比特幣通往 10 萬美元之路——推倒這堵牆

Galaxy Digital 全公司研究主管 Alex Thorn 分析了比特幣的近期表現以及影響其軌蹟的因素

Bitcoin (BTC) price has not traded below $90,000 over the past week, building anticipation that the flagship digital asset will soon cross the $100,000 milestone. BTC price has rallied by as much as 50% since Nov. 4, the day before the United States election. After reaching new all-time highs of $99,860 on Friday, Nov. 24, BTCUSD retraced by as much as 8% to $91,420.

過去一周，比特幣 (BTC) 的價格從未低於 9 萬美元，人們預計這一旗艦數位資產將很快突破 10 萬美元的里程碑。自 11 月 4 日（即美國大選前一天）以來，BTC 價格已上漲了 50%。在 11 月 24 日星期五觸及歷史新高 99,860 美元後，BTCUSD 回撤多達 8% 至 91,420 美元。

“In earlier Bitcoin times, this drawdown wouldn't have raised eyebrows, as sharp corrections were extremely common,” Thorn noted. “These days, however, all eyes are on Bitcoin, including many that have not been in the trenches of Bitcoin volatility for years.”

索恩指出：“在早期的比特幣時代，這種回撤不會引起人們的注意，因為大幅調整是極其常見的。” “然而，如今，所有人的目光都集中在比特幣上，包括許多多年來沒有經歷過比特幣波動的人。”

The sell pressure and supply distribution can be further analyzed by examining the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric. This metric shows the last time each coin in the circulating supply moved on a logarithmic scale. The metric is adjusted by realized price, which is the price of Bitcoin at the time each coin last moved.

可以透過檢查 UTXO 實現價格分佈 (URPD) 指標來進一步分析賣出壓力和供應分佈。此指標顯示了流通供應中的每枚代幣最後一次以對數刻度移動的時間。此指標根據已實現價格進行調整，即每種代幣最後一次移動時的比特幣價格。

The metric shows that a significant portion of the coins in the circulating supply were last moved at prices between $52,000 and $72,000. This suggests that many holders who acquired Bitcoin during the 237 days of sideways price action are now taking profits as BTC approaches $100,000.

該指標顯示，流通供應中很大一部分代幣的最後移動價格在 52,000 美元至 72,000 美元之間。這表明，許多在 237 天的橫向價格走勢中購買比特幣的持有者現在正在隨著 BTC 接近 10 萬美元而獲利了結。

In the options market, the opening options interest for the new spot-based Bitcoin ETFs totals more than $4.1 billion in notional value, with the majority ($3.1 billion) on call buying. Most call exposure is at strikes of $93,000 or higher, which Thorn interprets as a bullish signal.

在選擇權市場，新的基於現貨的比特幣 ETF 的未平倉選擇權利息總額名義價值超過 41 億美元，其中大部分（31 億美元）為買權。大多數看漲期權的執行價為 93,000 美元或更高，索恩將其解釋為看漲信號。

“Market participants are bullish and positioning for further upside,” he stated. Crypto-native dealers are net short gamma at $93,000, meaning they need to hedge by buying as prices rise and selling as prices decline, potentially amplifying market volatility until BTCUSD reaches $106,000.

「市場參與者看漲並準備進一步上漲，」他表示。加密貨幣本土交易商的淨空頭伽瑪值為 93,000 美元，這意味著他們需要透過在價格上漲時買入、在價格下跌時賣出來對沖，這可能會放大市場波動，直到 BTCUSD 達到 106,000 美元。

Regarding leverage in the system, Thorn observed that while leverage exists, it appears mostly healthy rather than excessive. Perpetual swap funding rates are not near the elevated levels seen in March 2024 or during previous market peaks. The three-month annualized basis is increasing following the post-election price movement but remains well below levels associated with market tops. Open interest is at all-time highs, but a significant portion is attributed to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), likely related to ETF owners engaging in basis trades or hedging by ETF authorized participants.

