比特币周末交易量今年跌至历史新低 16%

此次下跌是在现货比特币交易所交易基金推出之后发生的，该基金似乎已经改变了比特币的交易周期，使其更符合传统股票交易所的时间表，并降低了其价格波动性。

Bitcoin weekend trading has hit an all-time low in 2024, a shift that’s being attributed to the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded-funds and the collapse of crypto-friendly banks.

比特币周末交易量在 2024 年创下历史新低，这一转变归因于现货比特币交易所交易基金的推出和对加密货币友好的银行的倒闭。

According to data from cryptocurrency research firm Kaiko, just 16% of Bitcoin trades occurred over the weekend in 2024, the lowest level on record. This marks a significant departure from the past, when weekend trading often accounted for a quarter or more of total volume.

根据加密货币研究公司 Kaiko 的数据，2024 年只有 16% 的比特币交易发生在周末，这是有记录以来的最低水平。这标志着与过去的显着不同，过去周末交易量通常占总交易量的四分之一或更多。

One of crypto’s unique characteristics is that, unlike stocks, it trades around the clock, seven days a week. In the past, Bitcoin trading gained notoriety for its “Wild Weekends,” where the digital currency would experience large price fluctuations.

加密货币的独特特征之一是，与股票不同，它每周 7 天全天候交易。过去，比特币交易因其“狂野周末”而臭名昭著，在这种情况下，数字货币会经历巨大的价格波动。

But that phenomenon seems to be cooling, as Bitcoin’s weekend trading volume has declined from a high of 28% in 2019. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs is likely a big reason why.

但这种现象似乎正在降温，因为比特币周末交易量已从 2019 年 28% 的高位下降。比特币 ETF 的推出可能是一个重要原因。

“It’s a trend that has been going on for years, but has been exacerbated by ETFs,” Kaiko Senior Analyst Dessislava Aubert told Blockworks in an email.

Kaiko 高级分析师 Dessislava Aubert 在一封电子邮件中告诉 Blockworks：“这种趋势已经持续多年，但 ETF 加剧了这一趋势。”

Bitcoin ETFs hit the market with approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission at the beginning of 2024 and have been a hot ticket with investors ever since, leading the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket to a record high in March. While a portion of those gains have been pared, the largest cryptocurrency is still up about 45% in 2024 to around $61,000.

比特币ETF于2024年初获得美国证券交易委员会的批准上市，自此一直受到投资者的追捧，导致比特币价格在3月份飙升至历史新高。尽管部分涨幅已被削减，但这种最大的加密货币在 2024 年仍将上涨约 45% 至 61,000 美元左右。

Unlike most crypto tokens that can be traded anytime on exchanges such as Binance, the Bitcoin ETFs follow the schedule of the traditional stock exchange that they are traded on — which means no weekend trading.

与大多数可以在币安等交易所随时交易的加密代币不同，比特币 ETF 遵循其交易的传统证券交易所的时间表，这意味着没有周末交易。

“The Bitcoin ETFs trade during the hours of 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. on weekdays, which is when the authorized participants are able to submit creation or redemption orders,” a recent report from Kaiko noted.

Kaiko 最近的一份报告指出：“比特币 ETF 在工作日的下午 3 点至 4 点进行交易，此时授权参与者可以提交创建或赎回订单。”

The proportion of Bitcoin traded on weekdays between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. increased to 6.7% from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023, Kaiko said. That’s the period known as the benchmark fixing window, when the owners of the ETFs determine the price of Bitcoin and then use it to calculate the ETF’s net asset value.

Kaiko 表示，工作日下午 3 点至 4 点之间的比特币交易比例从 2023 年第四季度的 4.5% 增加到 6.7%。这段时间被称为基准固定窗口，ETF 所有者确定比特币的价格，然后用它来计算 ETF 的资产净值。

However, Kaiko’s report also pointed to the collapse of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank in March as another factor contributing to lower trading volume on weekends.

不过，Kaiko 的报告还指出，Signature Bank 和 Silicon Valley Bank 三月份的倒闭是导致周末交易量下降的另一个因素。

“Market makers are no longer able to use the banks’ 24/7 payment networks to buy and sell crypto in real time, which may have also impacted weekend trading,” the report said.

报告称：“做市商不再能够使用银行的 24/7 支付网络实时买卖加密货币，这可能也影响了周末交易。”

“The weekend/weekday gap is likely to persist as market makers, who derive their revenues from large amounts of trades earning the bid-ask spread, are less incentivized to provide liquidity in a low volume environment,” the report added.

报告补充说：“周末/工作日的差距可能会持续存在，因为做市商的收入来自于赚取买卖差价的大量交易，他们在低交易量环境下提供流动性的动力较小。”

Another recent report from Kaiko highlighted the institutional adoption of crypto through Bitcoin ETFs, which has led to drastically lower price volatility.

Kaiko 最近的另一份报告强调了机构通过比特币 ETF 对加密货币的采用，这导致价格波动性大幅降低。

When Bitcoin last reached record highs in November 2021, volatility surged to almost 106%. After Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,798 in March amid optimism about the ETFs, volatility was just 40%.

当比特币上次在 2021 年 11 月创下历史新高时，波动性飙升至近 106%。由于对 ETF 的乐观情绪，比特币在 3 月份触及 73,798 美元的历史新高后，波动性仅为 40%。

The trend of lower volatility, and the fact that it has remained under 50% since the beginning of 2023, indicates that Bitcoin is becoming a more mature asset, according to Kaiko.

Kaiko 表示，波动性较低的趋势，以及自 2023 年初以来一直保持在 50% 以下的事实，表明比特币正在成为一种更加成熟的资产。

“While it’s too early to suggest that this is the new normal, changes to Bitcoin’s market structure over the past year may help explain why price action has been relatively ‘boring,'” the report concluded.

报告总结道：“虽然现在说这是新常态还为时过早，但过去一年比特币市场结构的变化可能有助于解释为什么价格走势相对‘无聊’。”