比特币矿业巨头在减半前表现出信心

尽管由于现货比特币 ETF 流量增加，比特币今年迄今表现不佳，但比特币矿业公司在即将到来的减半之前仍然保持乐观。他们预计减半后的业绩会有所改善，因为这有利于整合获胜者，并预计由于区块链活动的增加，交易费收入也会增加。尽管人工智能的进步可能会给低成本站点带来竞争，但矿工们仍然关注比特币，并将其视为通过人工智能数据中心实现收入多元化的机会。

Bitcoin Mining Companies Remain Optimistic Ahead of Halving Event

比特币矿业公司在减半事件之前保持乐观

Despite underperforming Bitcoin year-to-date, Bitcoin mining companies maintain a bullish outlook in anticipation of the upcoming halving event.

尽管比特币今年迄今表现不佳，但比特币矿业公司对即将到来的减半事件仍保持乐观的前景。

Factors Contributing to Underperformance

导致表现不佳的因素

According to Bernstein, a research and brokerage firm, the underperformance of Bitcoin mining stocks is attributed to several factors:

研究和经纪公司 Bernstein 表示，比特币矿业股表现不佳归因于以下几个因素：

• Strong Demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Retail liquidity has been diverted from miner stocks to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reducing demand for mining equities.
• Halving Concerns: Investors are speculating that the halving, which will reduce miner revenue by 50%, will negatively impact mining stocks.

Industry Consolidation and Optimism

对现货比特币 ETF 的强劲需求：零售流动性已从矿商股票转移到现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），减少了对矿业股票的需求。减半担忧：投资者猜测减半将使矿商收入减少 50% ，将对矿业股产生负面影响。行业整合与乐观

Marathon CEO Fred Thiel believes that mining stocks have been viewed primarily as proxies for Bitcoin, leading to their underperformance. However, he anticipates that the halving will benefit larger, more efficient miners, driving consolidation in the industry. CleanSpark CEO Zack Bradford echoes this sentiment, predicting the emergence of four dominant public mining companies: CleanSpark, Marathon, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining.

马拉松首席执行官 Fred Thiel 认为，矿业股主要被视为比特币的替代品，导致其表现不佳。不过，他预计减半将使规模更大、效率更高的矿商受益，从而推动行业整合。 CleanSpark 首席执行官扎克·布拉德福德 (Zack Bradford) 呼应了这一观点，并预测将出现四家占主导地位的公共挖矿公司：CleanSpark、Marathon、Riot Platforms 和 Cipher Mining。

Riot Platforms, while focusing on organic expansion, expects sentiment to improve once it brings a new 1 GW site online, doubling its capacity by the end of 2024. Both Marathon and CleanSpark also plan to significantly expand their operations by year-end.

Riot Platforms 在专注于有机扩张的同时，预计一旦新的 1 GW 站点上线，到 2024 年底将其容量翻倍，市场情绪将会改善。Marathon 和 CleanSpark 也计划在年底前大幅扩展其业务。

Impact of Bitcoin Halving

比特币减半的影响

The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to occur on April 20th, 2023, around 1:40 a.m. ET. During a halving event, the block reward for miners is reduced by 50%. Despite the reduction in revenue, miners will continue to earn transaction fees from each block mined.

下一次比特币减半预计发生在 2023 年 4 月 20 日，美国东部时间凌晨 1:40 左右。在减半事件期间，矿工的区块奖励减少 50%。尽管收入减少，矿工仍将继续从开采的每个区块中赚取交易费。

Historically, halving events have presented challenges for miners. However, given the rise in Bitcoin's price this year, miners are reporting near-record high dollar revenues and strong balance sheets, providing a cushion ahead of the halving.

从历史上看，减半事件给矿工带来了挑战。然而，鉴于今年比特币价格上涨，矿商报告的美元收入接近历史新高，资产负债表强劲，为减半之前提供了缓冲。

Transaction Fees and AI's Dual Impact

交易费用和人工智能的双重影响

Bernstein analysts highlight the increased economic activity on the blockchain, such as the proliferation of app developers, Layer 2 scaling infrastructure teams, and NFTs, as a source of additional transaction fee revenue for miners. These fees currently account for approximately 10% of miner revenue and provide an additional buffer after the halving.

Bernstein 分析师强调，区块链上经济活动的增加，例如应用程序开发人员、第 2 层扩展基础设施团队和 NFT 的激增，是矿工额外交易费收入的来源。这些费用目前约占矿工收入的 10%，并在减半后提供额外的缓冲。

The growing demand for AI presents both opportunities and challenges for the mining industry. While AI can help reduce Bitcoin ASIC chip costs, it also intensifies competition for acquiring sites in low energy cost regions like Texas.

对人工智能不断增长的需求给采矿业带来了机遇和挑战。虽然人工智能可以帮助降低比特币 ASIC 芯片成本，但它也加剧了德克萨斯州等低能源成本地区收购站点的竞争。

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Outlook

地缘政治紧张局势和市场前景

Over the past week, Bitcoin has experienced an 8.7% decline to $66,016, largely driven by geopolitical tensions. However, analysts believe that if geopolitical surprises subside, current price levels could entice investors.

过去一周，比特币下跌 8.7% 至 66,016 美元，主要受地缘政治紧张局势推动。然而，分析师认为，如果地缘政治意外消退，当前的价格水平可能会吸引投资者。

Despite the halving-related headwinds, Bernstein anticipates outperformance for major public miners compared to Bitcoin over the next 12 months. This optimism stems from increased market share, strong revenues and production capacity, and additional opportunities for revenue diversification.

尽管存在与减半相关的不利因素，伯恩斯坦预计未来 12 个月内主要公共矿商的表现将优于比特币。这种乐观情绪源于市场份额的增加、强劲的收入和生产能力以及收入多元化的额外机会。