比特幣：「風險偏好」還是「風險規避」資產？

據報道，比特幣對全球流動性狀況比黃金和其他資產類別更敏感。著名宏觀分析師 Lynn Alden 表示，與任何其他資產相比，比特幣在 83% 的時間內對全球流動性狀況做出反應。

Bitcoin (BTC) is reportedly more sensitive to global liquidity conditions than other asset classes, including gold. According to Lyn Alden, a macro analyst, BTC reacts 83% of the time to global liquidity conditions, which is more than any other asset.

據報道，比特幣（BTC）比包括黃金在內的其他資產類別對全球流動性狀況更為敏感。宏觀分析師 Lyn Alden 表示，BTC 在 83% 的時間內對全球流動性狀況做出反應，這比其他資產都要多。

“Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 83% of the time; more than other assets.”

「83% 的時間裡，比特幣朝著全球 M2 的方向移動；超過其他資產。

Source: Lyn Alden

資料來源：林恩·奧爾登

Is BTC a ‘risk on’ or ‘risk-off’ asset?

比特幣是「風險偏好」資產還是「風險規避」資產？

U.S. equities, denoted by SPX, are the second most reactive asset to global liquidity conditions, while gold is fourth. This suggests that BTC is more of a ‘risk-on’ asset that performs better when interest rates are low or during quantitative easing cycles.

以 SPX 表示的美國股票是對全球流動性狀況反應第二大的資產，而黃金則排名第四。這表明比特幣更像是一種「冒險」資產，在利率較低或量化寬鬆週期期間表現更好。

It also suggests that BTC is less of a relative hedging asset than gold. According to Alden, BTC is ‘risk-on gold’ because it’s new sound money, but some capital allocators have a limited understanding of it and treat it as a ‘risk-on’ asset.

它還表明，與黃金相比，比特幣的相對對沖資產較少。奧爾登認為，比特幣是“風險黃金”，因為它是新的穩健貨幣，但一些資本配置者對其了解有限，並將其視為“風險資產”。

She added that the correlation could continue for another 5–10 years before BTC begins acting like gold.

她補充說，在 BTC 開始像黃金一樣運作之前，這種相關性可能還會持續 5 到 10 年。

“If it gets really big, then it could switch more to gold-like correlation, which is not that far off.”

“如果它變得非常大，那麼它可能會更多地轉向類似黃金的相關性，這並不遙遠。”

However, Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, views BTC as a ‘risk-off’ and hedging asset. For context, ‘risk-off’ assets tend to perform well during periods of uncertainty and turmoil.

然而，貝萊德數位資產主管 Robbie Mitchnick 將 BTC 視為一種「避險」和對沖資產。就背景而言，「避險」資產往往在不確定和動盪時期表現良好。

Mitchnick noted that BTC and gold have almost zero long-term correlations to U.S. stocks, with occasional and temporary positive valuations. He added,

米奇尼克指出，比特幣和黃金與美國股票的長期相關性幾乎為零，偶爾和暫時的正估值。他補充說，

“When we think about Bitcoin, we think about it primarily as an emerging global monetary alternative…Scarce, global, decentralized, non-sovereign asset. And it’s an asset that has no country-specific risk, that has no counterparty risk.”

「當我們想到比特幣時，我們主要將其視為一種新興的全球貨幣替代品……稀缺的、全球性的、去中心化的、非主權資產。而且它是一種不存在特定國家風險、不存在交易對手風險的資產。

According to Mitchnick, rising inflation and investors’ concerns about U.S. political/fiscal sustainability will be key growth drivers for BTC, making it a ‘risk-off’ asset.

米奇尼克表示，通膨上升和投資者對美國政治/財政可持續性的擔憂將成為比特幣的主要成長動力，使其成為「避險」資產。

That said, there have been ongoing debates about whether BTC is more sound money with extra upside potential compared to gold.

也就是說，與黃金相比，比特幣是否是更穩健的貨幣，具有額外的上漲潛力，這個問題一直存在爭議。

However, in the short term, Alden’s projections seem more likely. BTC behaves like a ‘risk-on’ asset. In fact, according to the BTC Pearson Correlation, the cryptocurrency has increasingly become positively correlated with U.S. stocks in Q3.

然而，從短期來看，奧爾登的預測似乎更有可能。比特幣的行為就像是一種「風險偏好」資產。事實上，根據比特幣皮爾森相關係數，加密貨幣在第三季與美股的正相關性日益增強。

Source: The Block

來源：The Block

Put differently, BTC’s price action could be forward-looking to U.S. Fed monetary policy updates rather than crypto-specific events in the near term.

換句話說，比特幣的價格走勢可能是對聯準會貨幣政策更新的前瞻性，而不是短期內特定於加密貨幣的事件。

In short, the U.S. PCE (personal consumption expenditure) data, which will be released on the 27th of September, will drive BTC volatility.

簡而言之，即將於9月27日發布的美國PCE（個人消費支出）數據將推動BTC波動。

Moreover, the recent Chinese economic stimulus and expected easing cycle will also boost BTC in the medium run.

此外，近期中國的經濟刺激和預期的寬鬆週期也將在中期內提振比特幣。

Ergo, tracking this front can be helpful as part of a macro-approach to risk management strategy for BTC investors and traders.

因此，追蹤這一前沿可能有助於作為 BTC 投資者和交易者風險管理策略宏觀方法的一部分。