新的比特币风险模型旨在通过流动性和行为来解码市场周期

CMT Jamie Coutts刚刚发布了一个新的比特币市场框架，这标志着了解加密货币市场的周期性性质迈出了重要一步。

A new Bitcoin market framework has been completed by Jamie Coutts, CMT, after years of conceptual development and recent weeks of technical challenges, including LLM crashes and token constraints.

经过多年的概念开发和最近几周的技术挑战（包括LLM Crashes和令牌约束），CMT的Jamie Coutts（CMT）已完成了一个新的比特币市场框架。

The first version of Coutts’ “Bitcoin Cycle Risk Framework” has now been finalized.

Coutts的“比特币周期风险框架”的第一个版本现已最终确定。

As Coutts explains, the framework does not attempt to predict tops or bottoms in Bitcoin’s price, but rather to identify critical phases of risk across the cycle—whether risk is rising, receding, or reaching extremes.

正如Coutts所解释的那样，该框架不是试图以比特币价格预测顶部或底部，而是要在整个周期内确定风险的关键阶段 - 无论风险正在上升，退缩或达到极端。

The model is designed to highlight key market variables such as liquidity, leverage, and behavioral patterns to offer a clearer picture of where BTC stands in its macro cycle.

该模型旨在突出关键市场变量，例如流动性，杠杆和行为模式，以更清晰地了解BTC在其宏观周期中的位置。

“Bitcoin is cyclical, and this model tracks why it moves,” Coutts stated.

Coutts说：“比特币是周期性的，该模型跟踪了它的移动原因。”

The chart he shared combines three core indicators—GRS (Growth Risk Score), DRS (Drawdown Risk Score), and NPRS (Net Position Risk Score)—to provide a visual overview of market conditions over time. The historical overlay of Bitcoin’s price next to these risk indicators offers powerful context for interpreting potential shifts in sentiment and risk appetite.

他共享的图表结合了三个核心指标：GRS（增长风险评分），DRS（下降风险评分）和NPRS（净位置风险评分），以视觉上概述了随着时间的推移市场条件。这些风险指标旁边的比特币价格的历史叠加为解释情感和风险食欲的潜在转变提供了有力的背景。

The strength of the framework lies in observing how these risk indicators interrelate and diverge at pivotal moments.

框架的强度在于观察这些风险指标在关键时刻如何相互关联和分歧。

For instance, a divergence in the GRS and DRS around mid-2023 suggests a shift in market dynamics. After a period of rapid price growth and decreasing risk with rising GRS and low DRS, the market transitioned into a phase of slower growth but increasing risk, indicated by declining GRS and rising DRS. This shift may have implications for traders adapting their strategies.

例如，在2023年中期，GRS和DRS的分歧表明市场动态发生了变化。经过一段时间的快速价格增长并随着GRS和低DR的增加而降低风险后，市场转变为增长速度较慢，但​​风险增加的阶段，这表明GRS和DRS的上升表明。这种转变可能对贸易商改编其策略有影响。

Moreover, Coutts explains that extreme levels of either Growth Risk or Drawdown Risk tend to coincide with market reversals. When GRS becomes excessively high, it indicates that traders are chasing gains aggressively, and the market is pricing in optimistic future returns. Conversely, when DRS reaches extreme lows, it implies an absence of fear in the market, and traders are not concerned with potential drawdowns. Both scenarios suggest a market that may be overextended and due for a correction.

此外，Coutts解释说，增长风险或下降风险的极端水平往往与市场逆转相吻合。当GRS变得过高时，这表明交易者正在积极追逐收益，并且市场在乐观的未来回报中定价。相反，当Drs达到极端低点时，这意味着市场上没有恐惧，而交易员并不关心潜在的拖累。两种情况都表明一个市场可能过度扩展并进行更正。

In contrast, when GRS becomes very low, it signifies a market characterized by pessimism and fear, with traders focused on minimizing losses. At the same time, high levels of Drawdown Risk suggest that traders are anticipating significant price declines. Such a scenario usually occurs during bear markets or periods of heightened volatility.

相反，当GRS变得非常低时，它表示一个以悲观和恐惧为特征的市场，而商人则着重于最大程度地减少损失。同时，高水平的下降风险表明，交易者预计价格会大幅下​​降。这种情况通常发生在熊市或波动率高时期。

Furthermore, Coutts' framework highlights the importance of liquidity in determining the pace of Bitcoin’s price cycles.

此外，COUTTS的框架突出了流动性在确定比特币价格周期的步伐中的重要性。

During periods of high liquidity, such as 2020-2021, we observe a steeper incline in the Bitcoin price chart, indicating swift price movements. Conversely, during periods of low liquidity, like 2019 or 2023, the price chart flattens, signifying slower price changes.

在高流动性期间，例如2020-2021，我们观察到比特币价格图中的陡峭倾斜度，表明价格快速变动。相反，在低流动性时期（如2019年或2023年）中，价格表变平了，表示价格较慢的变化。

This correlation between liquidity and the steepness of Bitcoin’s price trends is crucial for traders adapting their timeframes and expectations for market activity.

流动性与比特币价格趋势陡峭度之间的这种相关性对于贸易商调整时间表和对市场活动期望的期望至关重要。

Overall, this new framework from Jamie Coutts offers a unique perspective on assessing risk across Bitcoin’s cycles, considering key market variables and behavior to offer a deeper understanding of the cryptocurrency market.

总体而言，杰米·库茨（Jamie Coutts）的这个新框架为评估比特币周期的风险提供了独特的观点，考虑了关键市场变量和行为，以更深入地了解加密货币市场。