根据热上限比率，比特币价格可能不会被高估

链上分析公司 CryptoQuant 的首席执行官解释说，根据其网络基本面，比特币的价格目前并未被高估。

Bitcoin’s price has seen a massive surge in 2021, climbing from lows of around $29,000 at the beginning of the year to highs of nearly $70,000 in recent weeks. This rapid ascent has sparked a debate among analysts over whether the cryptocurrency is now overvalued.

比特币的价格在 2021 年大幅上涨，从年初约 29,000 美元的低点攀升至最近几周近 70,000 美元的高点。这种快速上涨引发了分析师关于加密货币现在是否被高估的争论。

One metric that can be used to assess Bitcoin’s valuation is the Thermo Cap Ratio. The Thermo Cap is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates the total value of the asset by taking each token’s value as the same as the spot price when it was mined on the network.

可用于评估比特币估值的一项指标是热上限比率。 Thermo Cap 是 BTC 的资本化模型，通过将每个代币的价值与网络上开采时的现货价格相同来计算资产的总价值。

In essence, this model calculates the cumulative value of the coins mined by the miners since the inception of the blockchain. This is different from, say, the market cap, which takes the current spot price and multiplies it by the total coins in circulation.

本质上，该模型计算自区块链诞生以来矿工开采的硬币的累积价值。这与市值不同，后者采用当前现货价格并将其乘以流通中的代币总数。

Since the coins that miners mine are the only way to increase the cryptocurrency’s supply, the Thermo Cap can be thought of as a measure of the “true” capital inflows coming into the network.

由于矿工开采的硬币是增加加密货币供应的唯一方法，因此 Thermo Cap 可以被视为衡量进入网络的“真实”资本流入的指标。

Now, the Thermo Cap Ratio is simply the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the Thermo Cap. A high value of this ratio indicates that the market cap is large relative to the Thermo Cap, suggesting that coins are trading at a higher rate than they were mined at.

现在，热上限比率只是比特币市值与热上限之间的比率。该比率的较高值表明市值相对于 Thermo Cap 较大，这表明代币的交易速度高于其开采速度。

The following chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin Thermo Cap Ratio over the asset’s history.

下图显示了比特币热上限比率在该资产历史上的趋势。

As the above chart shows, the Thermo Cap has seen an accelerating growth curve, reflecting the increasing capital flowing into the asset over the years. However, for the context of this topic, the indicator of interest isn't the Thermo Cap itself but rather the Thermo Cap Ratio.

如上图所示，Thermo Cap 出现了加速增长曲线，反映出多年来流入该资产的资本不断增加。然而，就本主题而言，感兴趣的指标不是热帽本身，而是热帽比率。

This metric tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the Thermo Cap. The following chart shows the trend in the Thermo Cap Ratio over the asset’s history.

该指标跟踪比特币市值与 Thermo Cap 之间的比率。下图显示了该资产历史上热帽比率的趋势。

An interesting pattern is visible in the graph. It appears that very high values of the Thermo Cap Ratio have coincided with highs in the cryptocurrency’s price. At high values, the Bitcoin market cap is large compared to the Thermo Cap, indicating that coins are trading at a much higher rate than they were mined at.

图中可以看到一个有趣的模式。似乎热帽比率的非常高的值与加密货币价格的高点同时发生。在高价值时，比特币的市值比热值上限要大，这表明比特币的交易速度远高于开采速度。

It’s also apparent that bottoms in BTC occur when the ratio assumes low values. The recent trend in the indicator has been that of a rise, but its value has not touched the levels where bull run tops would have happened in the past.

同样明显的是，当该比率呈现较低值时，比特币就会触底。该指标最近的趋势是上涨，但其价值尚未触及过去牛市见顶的水平。

"Bitcoin is not currently overvalued based on network fundamentals," the CryptoQuant founder noted.

CryptoQuant 创始人指出：“基于网络基本面，比特币目前并未被高估。”