關於系統中的槓桿，索恩觀察到，雖然槓桿存在，但它看起來大多是健康的，而不是過度的。永續掉期融資利率並未接近 2024 年 3 月或之前市場高峰期間的高水準。隨著選舉後的價格變動，三個月年化基數正在增加，但仍遠低於與市場頂部相關的水平。未平倉合約處於歷史最高水平，但很大一部分歸因於芝加哥商品交易所（CME），這可能與 ETF 所有者參與基差交易或 ETF 授權參與者進行對沖有關。

Together, these observations suggest that the Bitcoin bull market has “legs,” driven by increasing institutional, corporate, and potentially nation-state adoption, as well as favorable regulatory and policy developments. Several catalysts could propel Bitcoin higher in the near and medium term.

總之，這些觀察結果表明，比特幣牛市有“支撐”，這是由機構、企業和潛在的民族國家採用的增加以及有利的監管和政策發展所推動的。多種催化劑可能會在中短期內推動比特幣走高。

First, the easing of regulatory headwinds, including potential changes to the SEC's Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121), could pave the way for major custody banks to enter the crypto space. “Given we are very likely to see a material shift in the OCC's posture to banks interacting directly with cryptos, these big banks will eventually have their opportunity to get more involved,” Thorn predicted.

首先，監管阻力的緩解，包括 SEC 員工會計公告 121 (SAB 121) 的潛在變化，可能為主要託管銀行進入加密貨幣領域鋪平道路。索恩預測：“鑑於我們很可能會看到 OCC 對銀行直接與加密貨幣互動的態度發生重大轉變，這些大銀行最終將有機會更多地參與其中。”

Second, a relaxation of the SEC's application of the Howey Test to digital assets, or the expansion of “crypto asset securities” tradable within broker-dealers, could allow more entrants into the exchange space, including traditional financial institutions. This could also lead to the approval of more spot-based crypto ETFs in the United States.

其次，美國證券交易委員會放寬對數位資產的豪伊測試的應用，或擴大經紀自營商內可交易的“加密資產證券”，可能會允許更多的進入者進入交易領域，包括傳統金融機構。這也可能導致更多基於現貨的加密 ETF 在美國獲得批准。

Further institutionalization of the Bitcoin and crypto market could increase financing options, enhance liquidity, and make spot crypto more accessible through existing institutional trading platforms. This would raise the maturity level of the institutional crypto market and potentially merge aspects of traditional finance and decentralized finance. “Depending on regulatory posture and any legislation that is enacted, the merger of TradFi and DeFi may finally be upon us,” Thorn suggested.

比特幣和加密貨幣市場的進一步製度化可以增加融資選擇，增強流動性，並使現貨加密貨幣更容易透過現有的機構交易平台獲得。這將提高機構加密貨幣市場的成熟度，並有可能融合傳統金融和去中心化金融的各個方面。 Thorn 表示：“根據監管態勢和已頒布的任何立法，TradFi 和 DeFi 的合併可能最終會到來。”

On the political front, Thorn highlighted the pro-Bitcoin stance of the incoming US administration. Scott Bessent, a known advocate for Bitcoin and crypto, has been chosen as the 79th Treasury Secretary. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance owns Bitcoin, as do Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who will lead the new Department of Government Efficiency. Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick owns significant amounts of Bitcoin, and his company, Cantor Fitzgerald, is deeply involved in BTC and stablecoin markets.

在政治方面，索恩強調了即將上任的美國政府支持比特幣的立場。比特幣和加密貨幣的著名倡導者 Scott Bessent 被選為第 79 任財政部長。當選副總統 JD Vance 擁有比特幣，馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 和將領導新政府效率部的 Vivek Ramaswamy 也擁有比特幣。商務部長提名人 Howard Lutnick 擁有大量比特幣，他的公司 Cantor Fitzgerald 深入參與了 BTC 和穩定幣市場。

Fox Business reported that the Trump transition team is planning for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to take the leading role in digital assets regulation, rather than the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This move is seen by industry observers as favorable. “This marks the latest in a swath of pro-Bitcoin cabinet officials,” Thorn observed.

福克斯商業報道稱，川普過渡團隊正計劃讓商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）在數位資產監管方面發揮主導作用，而不是證券交易委員會（SEC）。產業觀察家認為此舉是有利的。 「這標誌著一群支持比特幣的內閣官員中的最新成員，」索恩評論道。

Thorn mentioned the intensifying discussion around a potential

索恩提到了圍繞潛在可能性的激烈討論