比特幣/黃金比率打破了其歷史記錄，每盎司3,000美元，比特幣搖擺。

2024年3月14日，將繼續保持關鍵日期。自2012年以來，比特幣/黃金比率已經打破了其向上的支撐線。

Bitcoin has been struggling as gold shatters historical records. Is the reign of “digital gold” threatened by the renewed luster of the precious metal?

隨著黃金破碎的歷史記錄，比特幣一直在掙扎。 “數字黃金”的統治是否受到珍貴金屬的新光澤的威脅？

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling as gold edges closer to $3,000 an ounce, breaking new historical records. This move has also seen the Bitcoin/gold ratio, a symbolic pillar for twelve years in the crypto sphere, break its upward trend. A troubling sign for crypto enthusiasts.

比特幣（BTC）一直在掙扎，金邊緣接近每盎司3,000美元，打破了新的歷史記錄。這一舉動還看到了比特幣/金比，這是一個在加密球體中十二年的象徵性支柱，破壞了其上升趨勢。加密愛好者的令人不安的標誌。

But how did we get here? And what does this mean for the two assets in the current geopolitical and economic climate?

但是我們是怎麼到達這裡的？這對當前地緣政治和經濟氣候中的兩個資產意味著什麼？

Bitcoin/gold: the break of a symbolic pillar

比特幣/金：象徵性支柱的突破

Monday, March 14, 2024, will remain a pivotal date. The Bitcoin/gold ratio has broken its upward support line, which has been in place since 2012. A technical fracture that is significant. Indeed, from a technical standpoint, bitcoin is losing its status as a safe haven against gold, at least in the short term.

2024年3月14日，星期一，將保持關鍵日期。比特幣/黃金比率打破了其向上的支撐線，該支持線自2012年以來就已經到位了。這是一種嚴重的技術斷裂。的確，從技術角度來看，比特幣至少在短期內失去了反對黃金的避風港的地位。

For NorthStar, a well-known analyst on X (formerly Twitter), this break now creates a fractal similar to the one observed from March 2021 to March 2022, a period during which BTC experienced a 60% crash. Is a nightmarish scenario below $65,000 unfolding?

對於X（以前是Twitter）的著名分析師Northstar來說，此休息現在創造了類似於2021年3月至2022年3月觀察到的分形，在此期間，BTC經歷了60％的崩潰。噩夢般的場景低於65,000美元嗎？

The Bitcoin/gold ratio is breaking a key support level, which could be a bearish signal. In addition, we can see that the ratio is currently in a downward trend, which is also bearish.

比特幣/黃金比率打破了關鍵支持水平，這可能是看跌信號。此外，我們可以看到該比率目前處於下降趨勢，這也是看跌的。

The zoom out shows that the ratio has been in an uptrend since 2012. However, this trend seems to have come to an end in recent months.

放大表明，自2012年以來，該比率一直處於上升趨勢。但是，最近幾個月的這種趨勢似乎已經結束。

The implication of this is that bitcoin is rapidly losing its gains against gold. This could be due to a number of factors, such as the increasing risk aversion among investors.

這意味著比特幣正在迅速失去對黃金的收益。這可能是由於許多因素，例如投資者之間的風險規避不斷增加。

As the macro environment deteriorates, investors are turning to safe-haven assets like gold.

隨著宏觀環境的惡化，投資者正在轉向黃金等安全資產。

The world is entering a period of great economic and political uncertainty. The war in Ukraine, the climate crisis, and the threat of nuclear war are just some of the challenges that we face.

世界正在進入一個巨大的經濟和政治不確定性時期。烏克蘭的戰爭，氣候危機以及核戰爭的威脅只是我們面臨的一些挑戰。

The capital exodus: a symptom of structural distrust

資本出埃及記：結構不信任的症狀

The figures speak for themselves. Since January 2025, Gold ETFs have siphoned an astounding $23.18 billion in global inflows.

這些人物自言自語。自2025年1月以來，Gold ETF偷竊了驚人的231.8億美元的全球流入。

Among them, American investors alone contributed $6.48 billion to this "yellow metal" rally, a record pace.

其中，僅美國投資者為這次“黃金金屬”集會（創紀錄的步伐）貢獻了64.8億美元。

At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of $1.46 billion. A striking contrast that underscores the bipolar nature of market sentiment.

同時，比特幣ETF的淨流出為14.6億美元。一個驚人的對比，強調了市場情緒的雙相性質。

What explains this capital exodus from BTC, usually a sign of liquidity stress?

是什麼解釋了BTC的這一首都出埃及記，通常是流動性壓力的標誌？

Trumpist policies are heating up the markets. Tariffs against China and Mexico have rekindled fears of 2018, pushing up inflation and boding ill for a possible recession.

特朗普主義政策正在加熱市場。對中國和墨西哥的關稅重新點燃了對2018年的恐懼，為可能的衰退推動了通貨膨脹和屍體疾病。

As a result, investors are withdrawing from volatile assets to seek refuge in gold, whose physical reserves offer a point of attachment in a fractured world. Bitcoin, often seen as a speculative asset, is paying the price for its immaturity.

結果，投資者正在從波動的資產中退出，以尋求黃金避難所，其物理儲備在破碎的世界中提供了依戀點。比特幣通常被視為投機資產，正在為其不成熟而支付價格。

To make matters worse, BTC's liquidity is becoming its Achilles' heel. Massive ETF outflows are creating a snowball effect: less capital leads to less stability.

更糟糕的是，BTC的流動性正成為其致命弱點。大量ETF流出正在產生雪球效應：減少資本會導致穩定性降低。

Furthermore, Glassnode points out that new investors have already lost $100 million in six weeks as they are quickly enticed and then abandon the asset due to repeated corrections. A vicious cycle that painfully recalls past crashes.

此外，GlassNode指出，新的投資者在六週內已經損失了1億美元，因為他們很快被吸引，然後由於一再進行糾正而放棄了資產。惡性循環痛苦地回想起過去的崩潰。

The bottom line: the Bitcoin/gold ratio breaking and ETFs hemorrhaging paint a bleak picture, but not necessarily irreversible. Bitcoin has survived far worse crises. Its volatility, a double-edged sword, could propel it to new highs just as quickly.

最重要的是：比特幣/黃金比率破壞和ETF出血繪畫一幅黯淡的圖片，但不一定是不可逆轉的。比特幣在危機中倖存下來。它的波動性是一把雙刃劍，可以將其推向新的高點。