比特币作为储备资产的案例

比特币政策研究所（BPI）的 Matthew Ferranti 博士提出了央行可能考虑持有比特币作为储备资产的多种原因。

The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) recently published a report titled "The Case for Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset," in which Dr. Matthew Ferranti discusses why central banks should consider adding bitcoin to their reserves. This follows a report by the European Central Bank (ECB), which claimed that bitcoin has no fair or intrinsic value and that its price appreciation is fueling division in society, a claim that was later disputed by experts.

比特币政策研究所（BPI）最近发布了一份题为“比特币作为储备资产的案例”的报告，其中 Matthew Ferranti 博士讨论了为什么中央银行应该考虑将比特币添加到其储备中。此前，欧洲央行（ECB）发布了一份报告，该报告声称比特币没有公平或内在价值，其价格升值正在加剧社会分裂，但这一说法后来遭到专家的质疑。

Dr. Ferranti, who holds a PhD in Economics from Harvard University and served on the White House Council of Economic Advisers, begins the report by highlighting that central banks have been increasing their gold holdings and may want to consider adding bitcoin to their reserves, given that the two assets are "analogous in some respects." He also notes that only one central bank, the Central Bank of El Salvador, has officially disclosed adding bitcoin to its sovereign reserves, with bitcoin reportedly accounting for just under 10% of the bank's reserves, while an optimal bitcoin reserve allocation would be between 2% and 5%.

费兰蒂博士拥有哈佛大学经济学博士学位，曾在白宫经济顾问委员会任职，他在报告的开头强调，各国央行一直在增加黄金持有量，并可能考虑将比特币添加到其储备中，因为这两种资产“在某些方面是相似的”。他还指出，只有萨尔瓦多中央银行正式披露将比特币添加到其主权储​​备中，据报道，比特币占该银行储备的不到 10%，而最佳的比特币储备分配将在 2 之间。 %和5%。

According to Dr. Ferranti, here are some reasons why central banks might want to keep some bitcoin on their balance sheets:

Ferranti 博士表示，以下是央行可能希望在资产负债表上保留一些比特币的一些原因：

Performance During Crises

危机期间的表现

Dr. Ferranti argues in the report that "a key characteristic of a reserve asset is that the reserve asset provides a form of insurance by generating positive returns when other assets perform poorly." He adds that bitcoin has historically performed well during two types of economic crises: those related to large-scale US financial sanctions and those related to US bank failures.

费兰蒂博士在报告中指出，“储备资产的一个关键特征是，当其他资产表现不佳时，储备资产会产生正回报，从而提供一种保险形式。”他补充说，比特币历来在两种类型的经济危机中表现良好：与美国大规模金融制裁有关的危机和与美国银行倒闭有关的危机。

Following both the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 and the imposition of US economic sanctions on Russia in 2022 due to the country's invasion of Ukraine, the value of bitcoin increased dramatically.

继2023年硅谷银行倒闭以及2022年美国因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而对俄罗斯实施经济制裁后，比特币的价值大幅上涨。

Long-Term Store Of Value

长期价值储存

While bitcoin's value can be volatile to the downside in the short term, it tends to outpace many other assets over longer time horizons, due in part to its halving cycle, argues Dr. Ferranti.

费兰蒂博士认为，虽然比特币的价值在短期内可能会波动下行，但从长远来看，它往往会超过许多其他资产，部分原因是其减半周期。

Dr. Ferranti acknowledges that assets like bitcoin and gold can underperform for extended periods, but both assets perform well during inflationary periods. He also adds that a rise in bitcoin's price may actually predict an upcoming bout of inflation.

费兰蒂博士承认，比特币和黄金等资产可能会在较长时间内表现不佳，但这两种资产在通胀时期表现良好。他还补充说，比特币价格的上涨实际上可能预示着即将到来的通货膨胀。

"Research suggests that changes in the price of bitcoin tend to predict changes in expected inflation," writes Dr. Ferranti.

“研究表明，比特币价格的变化往往可以预测预期通胀的变化，”费兰蒂博士写道。

Effective Portfolio Diversifier

有效的投资组合多元化

Dr. Ferranti cites the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which found that "the price of bitcoin is not correlated with any type of macroeconomic news except news related to inflation."

