比特幣作為儲備資產的案例

比特幣政策研究所（BPI）的 Matthew Ferranti 博士提出了央行可能考慮持有比特幣作為儲備資產的多種原因。

The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) recently published a report titled "The Case for Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset," in which Dr. Matthew Ferranti discusses why central banks should consider adding bitcoin to their reserves. This follows a report by the European Central Bank (ECB), which claimed that bitcoin has no fair or intrinsic value and that its price appreciation is fueling division in society, a claim that was later disputed by experts.

比特幣政策研究所（BPI）最近發布了一份題為「比特幣作為儲備資產的案例」的報告，其中 Matthew Ferranti 博士討論了為什麼中央銀行應該考慮將比特幣添加到其儲備中。此前，歐洲央行（ECB）發布了一份報告，該報告聲稱比特幣沒有公平或內在價值，其價格升值正在加劇社會分裂，但這一說法後來遭到專家的質疑。

Dr. Ferranti, who holds a PhD in Economics from Harvard University and served on the White House Council of Economic Advisers, begins the report by highlighting that central banks have been increasing their gold holdings and may want to consider adding bitcoin to their reserves, given that the two assets are "analogous in some respects." He also notes that only one central bank, the Central Bank of El Salvador, has officially disclosed adding bitcoin to its sovereign reserves, with bitcoin reportedly accounting for just under 10% of the bank's reserves, while an optimal bitcoin reserve allocation would be between 2% and 5%.

費蘭蒂博士擁有哈佛大學經濟學博士學位，曾在白宮經濟顧問委員會任職，他在報告的開頭強調，各國央行一直在增加黃金持有量，並可能考慮將比特幣添加到其儲備中，因為這兩種資產「在某些方面是相似的」。他還指出，只有薩爾瓦多中央銀行正式披露將比特幣添加到其主權儲備中，據報道，比特幣佔該銀行儲備的不到10%，而最佳的比特幣儲備分配將在2 之間。

According to Dr. Ferranti, here are some reasons why central banks might want to keep some bitcoin on their balance sheets:

Ferranti 博士表示，以下是央行可能希望在資產負債表上保留一些比特幣的一些原因：

Performance During Crises

危機期間的表現

Dr. Ferranti argues in the report that "a key characteristic of a reserve asset is that the reserve asset provides a form of insurance by generating positive returns when other assets perform poorly." He adds that bitcoin has historically performed well during two types of economic crises: those related to large-scale US financial sanctions and those related to US bank failures.

費蘭蒂博士在報告中指出，“儲備資產的一個關鍵特徵是，當其他資產表現不佳時，儲備資產會產生正回報，從而提供一種保險形式。”他補充說，比特幣歷來在兩種類型的經濟危機中表現良好：與美國大規模金融制裁有關的危機和與美國銀行倒閉有關的危機。

Following both the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 and the imposition of US economic sanctions on Russia in 2022 due to the country's invasion of Ukraine, the value of bitcoin increased dramatically.

繼2023年矽谷銀行倒閉以及2022年美國因俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而對俄羅斯實施經濟制裁後，比特幣的價值大幅上漲。

Long-Term Store Of Value

長期價值儲存

While bitcoin's value can be volatile to the downside in the short term, it tends to outpace many other assets over longer time horizons, due in part to its halving cycle, argues Dr. Ferranti.

費蘭蒂博士認為，雖然比特幣的價值在短期內可能會波動下行，但從長遠來看，它往往會超過許多其他資產，部分原因是其減半週期。

Dr. Ferranti acknowledges that assets like bitcoin and gold can underperform for extended periods, but both assets perform well during inflationary periods. He also adds that a rise in bitcoin's price may actually predict an upcoming bout of inflation.

費蘭蒂博士承認，比特幣和黃金等資產可能在較長時間內表現不佳，但這兩種資產在通膨時期表現良好。他還補充說，比特幣價格的上漲實際上可能預示著即將到來的通貨膨脹。

"Research suggests that changes in the price of bitcoin tend to predict changes in expected inflation," writes Dr. Ferranti.

「研究表明，比特幣價格的變化往往可以預測預期通膨的變化，」費蘭蒂博士寫道。

Effective Portfolio Diversifier

有效的投資組合多元化

Dr. Ferranti cites the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which found that "the price of bitcoin is not correlated with any type of macroeconomic news except news related to inflation."

