比特币摊位低于$ 98K，在精益周末的销量中

比特币在5月4日（星期日）下跌0.7％，自周中以来首次下跌96,000美元。下降是连续第二天的损失

Bitcoin price briefly crossed $98,000 on Friday before slipping into a two-day pullback, reflecting lower weekend liquidity and growing macro caution.

比特币的价格在周五短暂地交出了98,000美元，然后滑入为期两天的回调，反映了周末的流动性下降和宏观谨慎。

Bitcoin Stalls Below $98K, Amid Lean Weekend Volumes

比特币摊位低于$ 98K，在精益周末的销量中

Bitcoin slid 0.7% on Sunday, May 4, falling below the $96,000 level for the first time since midweek. The drop marks a second consecutive day of losses, following a strong institutional-led rally that pushed BTC to a 70-day high of $98,200 on Friday, according to Coingecko.

比特币在5月4日星期日下跌0.7％，自周中以来首次低于96,000美元的水平。据Coingecko称，下降是连续第二天的损失，这是在周五举行的强大机构领导的集会上，将BTC推向了70天的98,200美元。

While Bitcoin briefly reclaimed a $2 trillion market capitalization, its bullish momentum has stalled, coinciding with soft weekend volumes and renewed macro uncertainty.

尽管比特币短暂地收回了2万美元的市值，但其看涨的势头已经停滞不前，与柔和的周末量相吻合，并更新了宏观不确定性。

On a weekly basis, Bitcoin is still up 4.5%, while 30-day performance remains at 12.8%, supported by ETF inflows and renewed accumulation from U.S. corporate treasuries.

每周，比特币仍增长4.5％，而30天的性能仍为12.8％，在美国公司国库中的ETF流入和新的积累支持。

However, resistance around the $98,000 level has proven tough to break, especially in the absence of clear macro tailwinds.

然而，事实证明，在$ 98,000的水平上的抵抗力很难打破，尤其是在没有明显的宏观逆风的情况下。

At the same time, Ethereum’s inability to hold above $1,900 and declining futures trading volume across top exchanges like Binance and CME further confirm the cautious short-term sentiment over the weekend.

同时，以太坊无法持有超过1,900美元的股份，并在诸如Binance和CME等顶级交易所的期货交易量下降，进一步证实了周末的谨慎的短期情绪。

DeMark Warns: Bear Market in U.S. Stocks Could Be Imminent

Demark警告：美国股票的熊市可能迫在眉睫

Tom DeMark, the creator of the TD Sequential indicator and a trusted technical advisor to major hedge funds, has issued a fresh warning: a U.S. stock market top is imminent and could give way to a full-blown bear market within months.

TD顺序指标的创建者，主要对冲基金的技术顾问的创建者汤姆·德马克（Tom DeMark）发出了新的警告：美国股票市场的顶级即将到来，并且可以在几个月内带入一个成熟的熊市。

DeMark, who accurately predicted the February top and April low in the S&P 500, says the index is showing clear signs of exhaustion.

德马克（Demark）准确地预测了标准普尔500指数的2月顶级和四月低点，他说该指数显示出明显的疲惫迹象。

His analysis highlights that two more closing highs in the S&P 500 would complete a 9-count exhaustion cycle, a historically reliable signal for trend reversals. Once this occurs, DeMark expects a retracement below 4,835—the intraday low from April—representing a 20% plus drop from February’s highs.

他的分析强调，标准普尔500指数中的另外两个关闭高点将完成9个计数耗尽周期，这是历史上可靠的趋势逆转信号。一旦发生这种情况，德马克（Demark）预计将撤回4,835以下（从4月起的盘中低点），其代表下降了20％，比2月的高点下降了20％。

“A top is imminent. Too much technical damage has been done,” DeMark said.

Demark说：“顶部即将到来。已经造成了太多的技术损失。”

He also added that the market remains vulnerable to improvement in global trade outlook or liquidity conditions.

他还补充说，市场仍然容易受到全球贸易前景或流动性状况的改善。

What’s Next: Will DeMark’s Prediction Derail Bitcoin’s $100K Target?

接下来是什么：DeMark的预测将使比特币的$ 100K目标？

Bitcoin price correlation to traditional markets, especially the S&P 500, has become increasingly relevant in the current macro environment.

比特币的价格与传统市场，尤其是标准普尔500指数的价格相关性在当前的宏观环境中变得越来越重要。

On February 19, when China imposed retaliatory tariffs and global markets dipped, Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 fell to a yearly low of 0.27%. At the time, BTC acted as a partial hedge, decoupling from equities.

2月19日，当中国征收报复性关税和全球市场下跌时，比特币与500指数的相关性下降到每年低于0.27％的低点。当时，BTC充当部分树篱，与股票脱钩。

However, President Donald Trump’s softening stance on tariffs and aggressive push for rate cuts have boosted broader market sentiment in recent weeks.

然而，唐纳德·特朗普总统对关税的柔和立场和降级降低的积极推动，在最近几周内提高了更广泛的市场情绪。

As a result, the BTC/S&P 500 correlation has surged, reaching 0.82 at press time. This implies that Bitcoin may now respond more directly to U.S. equity moves than earlier this year.

结果，BTC/S＆P 500相关性飙升，发稿时达到0.82。这意味着比特币现在可能比今年早些时候更直接地对美国股权响应。

If the market correction predicted by DeMark is driven by geopolitical tensions or inflationary trade tariffs, Bitcoin could attract safe-haven flows and maintain upward momentum. Historical data shows BTC often benefits from global instability and monetary easing.

如果德马克预测的市场纠正是由地缘政治紧张局势或通货膨胀贸易关税驱动的，则比特币可以吸引避行的流量并保持向上的动力。历史数据表明，BTC通常受益于全球不稳定和货币宽松。

On the other hand, if the S&P 500’s decline stems from systemic risk such as a recession, financial contagion, or an energy shock, Bitcoin may not be spared. In such scenarios, investors typically flee risk assets broadly, and BTC could experience significant drawdowns.

另一方面，如果标准普尔500指数的下降源于诸如经济衰退，金融传染或能源冲击等系统性风险，则可能不会幸免。在这种情况下，投资者通常会广泛地逃离风险资产，而BTC可能会遇到大量的下降。

Conclusion

结论

Bitcoin’s $100K target and sustained $2 trillion market cap remain within reach, but macro risks are now front and center.

比特币的目标价为10万美元，持续2万亿美元的市值仍然可以触及，但是宏观风险现在是前面和中心。

Whether Tom DeMark’s bear market call will derail the BTC rally will largely depend on what drives the next wave of equity losses. If it’s policy or trade-related, Bitcoin may rally as a hedge. But if the downturn is triggered by deep economic stress, BTC could fall with the pack, as Demark predicts.

汤姆·德马克（Tom DeMark）的熊市呼吁是否会使BTC集会的脱轨将在很大程度上取决于驱动下一波股权损失的原因。如果是政策或与贸易有关的，则比特币可能会作为对冲。但是，如德马克（Demark）所预测的那样，如果经济压力很大，经济压力是由深层的经济压力引起的，那么BTC可能会随着包装而陷入困境。