比特幣週末交易量今年跌至歷史新低 16%

這次下跌是在現貨比特幣交易所交易基金推出之後發生的，該基金似乎改變了比特幣的交易週期，使其更符合傳統股票交易所的時間表，並降低了其價格波動性。

Bitcoin weekend trading has hit an all-time low in 2024, a shift that’s being attributed to the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded-funds and the collapse of crypto-friendly banks.

比特幣週末交易量在 2024 年創下歷史新低，這一轉變歸因於現貨比特幣交易所交易基金的推出和對加密貨幣友好的銀行的倒閉。

According to data from cryptocurrency research firm Kaiko, just 16% of Bitcoin trades occurred over the weekend in 2024, the lowest level on record. This marks a significant departure from the past, when weekend trading often accounted for a quarter or more of total volume.

根據加密貨幣研究公司 Kaiko 的數據，2024 年只有 16% 的比特幣交易發生在周末，這是有史以​​來的最低水準。這標誌著與過去的顯著不同，過去週末交易量通常佔總交易量的四分之一或更多。

One of crypto’s unique characteristics is that, unlike stocks, it trades around the clock, seven days a week. In the past, Bitcoin trading gained notoriety for its “Wild Weekends,” where the digital currency would experience large price fluctuations.

加密貨幣的獨特特徵之一是，與股票不同，它每週 7 天全天候交易。過去，比特幣交易因其「狂野週末」而臭名昭著，在這種情況下，數位貨幣會經歷巨大的價格波動。

But that phenomenon seems to be cooling, as Bitcoin’s weekend trading volume has declined from a high of 28% in 2019. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs is likely a big reason why.

但這種現像似乎正在降溫，因為比特幣週末交易量已從 2019 年 28% 的高點下降。

“It’s a trend that has been going on for years, but has been exacerbated by ETFs,” Kaiko Senior Analyst Dessislava Aubert told Blockworks in an email.

Kaiko 高級分析師 Dessislava Aubert 在一封電子郵件中告訴 Blockworks：“這種趨勢已經持續多年，但 ETF 加劇了這一趨勢。”

Bitcoin ETFs hit the market with approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission at the beginning of 2024 and have been a hot ticket with investors ever since, leading the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket to a record high in March. While a portion of those gains have been pared, the largest cryptocurrency is still up about 45% in 2024 to around $61,000.

比特幣ETF於2024年初獲得美國證券交易委員會的批准上市，自此一直受到投資者的追捧，導致比特幣價格在3月飆升至歷史新高。儘管部分漲幅已被削減，但這種最大的加密貨幣在 2024 年仍將上漲約 45% 至 61,000 美元左右。

Unlike most crypto tokens that can be traded anytime on exchanges such as Binance, the Bitcoin ETFs follow the schedule of the traditional stock exchange that they are traded on — which means no weekend trading.

與大多數可以在幣安等交易所隨時交易的加密代幣不同，比特幣 ETF 遵循其交易的傳統證券交易所的時間表，這意味著沒有周末交易。

“The Bitcoin ETFs trade during the hours of 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. on weekdays, which is when the authorized participants are able to submit creation or redemption orders,” a recent report from Kaiko noted.

Kaiko 最近的一份報告指出：“比特幣 ETF 在工作日的下午 3 點至 4 點進行交易，此時授權參與者可以提交創建或贖回訂單。”

The proportion of Bitcoin traded on weekdays between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. increased to 6.7% from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023, Kaiko said. That’s the period known as the benchmark fixing window, when the owners of the ETFs determine the price of Bitcoin and then use it to calculate the ETF’s net asset value.

Kaiko 表示，工作日下午 3 點至 4 點之間的比特幣交易比例從 2023 年第四季的 4.5% 增加到 6.7%。這段時間被稱為基準固定窗口，ETF 所有者確定比特幣的價格，然後用它來計算 ETF 的資產淨值。

However, Kaiko’s report also pointed to the collapse of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank in March as another factor contributing to lower trading volume on weekends.

不過，Kaiko 的報告也指出，Signature Bank 和 Silicon Valley Bank 三月的倒閉是導致週末交易量下降的另一個因素。

“Market makers are no longer able to use the banks’ 24/7 payment networks to buy and sell crypto in real time, which may have also impacted weekend trading,” the report said.

報告稱：“做市商不再能夠使用銀行的 24/7 支付網絡實時買賣加密貨幣，這可能也影響了周末交易。”

“The weekend/weekday gap is likely to persist as market makers, who derive their revenues from large amounts of trades earning the bid-ask spread, are less incentivized to provide liquidity in a low volume environment,” the report added.

報告補充說：“週末/工作日的差距可能會持續存在，因為做市商的收入來自於賺取買賣差價的大量交易，他們在低交易量環境下提供流動性的動力較小。”

Another recent report from Kaiko highlighted the institutional adoption of crypto through Bitcoin ETFs, which has led to drastically lower price volatility.

Kaiko 最近的另一份報告強調了機構透過比特幣 ETF 對加密貨幣的採用，這導致價格波動性大幅降低。

When Bitcoin last reached record highs in November 2021, volatility surged to almost 106%. After Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,798 in March amid optimism about the ETFs, volatility was just 40%.

當比特幣上次在 2021 年 11 月創下歷史新高時，波動性飆升至近 106%。由於對 ETF 的樂觀情緒，比特幣在 3 月觸及 73,798 美元的歷史新高後，波動性僅為 40%。

The trend of lower volatility, and the fact that it has remained under 50% since the beginning of 2023, indicates that Bitcoin is becoming a more mature asset, according to Kaiko.

Kaiko 表示，波動性較低的趨勢，以及自 2023 年初以來一直保持在 50% 以下的事實，表明比特幣正在成為一種更成熟的資產。

“While it’s too early to suggest that this is the new normal, changes to Bitcoin’s market structure over the past year may help explain why price action has been relatively ‘boring,'” the report concluded.

報告總結道：“雖然現在說這是新常態還為時過早，但過去一年比特幣市場結構的變化可能有助於解釋為什麼價格走勢相對‘無聊’。”