC would hit $1 million in three years. Hayes argued that a deteriorating macroeconomic environment and liquidity injected from central banks will continue to drive prices higher.