费兰蒂博士引用了纽约联邦储备银行的说法，该银行发现“除了与通货膨胀相关的新闻外，比特币的价格与任何类型的宏观经济新闻都没有相关性。”

Because of this, Dr. Ferranti argues, bitcoin is an effective portfolio diversifier.

费兰蒂博士认为，正因为如此，比特币是一种有效的投资组合多元化工具。

He argues that this is especially true given that bitcoin's correlation with traditional reserve assets (e.g., gold, foreign currencies) is low.

他认为，鉴于比特币与传统储备资产（例如黄金、外币）的相关性较低，这一点尤其正确。

Lack Of Default Risk

缺乏违约风险

Bitcoin does not carry default risk for three reasons, according to Dr. Ferranti. The first is that bitcoin, unlike stocks and bonds, does not represent a claim on future cash flows. The second is that the Bitcoin mining process cryptographically secures the network. And the third is that it's immune to financial sanctions, which are considered a form of "selective default." If a country custodies certain investment assets on behalf of a central bank and freezes access to those assets, like the way the Bank of England froze almost $2 billion of Venezuela's gold that it held in its custody, this is classified as selective default. Selective default cannot occur with bitcoin if a country takes custody of it, because bitcoin cannot be legally banned and can be used without permission.

费兰蒂博士表示，出于三个原因，比特币不存在违约风险。首先，与股票和债券不同，比特币并不代表对未来现金流的索取权。第二个是比特币挖掘过程以加密方式保护网络。第三，它不受金融制裁的影响，金融制裁被视为“选择性违约”的一种形式。如果一个国家代表中央银行托管某些投资资产并冻结对这些资产的使用，就像英格兰银行冻结其托管的委内瑞拉近 20 亿美元黄金的方式一样，这被归类为选择性违约。如果一个国家托管比特币，就不会发生选择性违约，因为比特币不能被法律禁止，并且可以在未经许可的情况下使用。

Deep Liquidity

深度流动性

While bitcoin is not as liquid as the US Treasury market, which is the most liquid market in the world, it has become notably more liquid in recent years, with a market cap of over $1.3 billion.

虽然比特币的流动性不如全球流动性最强的美国国债市场，但近年来其流动性明显增强，市值超过 13 亿美元。

Dr. Ferranti notes that "[bitcoin's] liquidity is sufficient to accommodate transactions in the billions of dollars, comparable to gold." While gold's market cap is still about 14 times that of bitcoin's, bitcoin is still quite liquid, at least much more so than a decade ago, when its market cap was a fraction of what it is now.

费兰蒂博士指出，“[比特币]的流动性足以容纳数十亿美元的交易，与黄金相当。”虽然黄金的市值仍约为比特币的 14 倍，但比特币的流动性仍然相当高，至少比十年前要好得多，当时其市值只是现在的一小部分。

Central Banks Still Skeptical

央行仍持怀疑态度

Despite Dr. Ferranti's compelling arguments in his report, central banks remain skeptical about holding bitcoin.

尽管费兰蒂博士在报告中提出了令人信服的论点，但各国央行仍然对持有比特币持怀疑态度。

However, it's worth noting that governments around the world, including those of Bhutan and Ethiopia, are mining bitcoin.

然而，值得注意的是，包括不丹和埃塞俄比亚在内的世界各国政府都在开采比特币。

Will any of those Bitcoin mining profits be funneled into the coffers of those countries' central banks? It remains to be seen.

这些比特币挖矿利润是否会流入这些国家央行的金库？这还有待观察。

Perhaps some central banks are quietly acquiring bitcoin, while others may be considering the pros and cons of putting bitcoin on their balance sheets, as Dr. Ferranti suggests.

正如费兰蒂博士所说，也许一些央行正在悄悄收购比特币，而其他央行可能正在考虑将比特币纳入资产负债表的利弊。

It's hard to imagine that some form of game theory won't come into play once one or two central banks announce that they've followed El Salvador's lead in holding bitcoin as a reserve asset, especially if one of

很难想象，一旦一两家央行宣布效仿萨尔瓦多持有比特币作为储备资产，某种形式的博弈论就不会发挥作用，特别是如果其中之一