比特幣礦業巨頭在減半前就展現信心

儘管由於現貨比特幣 ETF 流量增加，比特幣今年迄今表現不佳，但比特幣礦業公司在即將到來的減半之前仍然保持樂觀。他們預計減半後的業績將會改善，因為這有利於整合獲勝者，並預計由於區塊鏈活動的增加，交易費收入也會增加。儘管人工智慧的進步可能會為低成本站點帶來競爭，但礦工們仍然關注比特幣，並將其視為透過人工智慧資料中心實現收入多元化的機會。

Bitcoin Mining Companies Remain Optimistic Ahead of Halving Event

比特幣礦業公司在減半事件前保持樂觀

Despite underperforming Bitcoin year-to-date, Bitcoin mining companies maintain a bullish outlook in anticipation of the upcoming halving event.

儘管比特幣今年迄今表現不佳，但比特幣礦業公司對即將到來的減半事件仍保持樂觀的前景。

Factors Contributing to Underperformance

導致表現不佳的因素

According to Bernstein, a research and brokerage firm, the underperformance of Bitcoin mining stocks is attributed to several factors:

研究和經紀公司 Bernstein 表示，比特幣礦業股表現不佳歸因於以下幾個因素：

• Strong Demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Retail liquidity has been diverted from miner stocks to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reducing demand for mining equities.
• Halving Concerns: Investors are speculating that the halving, which will reduce miner revenue by 50%, will negatively impact mining stocks.

Industry Consolidation and Optimism

對現貨比特幣ETF 的強勁需求：零售流動性已從礦商股票轉移到現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF），減少了對礦業股票的需求。商收入減少50% ，將對礦業股產生負面影響。

Marathon CEO Fred Thiel believes that mining stocks have been viewed primarily as proxies for Bitcoin, leading to their underperformance. However, he anticipates that the halving will benefit larger, more efficient miners, driving consolidation in the industry. CleanSpark CEO Zack Bradford echoes this sentiment, predicting the emergence of four dominant public mining companies: CleanSpark, Marathon, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining.

馬拉松執行長 Fred Thiel 認為，礦業股主要被視為比特幣的替代品，導致其表現不佳。不過，他預計減半將使規模更大、效率更高的礦商受益，進而推動產業整合。 CleanSpark 執行長 Zack Bradford 呼應了這一觀點，並預測將出現四家主導的公共挖礦公司：CleanSpark、Marathon、Riot Platforms 和 Cipher Mining。

Riot Platforms, while focusing on organic expansion, expects sentiment to improve once it brings a new 1 GW site online, doubling its capacity by the end of 2024. Both Marathon and CleanSpark also plan to significantly expand their operations by year-end.

Riot Platforms 在專注於有機擴張的同時，預計一旦新的 1 GW 站點上線，到 2024 年底將其容量翻倍，市場情緒將會改善。

Impact of Bitcoin Halving

比特幣減半的影響

The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to occur on April 20th, 2023, around 1:40 a.m. ET. During a halving event, the block reward for miners is reduced by 50%. Despite the reduction in revenue, miners will continue to earn transaction fees from each block mined.

下一次比特幣減半預計發生在 2023 年 4 月 20 日，美國東部時間凌晨 1:40 左右。在減半事件期間，礦工的區塊獎勵減少 50%。儘管收入減少，礦工仍將繼續從開採的每個區塊中賺取交易費。

Historically, halving events have presented challenges for miners. However, given the rise in Bitcoin's price this year, miners are reporting near-record high dollar revenues and strong balance sheets, providing a cushion ahead of the halving.

從歷史上看，減半事件給礦工帶來了挑戰。然而，鑑於今年比特幣價格上漲，礦商報告的美元收入接近歷史新高，資產負債表強勁，為減半之前提供了緩衝。

Transaction Fees and AI's Dual Impact

交易費用和人工智慧的雙重影響

Bernstein analysts highlight the increased economic activity on the blockchain, such as the proliferation of app developers, Layer 2 scaling infrastructure teams, and NFTs, as a source of additional transaction fee revenue for miners. These fees currently account for approximately 10% of miner revenue and provide an additional buffer after the halving.

Bernstein 分析師強調，區塊鏈上經濟活動的增加，例如應用程式開發人員、第 2 層擴展基礎設施團隊和 NFT 的激增，是礦工額外交易費收入的來源。這些費用目前約佔礦工收入的 10%，並在減半後提供額外的緩衝。

The growing demand for AI presents both opportunities and challenges for the mining industry. While AI can help reduce Bitcoin ASIC chip costs, it also intensifies competition for acquiring sites in low energy cost regions like Texas.

對人工智慧不斷增長的需求為採礦業帶來了機會和挑戰。雖然人工智慧可以幫助降低比特幣 ASIC 晶片成本，但它也加劇了德克薩斯州等低能源成本地區收購站點的競爭。

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Outlook

地緣政治緊張局勢與市場前景

Over the past week, Bitcoin has experienced an 8.7% decline to $66,016, largely driven by geopolitical tensions. However, analysts believe that if geopolitical surprises subside, current price levels could entice investors.

過去一周，比特幣下跌 8.7% 至 66,016 美元，主要受地緣政治緊張局勢推動。然而，分析師認為，如果地緣政治意外消退，目前的物價水準可能會吸引投資者。

Despite the halving-related headwinds, Bernstein anticipates outperformance for major public miners compared to Bitcoin over the next 12 months. This optimism stems from increased market share, strong revenues and production capacity, and additional opportunities for revenue diversification.

儘管存在與減半相關的不利因素，伯恩斯坦預計未來 12 個月內主要公共礦商的表現將優於比特幣。這種樂觀情緒源自於市場佔有率的增加、強勁的收入和生產能力以及收入多元化的額外機會。