比特幣攤位低於$ 98K，在精益週末的銷量中

比特幣在5月4日（星期日）下跌0.7％，自周中以來首次下跌96,000美元。下降是連續第二天的損失

Bitcoin price briefly crossed $98,000 on Friday before slipping into a two-day pullback, reflecting lower weekend liquidity and growing macro caution.

比特幣的價格在周五短暫地交出了98,000美元，然後滑入為期兩天的回調，反映了周末的流動性下降和宏觀謹慎。

Bitcoin Stalls Below $98K, Amid Lean Weekend Volumes

比特幣攤位低於$ 98K，在精益週末的銷量中

Bitcoin slid 0.7% on Sunday, May 4, falling below the $96,000 level for the first time since midweek. The drop marks a second consecutive day of losses, following a strong institutional-led rally that pushed BTC to a 70-day high of $98,200 on Friday, according to Coingecko.

比特幣在5月4日星期日下跌0.7％，自周中以來首次低於96,000美元的水平。據Coingecko稱，下降是連續第二天的損失，這是在周五舉行的強大機構領導的集會上，將BTC推向了70天的98,200美元。

While Bitcoin briefly reclaimed a $2 trillion market capitalization, its bullish momentum has stalled, coinciding with soft weekend volumes and renewed macro uncertainty.

儘管比特幣短暫地收回了2萬美元的市值，但其看漲的勢頭已經停滯不前，與柔和的周末量相吻合，並更新了宏觀不確定性。

On a weekly basis, Bitcoin is still up 4.5%, while 30-day performance remains at 12.8%, supported by ETF inflows and renewed accumulation from U.S. corporate treasuries.

每週，比特幣仍增長4.5％，而30天的性能仍為12.8％，在美國公司國庫中的ETF流入和新的積累支持。

However, resistance around the $98,000 level has proven tough to break, especially in the absence of clear macro tailwinds.

然而，事實證明，在$ 98,000的水平上的抵抗力很難打破，尤其是在沒有明顯的宏觀逆風的情況下。

At the same time, Ethereum’s inability to hold above $1,900 and declining futures trading volume across top exchanges like Binance and CME further confirm the cautious short-term sentiment over the weekend.

同時，以太坊無法持有超過1,900美元的股份，並在諸如Binance和CME等頂級交易所的期貨交易量下降，進一步證實了周末的謹慎的短期情緒。

DeMark Warns: Bear Market in U.S. Stocks Could Be Imminent

Demark警告：美國股票的熊市可能迫在眉睫

Tom DeMark, the creator of the TD Sequential indicator and a trusted technical advisor to major hedge funds, has issued a fresh warning: a U.S. stock market top is imminent and could give way to a full-blown bear market within months.

TD順序指標的創建者，主要對沖基金的技術顧問的創建者湯姆·德馬克（Tom DeMark）發出了新的警告：美國股票市場的頂級即將到來，並且可以在幾個月內帶入一個成熟的熊市。

DeMark, who accurately predicted the February top and April low in the S&P 500, says the index is showing clear signs of exhaustion.

德馬克（Demark）準確地預測了標準普爾500指數的2月頂級和四月低點，他說該指數顯示出明顯的疲憊跡象。

His analysis highlights that two more closing highs in the S&P 500 would complete a 9-count exhaustion cycle, a historically reliable signal for trend reversals. Once this occurs, DeMark expects a retracement below 4,835—the intraday low from April—representing a 20% plus drop from February’s highs.

他的分析強調，標準普爾500指數中的另外兩個關閉高點將完成9個計數耗盡週期，這是歷史上可靠的趨勢逆轉信號。一旦發生這種情況，德馬克（Demark）預計將撤回4,835以下（從4月起的盤中低點），其代表下降了20％，比2月的高點下降了20％。

“A top is imminent. Too much technical damage has been done,” DeMark said.

Demark說：“頂部即將到來。已經造成了太多的技術損失。”

He also added that the market remains vulnerable to improvement in global trade outlook or liquidity conditions.

他還補充說，市場仍然容易受到全球貿易前景或流動性狀況的改善。

What’s Next: Will DeMark’s Prediction Derail Bitcoin’s $100K Target?

接下來是什麼：DeMark的預測將使比特幣的$ 100K目標？

Bitcoin price correlation to traditional markets, especially the S&P 500, has become increasingly relevant in the current macro environment.

比特幣的價格與傳統市場，尤其是標準普爾500指數的價格相關性在當前的宏觀環境中變得越來越重要。

On February 19, when China imposed retaliatory tariffs and global markets dipped, Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 fell to a yearly low of 0.27%. At the time, BTC acted as a partial hedge, decoupling from equities.

2月19日，當中國征收報復性關稅和全球市場下跌時，比特幣與500指數的相關性下降到每年低於0.27％的低點。當時，BTC充當部分樹籬，與股票脫鉤。

However, President Donald Trump’s softening stance on tariffs and aggressive push for rate cuts have boosted broader market sentiment in recent weeks.

然而，唐納德·特朗普總統對關稅的柔和立場和降級降低的積極推動，在最近幾週內提高了更廣泛的市場情緒。

As a result, the BTC/S&P 500 correlation has surged, reaching 0.82 at press time. This implies that Bitcoin may now respond more directly to U.S. equity moves than earlier this year.

結果，BTC/S＆P 500相關性飆升，發稿時達到0.82。這意味著比特幣現在可能比今年早些時候更直接地對美國股權響應。

If the market correction predicted by DeMark is driven by geopolitical tensions or inflationary trade tariffs, Bitcoin could attract safe-haven flows and maintain upward momentum. Historical data shows BTC often benefits from global instability and monetary easing.

如果德馬克預測的市場糾正是由地緣政治緊張局勢或通貨膨脹貿易關稅驅動的，則比特幣可以吸引避行的流量並保持向上的動力。歷史數據表明，BTC通常受益於全球不穩定和貨幣寬鬆。

On the other hand, if the S&P 500’s decline stems from systemic risk such as a recession, financial contagion, or an energy shock, Bitcoin may not be spared. In such scenarios, investors typically flee risk assets broadly, and BTC could experience significant drawdowns.

另一方面，如果標準普爾500指數的下降源於諸如經濟衰退，金融傳染或能源衝擊等系統性風險，則可能不會倖免。在這種情況下，投資者通常會廣泛地逃離風險資產，而BTC可能會遇到大量的下降。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin’s $100K target and sustained $2 trillion market cap remain within reach, but macro risks are now front and center.

比特幣的目標價為10萬美元，持續2萬億美元的市值仍然可以觸及，但是宏觀風險現在是前面和中心。

Whether Tom DeMark’s bear market call will derail the BTC rally will largely depend on what drives the next wave of equity losses. If it’s policy or trade-related, Bitcoin may rally as a hedge. But if the downturn is triggered by deep economic stress, BTC could fall with the pack, as Demark predicts.

湯姆·德馬克（Tom DeMark）的熊市呼籲是否會使BTC集會的脫軌將在很大程度上取決於驅動下一波股權損失的原因。如果是政策或與貿易有關的，則比特幣可能會作為對沖。但是，如德馬克（Demark）所預測的那樣，如果經濟壓力很大，經濟壓力是由深層的經濟壓力引起的，那麼BTC可能會隨著包裝而陷入困境。