根据最新分析，比特币短期持有人不再积累

比特币最近的价格涨幅达到了关键的链上阈值：短期持有人（STH）已开始分发硬币

Short-Term Holders (STH) of Bitcoin (BTC) are no longer accumulating the cryptocurrency, and instead, they are distributing their coins, according to the latest analysis from Alphractal.

根据Alphractal的最新分析，比特币（BTC）的短期持有人（STH）不再积累加密货币，而是他们正在分发硬币。

This shift marks a potentially pivotal moment in the current cycle, as it indicates a cooling off period for newer market entrants, while seasoned traders, the Long-Term Holders (LTH), are still holding strong.

这种转变标志着当前周期中潜在的关键时刻，因为这表明新的市场进入者的冷却期很冷静，而经验丰富的长期持有人（LTH）仍然保持强劲。

1. Supply Held by Long and Short-Term Holders

1。长期和短期持有人持有的供应

In the first chart, Alphractal highlights the behavior of LTH and STH relative to BTC's price.

在第一张图表中，字形强调了LTH和STH相对于BTC的价格的行为。

As seen above:

如上所述：

• STH supply (blue line) typically peaks shortly before cycle tops and then begins to decline, signaling the start of distribution. At present, we're seeing a failure in STH accumulation, even with price increases.

•STH供应（蓝线）通常在周期顶部前不久达到峰值，然后开始下降，这标志着分布的开始。目前，即使价格上涨，我们也看到STH积累失败。

• LTH supply (red line) remains at higher levels, which is common in the later stages of a cycle, as seasoned holders are not distributing aggressively yet.

•LTH供应（红线）保持较高的水平，这在周期的后期很常见，因为经验丰富的持有人尚未积极分发。

This divergence implies increasing risk of a top.

这种差异意味着增加了顶部的风险。

2. Accumulation vs Distribution of Short-Term Holders

2。积累与短期持有人的分布

The second chart captures the daily flow of coins between accumulation (green) and distribution (red) among Short-Term Holders.

第二个图表捕获了短期持有人之间累积（绿色）和分布（红色）之间硬币的每日流量。

Since early 2025, distribution events have begun to outpace accumulation in the on-chain flow, especially during periods of strong price performance.

自2025年初以来，分销事件开始超过链流量的积累，尤其是在价格强劲的时期。

This dynamic aligns with the observation that many recent buyers are opting to take profits, rather than continue accumulating despite the upward price momentum.

这种动态与观察到的观察是，许多最近的买家选择获得利润，而不是尽管价格上涨，而不是继续积累。

3. Realized Price Comparison: LTH vs STH

3。实现的价格比较：LTH与STH

The third chart is perhaps the most interesting from a macro perspective. It compares the realized price (average cost basis) of LTHs and STHs.

从宏观角度来看，第三个图表也许是最有趣的。它比较了LTH和STH的实现价格（平均成本基础）。

As of now:

截至目前：

• LTH Realized Price is around $42,000.

•LTH意识到价格约为42,000美元。

• STH Realized Price is around $63,000.

•STH实现的价格约为63,000美元。

These levels represent critical psychological and technical boundaries.

这些级别代表着关​​键的心理和技术界限。

Onchain Curiosity

好奇心

A recurring pattern highlighted by Alphractal: Every time the STH Realized Price crosses above the LTH Realized Price, a new bull market has followed. This powerful on-chain signal confirms the importance of realized price metrics in identifying macro shifts.

反复出现的模式由字母出现：每当STH实现价格超过第Lth实现的价格时，都会随之而来的新牛市。这个强大的链链信号证实了已实现价格指标在识别宏观变化中的重要性。

What's Next?

接下来是什么？

While STHs are now distributing and historical signals point to a late-stage bull cycle, it's crucial to remember that Bitcoin reached new all-time highs in 2021 even amid similar distribution behavior.

尽管STH现在正在分发，并且历史信号指向后期的公牛周期，但要记住，比特币在2021年甚至在相似的分布行为中达到了新的历史高点。

However, current signals suggest a potential significant correction could begin after October 2025, aligning with halving symmetry and macro on-chain patterns.

但是，当前的信号表明可能在2025年10月之后开始潜在的显着校正，与对称和宏观上的链链模式保持一致。

In such a dynamic, investors should remain attentive to supply dynamics and potential reversals in price trends.

在这样的动态中，投资者应保持专注，以提供价格趋势的动态和潜在的逆转。

The charts from Alphractal provide a unique perspective on the changing hands of Bitcoin and the potential implications for the cryptocurrency's price movements.

来自Alphractal的图表为比特币的换手提供了独特的观点，以及对加密货币价格变动的潜在影响。

As the market continues to evolve, understanding these on-chain metrics can be crucial for navigating the crypto domain.

随着市场的不断发展，了解这些链上指标对于导航加密型域可能至关重要。