根據最新分析，比特幣短期持有人不再積累

比特幣最近的價格漲幅達到了關鍵的鏈上閾值：短期持有人（STH）已開始分發硬幣

Short-Term Holders (STH) of Bitcoin (BTC) are no longer accumulating the cryptocurrency, and instead, they are distributing their coins, according to the latest analysis from Alphractal.

根據Alphractal的最新分析，比特幣（BTC）的短期持有人（STH）不再積累加密貨幣，而是他們正在分發硬幣。

This shift marks a potentially pivotal moment in the current cycle, as it indicates a cooling off period for newer market entrants, while seasoned traders, the Long-Term Holders (LTH), are still holding strong.

這種轉變標誌著當前週期中潛在的關鍵時刻，因為這表明新的市場進入者的冷卻期很冷靜，而經驗豐富的長期持有人（LTH）仍然保持強勁。

1. Supply Held by Long and Short-Term Holders

1。長期和短期持有人持有的供應

In the first chart, Alphractal highlights the behavior of LTH and STH relative to BTC's price.

在第一張圖表中，字形強調了LTH和STH相對於BTC的價格的行為。

As seen above:

如上所述：

• STH supply (blue line) typically peaks shortly before cycle tops and then begins to decline, signaling the start of distribution. At present, we're seeing a failure in STH accumulation, even with price increases.

•STH供應（藍線）通常在周期頂部前不久達到峰值，然後開始下降，這標誌著分佈的開始。目前，即使價格上漲，我們也看到STH積累失敗。

• LTH supply (red line) remains at higher levels, which is common in the later stages of a cycle, as seasoned holders are not distributing aggressively yet.

•LTH供應（紅線）保持較高的水平，這在周期的後期很常見，因為經驗豐富的持有人尚未積極分發。

This divergence implies increasing risk of a top.

這種差異意味著增加了頂部的風險。

2. Accumulation vs Distribution of Short-Term Holders

2。積累與短期持有人的分佈

The second chart captures the daily flow of coins between accumulation (green) and distribution (red) among Short-Term Holders.

第二個圖表捕獲了短期持有人之間累積（綠色）和分佈（紅色）之間硬幣的每日流量。

Since early 2025, distribution events have begun to outpace accumulation in the on-chain flow, especially during periods of strong price performance.

自2025年初以來，分銷事件開始超過鏈流量的積累，尤其是在價格強勁的時期。

This dynamic aligns with the observation that many recent buyers are opting to take profits, rather than continue accumulating despite the upward price momentum.

這種動態與觀察到的觀察是，許多最近的買家選擇獲得利潤，而不是儘管價格上漲，而不是繼續積累。

3. Realized Price Comparison: LTH vs STH

3。實現的價格比較：LTH與STH

The third chart is perhaps the most interesting from a macro perspective. It compares the realized price (average cost basis) of LTHs and STHs.

從宏觀角度來看，第三個圖表也許是最有趣的。它比較了LTH和STH的實現價格（平均成本基礎）。

As of now:

截至目前：

• LTH Realized Price is around $42,000.

•LTH意識到價格約為42,000美元。

• STH Realized Price is around $63,000.

•STH實現的價格約為63,000美元。

These levels represent critical psychological and technical boundaries.

這些級別代表著關​​鍵的心理和技術界限。

Onchain Curiosity

好奇心

A recurring pattern highlighted by Alphractal: Every time the STH Realized Price crosses above the LTH Realized Price, a new bull market has followed. This powerful on-chain signal confirms the importance of realized price metrics in identifying macro shifts.

反復出現的模式由字母出現：每當STH實現價格超過第Lth實現的價格時，都會隨之而來的新牛市。這個強大的鍊鍊信號證實了已實現價格指標在識別宏觀變化中的重要性。

What's Next?

接下來是什麼？

While STHs are now distributing and historical signals point to a late-stage bull cycle, it's crucial to remember that Bitcoin reached new all-time highs in 2021 even amid similar distribution behavior.

儘管STH現在正在分發，並且歷史信號指向後期的公牛週期，但要記住，比特幣在2021年甚至在相似的分佈行為中達到了新的歷史高點。

However, current signals suggest a potential significant correction could begin after October 2025, aligning with halving symmetry and macro on-chain patterns.

但是，當前的信號表明可能在2025年10月之後開始潛在的顯著校正，與對稱和宏觀上的鍊鍊模式保持一致。

In such a dynamic, investors should remain attentive to supply dynamics and potential reversals in price trends.

在這樣的動態中，投資者應保持專注，以提供價格趨勢的動態和潛在的逆轉。

The charts from Alphractal provide a unique perspective on the changing hands of Bitcoin and the potential implications for the cryptocurrency's price movements.

來自Alphractal的圖表為比特幣的換手提供了獨特的觀點，以及對加密貨幣價格變動的潛在影響。

As the market continues to evolve, understanding these on-chain metrics can be crucial for navigating the crypto domain.

隨著市場的不斷發展，了解這些鏈上指標對於導航加密型域可能至關重要。