比特币通向 10 万美元之路——推倒这堵墙

Galaxy Digital 全公司研究主管 Alex Thorn 分析了比特币的近期表现以及影响其轨迹的因素

Bitcoin (BTC) price has not traded below $90,000 over the past week, building anticipation that the flagship digital asset will soon cross the $100,000 milestone. BTC price has rallied by as much as 50% since Nov. 4, the day before the United States election. After reaching new all-time highs of $99,860 on Friday, Nov. 24, BTCUSD retraced by as much as 8% to $91,420.

过去一周，比特币 (BTC) 的价格从未低于 90,000 美元，人们预计这一旗舰数字资产将很快突破 100,000 美元的里程碑。自 11 月 4 日（即美国大选前一天）以来，BTC 价格已上涨了 50%。在 11 月 24 日星期五触及历史新高 99,860 美元后，BTCUSD 回撤多达 8% 至 91,420 美元。

“In earlier Bitcoin times, this drawdown wouldn't have raised eyebrows, as sharp corrections were extremely common,” Thorn noted. “These days, however, all eyes are on Bitcoin, including many that have not been in the trenches of Bitcoin volatility for years.”

索恩指出：“在早期的比特币时代，这种回撤不会引起人们的注意，因为大幅调整是极其常见的。” “然而，如今，所有人的目光都集中在比特币上，包括许多多年来没有经历过比特币波动的人。”

The sell pressure and supply distribution can be further analyzed by examining the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric. This metric shows the last time each coin in the circulating supply moved on a logarithmic scale. The metric is adjusted by realized price, which is the price of Bitcoin at the time each coin last moved.

可以通过检查 UTXO 实现价格分布 (URPD) 指标来进一步分析卖出压力和供应分布。该指标显示了流通供应中的每枚代币最后一次以对数刻度移动的时间。该指标根据已实现价格进行调整，即每个代币最后一次移动时的比特币价格。

The metric shows that a significant portion of the coins in the circulating supply were last moved at prices between $52,000 and $72,000. This suggests that many holders who acquired Bitcoin during the 237 days of sideways price action are now taking profits as BTC approaches $100,000.

该指标显示，流通供应中很大一部分代币的最后移动价格在 52,000 美元至 72,000 美元之间。这表明，许多在 237 天的横向价格走势中购买比特币的持有者现在正在随着 BTC 接近 10 万美元而获利了结。

In the options market, the opening options interest for the new spot-based Bitcoin ETFs totals more than $4.1 billion in notional value, with the majority ($3.1 billion) on call buying. Most call exposure is at strikes of $93,000 or higher, which Thorn interprets as a bullish signal.

在期权市场，新的基于现货的比特币 ETF 的未平仓期权利息总额名义价值超过 41 亿美元，其中大部分（31 亿美元）为看涨期权。大多数看涨期权的执行价为 93,000 美元或更高，索恩将其解释为看涨信号。

“Market participants are bullish and positioning for further upside,” he stated. Crypto-native dealers are net short gamma at $93,000, meaning they need to hedge by buying as prices rise and selling as prices decline, potentially amplifying market volatility until BTCUSD reaches $106,000.

“市场参与者看涨并准备进一步上涨，”他表示。加密货币本土交易商的净空头伽玛值为 93,000 美元，这意味着他们需要通过在价格上涨时买入、在价格下跌时卖出来进行对冲，这可能会放大市场波动，直到 BTCUSD 达到 106,000 美元。

Regarding leverage in the system, Thorn observed that while leverage exists, it appears mostly healthy rather than excessive. Perpetual swap funding rates are not near the elevated levels seen in March 2024 or during previous market peaks. The three-month annualized basis is increasing following the post-election price movement but remains well below levels associated with market tops. Open interest is at all-time highs, but a significant portion is attributed to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), likely related to ETF owners engaging in basis trades or hedging by ETF authorized participants.

