新的比特幣風險模型旨在通過流動性和行為來解碼市場週期

CMT Jamie Coutts剛剛發布了一個新的比特幣市場框架，這標誌著了解加密貨幣市場的周期性性質邁出了重要一步。

A new Bitcoin market framework has been completed by Jamie Coutts, CMT, after years of conceptual development and recent weeks of technical challenges, including LLM crashes and token constraints.

經過多年的概念開發和最近幾週的技術挑戰（包括LLM Crashes和令牌約束），CMT的Jamie Coutts（CMT）已完成了一個新的比特幣市場框架。

The first version of Coutts’ “Bitcoin Cycle Risk Framework” has now been finalized.

Coutts的“比特幣週期風險框架”的第一個版本現已最終確定。

As Coutts explains, the framework does not attempt to predict tops or bottoms in Bitcoin’s price, but rather to identify critical phases of risk across the cycle—whether risk is rising, receding, or reaching extremes.

正如Coutts所解釋的那樣，該框架不是試圖以比特幣價格預測頂部或底部，而是要在整個週期內確定風險的關鍵階段 - 無論風險正在上升，退縮或達到極端。

The model is designed to highlight key market variables such as liquidity, leverage, and behavioral patterns to offer a clearer picture of where BTC stands in its macro cycle.

該模型旨在突出關鍵市場變量，例如流動性，槓桿和行為模式，以更清晰地了解BTC在其宏觀週期中的位置。

“Bitcoin is cyclical, and this model tracks why it moves,” Coutts stated.

Coutts說：“比特幣是周期性的，該模型跟踪了它的移動原因。”

The chart he shared combines three core indicators—GRS (Growth Risk Score), DRS (Drawdown Risk Score), and NPRS (Net Position Risk Score)—to provide a visual overview of market conditions over time. The historical overlay of Bitcoin’s price next to these risk indicators offers powerful context for interpreting potential shifts in sentiment and risk appetite.

他共享的圖表結合了三個核心指標：GRS（增長風險評分），DRS（下降風險評分）和NPRS（淨位置風險評分），以視覺上概述了隨著時間的推移市場條件。這些風險指標旁邊的比特幣價格的歷史疊加為解釋情感和風險食慾的潛在轉變提供了有力的背景。

The strength of the framework lies in observing how these risk indicators interrelate and diverge at pivotal moments.

框架的強度在於觀察這些風險指標在關鍵時刻如何相互關聯和分歧。

For instance, a divergence in the GRS and DRS around mid-2023 suggests a shift in market dynamics. After a period of rapid price growth and decreasing risk with rising GRS and low DRS, the market transitioned into a phase of slower growth but increasing risk, indicated by declining GRS and rising DRS. This shift may have implications for traders adapting their strategies.

例如，在2023年中期，GRS和DRS的分歧表明市場動態發生了變化。經過一段時間的快速價格增長並隨著GRS和低DR的增加而降低風險後，市場轉變為增長速度較慢，但​​風險增加的階段，這表明GRS和DRS的上升表明。這種轉變可能對貿易商改編其策略有影響。

Moreover, Coutts explains that extreme levels of either Growth Risk or Drawdown Risk tend to coincide with market reversals. When GRS becomes excessively high, it indicates that traders are chasing gains aggressively, and the market is pricing in optimistic future returns. Conversely, when DRS reaches extreme lows, it implies an absence of fear in the market, and traders are not concerned with potential drawdowns. Both scenarios suggest a market that may be overextended and due for a correction.

此外，Coutts解釋說，增長風險或下降風險的極端水平往往與市場逆轉相吻合。當GRS變得過高時，這表明交易者正在積極追逐收益，並且市場在樂觀的未來回報中定價。相反，當Drs達到極端低點時，這意味著市場上沒有恐懼，而交易員並不關心潛在的拖累。兩種情況都表明一個市場可能過度擴展並進行更正。

In contrast, when GRS becomes very low, it signifies a market characterized by pessimism and fear, with traders focused on minimizing losses. At the same time, high levels of Drawdown Risk suggest that traders are anticipating significant price declines. Such a scenario usually occurs during bear markets or periods of heightened volatility.

相反，當GRS變得非常低時，它表示一個以悲觀和恐懼為特徵的市場，而商人則著重於最大程度地減少損失。同時，高水平的下降風險表明，交易者預計價格會大幅下​​降。這種情況通常發生在熊市或波動率高時期。

Furthermore, Coutts' framework highlights the importance of liquidity in determining the pace of Bitcoin’s price cycles.

此外，COUTTS的框架突出了流動性在確定比特幣價格週期的步伐中的重要性。

During periods of high liquidity, such as 2020-2021, we observe a steeper incline in the Bitcoin price chart, indicating swift price movements. Conversely, during periods of low liquidity, like 2019 or 2023, the price chart flattens, signifying slower price changes.

在高流動性期間，例如2020-2021，我們觀察到比特幣價格圖中的陡峭傾斜度，表明價格快速變動。相反，在低流動性時期（如2019年或2023年）中，價格表變平了，表示價格較慢的變化。

This correlation between liquidity and the steepness of Bitcoin’s price trends is crucial for traders adapting their timeframes and expectations for market activity.

流動性與比特幣價格趨勢陡峭度之間的這種相關性對於貿易商調整時間表和對市場活動期望的期望至關重要。

Overall, this new framework from Jamie Coutts offers a unique perspective on assessing risk across Bitcoin’s cycles, considering key market variables and behavior to offer a deeper understanding of the cryptocurrency market.

總體而言，傑米·庫茨（Jamie Coutts）的這個新框架為評估比特幣週期的風險提供了獨特的觀點，考慮了關鍵市場變量和行為，以更深入地了解加密貨幣市場。