根據熱上限比率，比特幣價格可能不會被高估

鏈上分析公司 CryptoQuant 的執行長解釋說，根據其網路基本面，比特幣的價格目前並未被高估。

Bitcoin’s price has seen a massive surge in 2021, climbing from lows of around $29,000 at the beginning of the year to highs of nearly $70,000 in recent weeks. This rapid ascent has sparked a debate among analysts over whether the cryptocurrency is now overvalued.

比特幣的價格在 2021 年大幅上漲，從年初約 29,000 美元的低點攀升至最近幾週近 70,000 美元的高點。這種快速上漲引發了分析師關於加密貨幣現在是否被高估的爭論。

One metric that can be used to assess Bitcoin’s valuation is the Thermo Cap Ratio. The Thermo Cap is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates the total value of the asset by taking each token’s value as the same as the spot price when it was mined on the network.

可用於評估比特幣估值的一項指標是熱上限比率。 Thermo Cap 是 BTC 的資本化模型，透過將每個代幣的價值與網路上開採時的現貨價格相同來計算資產的總價值。

In essence, this model calculates the cumulative value of the coins mined by the miners since the inception of the blockchain. This is different from, say, the market cap, which takes the current spot price and multiplies it by the total coins in circulation.

本質上，該模型計算自區塊鏈誕生以來礦工開採的硬幣的累積價值。這與市值不同，後者採用當前現貨價格並將其乘以流通中的代幣總數。

Since the coins that miners mine are the only way to increase the cryptocurrency’s supply, the Thermo Cap can be thought of as a measure of the “true” capital inflows coming into the network.

由於礦工開採的硬幣是增加加密貨幣供應的唯一方法，因此 Thermo Cap 可以被視為衡量進入網路的「真實」資本流入的指標。

Now, the Thermo Cap Ratio is simply the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the Thermo Cap. A high value of this ratio indicates that the market cap is large relative to the Thermo Cap, suggesting that coins are trading at a higher rate than they were mined at.

現在，熱上限比率只是比特幣市值與熱上限之間的比率。該比率的較高值表明市值相對於 Thermo Cap 較大，這表明代幣的交易速度高於其開採速度。

The following chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin Thermo Cap Ratio over the asset’s history.

下圖顯示了比特幣熱上限比率在該資產歷史上的趨勢。

As the above chart shows, the Thermo Cap has seen an accelerating growth curve, reflecting the increasing capital flowing into the asset over the years. However, for the context of this topic, the indicator of interest isn't the Thermo Cap itself but rather the Thermo Cap Ratio.

如上圖所示，Thermo Cap 出現了加速成長曲線，反映出多年來流入該資產的資本不斷增加。然而，就本主題而言，感興趣的指標不是熱帽本身，而是熱帽比率。

This metric tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the Thermo Cap. The following chart shows the trend in the Thermo Cap Ratio over the asset’s history.

該指標追蹤比特幣市值與 Thermo Cap 之間的比率。下圖顯示了該資產歷史上熱帽比率的趨勢。

An interesting pattern is visible in the graph. It appears that very high values of the Thermo Cap Ratio have coincided with highs in the cryptocurrency’s price. At high values, the Bitcoin market cap is large compared to the Thermo Cap, indicating that coins are trading at a much higher rate than they were mined at.

圖中可以看到一個有趣的模式。似乎熱帽比率的非常高的值與加密貨幣價格的高點同時發生。在高價值時，比特幣的市值比熱值上限要大，這表示比特幣的交易速度遠高於開採速度。

It’s also apparent that bottoms in BTC occur when the ratio assumes low values. The recent trend in the indicator has been that of a rise, but its value has not touched the levels where bull run tops would have happened in the past.

同樣明顯的是，當該比率呈現較低值時，比特幣就會觸底。該指標最近的趨勢是上漲，但其價值尚未觸及過去牛市見頂的水平。

"Bitcoin is not currently overvalued based on network fundamentals," the CryptoQuant founder noted.

CryptoQuant 創辦人指出：“基於網路基本面，比特幣目前並未被高估。”