关于系统中的杠杆，索恩观察到，虽然杠杆存在，但它看起来大多是健康的，而不是过度的。永续掉期融资利率并未接近 2024 年 3 月或之前市场高峰期间的高水平。随着选举后的价格变动，三个月年化基数正在增加，但仍远低于与市场顶部相关的水平。未平仓合约处于历史最高水平，但很大一部分归因于芝加哥商品交易所（CME），这可能与 ETF 所有者参与基差交易或 ETF 授权参与者进行对冲有关。

Together, these observations suggest that the Bitcoin bull market has “legs,” driven by increasing institutional, corporate, and potentially nation-state adoption, as well as favorable regulatory and policy developments. Several catalysts could propel Bitcoin higher in the near and medium term.

总之，这些观察结果表明，比特币牛市有“支撑”，这是由机构、企业和潜在的民族国家采用的增加以及有利的监管和政策发展推动的。多种催化剂可能会在中短期内推动比特币走高。

First, the easing of regulatory headwinds, including potential changes to the SEC's Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121), could pave the way for major custody banks to enter the crypto space. “Given we are very likely to see a material shift in the OCC's posture to banks interacting directly with cryptos, these big banks will eventually have their opportunity to get more involved,” Thorn predicted.

首先，监管阻力的缓解，包括 SEC 员工会计公告 121 (SAB 121) 的潜在变化，可能为主要托管银行进入加密货币领域铺平道路。索恩预测：“鉴于我们很可能会看到 OCC 对银行直接与加密货币互动的态度发生重大转变，这些大银行最终将有机会更多地参与其中。”

Second, a relaxation of the SEC's application of the Howey Test to digital assets, or the expansion of “crypto asset securities” tradable within broker-dealers, could allow more entrants into the exchange space, including traditional financial institutions. This could also lead to the approval of more spot-based crypto ETFs in the United States.

其次，美国证券交易委员会放宽对数字资产的豪伊测试的应用，或扩大经纪自营商内可交易的“加密资产证券”，可能会允许更多的进入者进入交易领域，包括传统金融机构。这也可能导致更多基于现货的加密 ETF 在美国获得批准。

Further institutionalization of the Bitcoin and crypto market could increase financing options, enhance liquidity, and make spot crypto more accessible through existing institutional trading platforms. This would raise the maturity level of the institutional crypto market and potentially merge aspects of traditional finance and decentralized finance. “Depending on regulatory posture and any legislation that is enacted, the merger of TradFi and DeFi may finally be upon us,” Thorn suggested.

比特币和加密货币市场的进一步制度化可以增加融资选择，增强流动性，并使现货加密货币更容易通过现有的机构交易平台获得。这将提高机构加密货币市场的成熟度，并有可能融合传统金融和去中心化金融的各个方面。 Thorn 表示：“根据监管态势和已颁布的任何立法，TradFi 和 DeFi 的合并可能最终会到来。”

On the political front, Thorn highlighted the pro-Bitcoin stance of the incoming US administration. Scott Bessent, a known advocate for Bitcoin and crypto, has been chosen as the 79th Treasury Secretary. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance owns Bitcoin, as do Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who will lead the new Department of Government Efficiency. Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick owns significant amounts of Bitcoin, and his company, Cantor Fitzgerald, is deeply involved in BTC and stablecoin markets.

在政治方面，索恩强调了即将上任的美国政府支持比特币的立场。比特币和加密货币的著名倡导者斯科特·贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 被选为第 79 任财政部长。当选副总统 JD Vance 拥有比特币，埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 和将领导新政府效率部的维韦克·拉马斯瓦米 (Vivek Ramaswamy) 也拥有比特币。商务部长提名人 Howard Lutnick 拥有大量比特币，他的公司 Cantor Fitzgerald 深入参与了 BTC 和稳定币市场。

Fox Business reported that the Trump transition team is planning for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to take the leading role in digital assets regulation, rather than the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This move is seen by industry observers as favorable. “This marks the latest in a swath of pro-Bitcoin cabinet officials,” Thorn observed.

福克斯商业报道称，特朗普过渡团队正计划让商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）在数字资产监管方面发挥主导作用，而不是证券交易委员会（SEC）。行业观察家认为此举是有利的。 “这标志着一批支持比特币的内阁官员中的最新成员，”索恩评论道。

Thorn mentioned the intensifying discussion around a potential

索恩提到了围绕潜在可能性的激烈讨论