比特币：“风险偏好”还是“风险规避”资产？

据报道，比特币对全球流动性状况比黄金和其他资产类别更敏感。著名宏观分析师林恩·奥尔登 (Lyn Alden) 表示，与任何其他资产相比，比特币在 83% 的时间内对全球流动性状况做出反应。

Bitcoin (BTC) is reportedly more sensitive to global liquidity conditions than other asset classes, including gold. According to Lyn Alden, a macro analyst, BTC reacts 83% of the time to global liquidity conditions, which is more than any other asset.

据报道，比特币（BTC）比包括黄金在内的其他资产类别对全球流动性状况更为敏感。宏观分析师 Lyn Alden 表示，BTC 在 83% 的时间里对全球流动性状况做出反应，这比任何其他资产都要多。

“Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 83% of the time; more than other assets.”

“83% 的时间里，比特币朝着全球 M2 的方向移动；超过其他资产。”

Source: Lyn Alden

资料来源：林恩·奥尔登

Is BTC a ‘risk on’ or ‘risk-off’ asset?

比特币是“风险偏好”资产还是“风险规避”资产？

U.S. equities, denoted by SPX, are the second most reactive asset to global liquidity conditions, while gold is fourth. This suggests that BTC is more of a ‘risk-on’ asset that performs better when interest rates are low or during quantitative easing cycles.

以 SPX 表示的美国股票是对全球流动性状况反应第二大的资产，而黄金则排名第四。这表明比特币更像是一种“冒险”资产，在利率较低或量化宽松周期期间表现更好。

It also suggests that BTC is less of a relative hedging asset than gold. According to Alden, BTC is ‘risk-on gold’ because it’s new sound money, but some capital allocators have a limited understanding of it and treat it as a ‘risk-on’ asset.

它还表明，与黄金相比，比特币的相对对冲资产较少。奥尔登认为，比特币是“风险黄金”，因为它是新的稳健货币，但一些资本配置者对其了解有限，并将其视为“风险资产”。

She added that the correlation could continue for another 5–10 years before BTC begins acting like gold.

她补充说，在 BTC 开始像黄金一样运作之前，这种相关性可能还会持续 5 到 10 年。

“If it gets really big, then it could switch more to gold-like correlation, which is not that far off.”

“如果它变得非常大，那么它可能会更多地转向类似黄金的相关性，这并不遥远。”

However, Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, views BTC as a ‘risk-off’ and hedging asset. For context, ‘risk-off’ assets tend to perform well during periods of uncertainty and turmoil.

然而，贝莱德数字资产主管 Robbie Mitchnick 将 BTC 视为一种“避险”和对冲资产。就背景而言，“避险”资产往往在不确定和动荡时期表现良好。

Mitchnick noted that BTC and gold have almost zero long-term correlations to U.S. stocks, with occasional and temporary positive valuations. He added,

米奇尼克指出，比特币和黄金与美国股票的长期相关性几乎为零，偶尔和暂时的正估值。他补充说，

“When we think about Bitcoin, we think about it primarily as an emerging global monetary alternative…Scarce, global, decentralized, non-sovereign asset. And it’s an asset that has no country-specific risk, that has no counterparty risk.”

“当我们想到比特币时，我们主要将其视为一种新兴的全球货币替代品……稀缺的、全球性的、去中心化的、非主权资产。而且它是一种不存在特定国家风险、不存在交易对手风险的资产。”

According to Mitchnick, rising inflation and investors’ concerns about U.S. political/fiscal sustainability will be key growth drivers for BTC, making it a ‘risk-off’ asset.

米奇尼克表示，通胀上升和投资者对美国政治/财政可持续性的担忧将成为比特币的主要增长动力，使其成为一种“避险”资产。

That said, there have been ongoing debates about whether BTC is more sound money with extra upside potential compared to gold.

也就是说，与黄金相比，比特币是否是更稳健的货币，具有额外的上涨潜力，这一问题一直存在争论。

However, in the short term, Alden’s projections seem more likely. BTC behaves like a ‘risk-on’ asset. In fact, according to the BTC Pearson Correlation, the cryptocurrency has increasingly become positively correlated with U.S. stocks in Q3.

然而，从短期来看，奥尔登的预测似乎更有可能。比特币的行为就像一种“风险偏好”资产。事实上，根据比特币皮尔逊相关系数，加密货币在第三季度与美股的正相关性日益增强。

Source: The Block

来源：The Block

Put differently, BTC’s price action could be forward-looking to U.S. Fed monetary policy updates rather than crypto-specific events in the near term.

换句话说，比特币的价格走势可能是对美联储货币政策更新的前瞻性，而不是短期内特定于加密货币的事件。

In short, the U.S. PCE (personal consumption expenditure) data, which will be released on the 27th of September, will drive BTC volatility.

简而言之，即将于9月27日发布的美国PCE（个人消费支出）数据将推动BTC波动。

Moreover, the recent Chinese economic stimulus and expected easing cycle will also boost BTC in the medium run.

此外，近期中国的经济刺激和预期的宽松周期也将在中期内提振比特币。

Ergo, tracking this front can be helpful as part of a macro-approach to risk management strategy for BTC investors and traders.

因此，跟踪这一前沿可能有助于作为 BTC 投资者和交易者风险管理策略宏观方法的一部分。