費蘭蒂博士引用了紐約聯邦儲備銀行的說法，該銀行發現“除了與通貨膨脹相關的新聞外，比特幣的價格與任何類型的宏觀經濟新聞都沒有相關性。”

Because of this, Dr. Ferranti argues, bitcoin is an effective portfolio diversifier.

費蘭蒂博士認為，正因為如此，比特幣是一種有效的投資組合多元化工具。

He argues that this is especially true given that bitcoin's correlation with traditional reserve assets (e.g., gold, foreign currencies) is low.

他認為，鑑於比特幣與傳統儲備資產（如黃金、外幣）的相關性較低，這一點尤其正確。

Lack Of Default Risk

缺乏違約風險

Bitcoin does not carry default risk for three reasons, according to Dr. Ferranti. The first is that bitcoin, unlike stocks and bonds, does not represent a claim on future cash flows. The second is that the Bitcoin mining process cryptographically secures the network. And the third is that it's immune to financial sanctions, which are considered a form of "selective default." If a country custodies certain investment assets on behalf of a central bank and freezes access to those assets, like the way the Bank of England froze almost $2 billion of Venezuela's gold that it held in its custody, this is classified as selective default. Selective default cannot occur with bitcoin if a country takes custody of it, because bitcoin cannot be legally banned and can be used without permission.

費蘭蒂博士表示，基於三個原因，比特幣不存在違約風險。首先，與股票和債券不同，比特幣並不代表對未來現金流的索取權。第二個是比特幣挖礦過程以加密方式保護網路。第三，它不受金融制裁的影響，金融制裁被視為「選擇性違約」的一種形式。如果一個國家代表中央銀行託管某些投資資產並凍結對這些資產的使用，就像英格蘭銀行凍結其託管的委內瑞拉近 20 億美元黃金的方式一樣，這被歸類為選擇性違約。如果一個國家託管比特幣，就不會發生選擇性違約，因為比特幣不能被法律禁止，並且可以在未經許可的情況下使用。

Deep Liquidity

深度流動性

While bitcoin is not as liquid as the US Treasury market, which is the most liquid market in the world, it has become notably more liquid in recent years, with a market cap of over $1.3 billion.

雖然比特幣的流動性不如全球流動性最強的美國國債市場，但近年來其流動性明顯增強，市值超過 13 億美元。

Dr. Ferranti notes that "[bitcoin's] liquidity is sufficient to accommodate transactions in the billions of dollars, comparable to gold." While gold's market cap is still about 14 times that of bitcoin's, bitcoin is still quite liquid, at least much more so than a decade ago, when its market cap was a fraction of what it is now.

費蘭蒂博士指出，“[比特幣]的流動性足以容納數十億美元的交易，與黃金相當。”雖然黃金的市值仍約為比特幣的 14 倍，但比特幣的流動性仍然相當高，至少比十年前要好得多，當時其市值只是現在的一小部分。

Central Banks Still Skeptical

央行仍持懷疑態度

Despite Dr. Ferranti's compelling arguments in his report, central banks remain skeptical about holding bitcoin.

儘管費蘭蒂博士在報告中提出了令人信服的論點，但各國央行仍對持有比特幣持懷疑態度。

However, it's worth noting that governments around the world, including those of Bhutan and Ethiopia, are mining bitcoin.

然而，值得注意的是，包括不丹和衣索比亞在內的世界各國政府都在開採比特幣。

Will any of those Bitcoin mining profits be funneled into the coffers of those countries' central banks? It remains to be seen.

這些比特幣挖礦利潤是否會流入這些國家央行的金庫？這還有待觀察。

Perhaps some central banks are quietly acquiring bitcoin, while others may be considering the pros and cons of putting bitcoin on their balance sheets, as Dr. Ferranti suggests.

正如費蘭蒂博士所說，也許一些央行正在悄悄收購比特幣，而其他央行可能正在考慮將比特幣納入資產負債表的利弊。

It's hard to imagine that some form of game theory won't come into play once one or two central banks announce that they've followed El Salvador's lead in holding bitcoin as a reserve asset, especially if one of

很難想像，一旦一兩家央行宣布效法薩爾瓦多持有比特幣作為儲備資產，某種形式的博弈論就不會發揮作用，特別是如果其中之一