比特幣的市值在過去一年中一直在擴大

比特幣在加密貨幣領域的市值一直在擴大

Written by: Huang Shiliang

Over the past year, Bitcoin's market capitalization in the cryptocurrency space has been expanding, and now it is now the highest in the past five years, exceeding 63%.

在過去的一年中，比特幣在加密貨幣領域的市值一直在擴大，現在它是過去五年中最高的，超過63％。

Maybe this number is the biggest blow to ETH investors, not the ETH price itself, at least it hit me to the point where I can almost hide under the covers and cry, if I started lying flat on BTC five years ago, how can I be like this today.

也許這個數字是對ETH投資者的最大打擊，而不是ETH價格本身，至少它使我幾乎可以躲在封面並哭泣的地步，如果我五年前開始躺在BTC上，今天我該怎麼能像這樣。

Ever since the ETH/BTC exchange rate dropped by 4%, I've been asking myself, is this thing going to go down any longer? What should I do? TMD, I was so angry that I kept asking until it was less than 2%, completely speechless.

自從ETH/BTC匯率下降4％以來，我一直在問自己，這件事會再下降了嗎？我應該怎麼辦？ TMD，我很生氣，以至於我一直在問直到不到2％，完全無語。

We need to think hard about this question, will Bitcoin's market capitalization lead remain the same for a long time? Investing in cryptocurrencies is not lying flat on BTC and pulling down, don't look into anything else.

我們需要對這個問題進行努力思考，長期以來，比特幣的市值領導者會保持不變嗎？投資加密貨幣並不是躺在BTC上並撤下的，不要看其他任何東西。

I would like to compare the situation in other areas and whether the leading companies in other industries have been dominant for a long time.

我想比較其他領域的情況，以及其他行業的主要公司是否長期以來一直占主導地位。

The easiest thing to think of is, of course, gold, and I asked ChatGPT and Gemini to investigate the market value distribution of precious metals separately, as shown in the following table:

當然，最簡單的事情是黃金，我要求Chatgpt和Gemini分別研究貴金屬的市場價值分佈，如下表所示：

Table 1: Distribution of market capitalization of precious metals

表1：貴金屬市值的分配

Gold's market capitalization dominance is largely due to its brand, which has been used as a currency and store of value for thousands of years. Brand is an inherent imagination in the hearts of human beings, and this barrier is very high.

Gold的市值主導地位主要是由於其品牌，該品牌已被用作數千年的貨幣和價值。品牌是人類心中的固有想像力，這個障礙很高。

I feel like Bitcoin is more like this.

我覺得比特幣更像是這樣。

Second, it is worth comparing the proportion of fiat currencies in the global foreign exchange reserve currencies. ChatGPT and Gemini are out again.

其次，值得比較全球外匯儲備貨幣中法定貨幣的比例。 Chatgpt和Gemini再次出局。

Table 2: Currency structure of global foreign exchange reserves for the fourth quarter of 2024

表2：2024年第四季度全球外匯儲量的貨幣結構

The core reason for the absolute monopoly of the US dollar is that the United States is the world's largest economy, the depth of the US bond market is irreplaceable, and the world's major international trade, especially oil, is denominated in US dollars. In addition, the auxiliary factors are the politics, culture, and Fed of the United States, which are too awesome.

絕對壟斷美元的核心原因是美國是世界上最大的經濟體，美國債券市場的深度是不可替代的，世界上主要的國際貿易，尤其是石油，以美元計價。此外，輔助因素是美國的政治，文化和餵養，太棒了。

But the trend now may be to decline the monopoly of the dollar, mainly challenged by the yuan.

但是現在的趨勢可能是拒絕美元的壟斷，主要受到人民幣的挑戰。

Compared to Bitcoin's market capitalization in the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin does not have the advantage of the US dollar, and Bitcoin does not create the most useful thing in the blockchain world. On the contrary, Ethereum, the second in the market, is a bit like the US dollar, providing various infrastructure and use cases for the entire industry.

與比特幣在加密貨幣領域的市值相比，比特幣沒有美元的優勢，而比特幣並未在區塊鏈世界中創造最有用的東西。相反，以太坊是市場上的第二個，有點像美元，為整個行業提供了各種基礎設施和用例。

Let's take a look at the situation of the major well-known companies.

讓我們看一下主要知名公司的情況。

Note that for the sake of comparison, I'm using the company's share of "captured value", i.e., it's not market share (concepts like user volume) or the market capitalization distribution of stocks that are directly related to making money.

請注意，為了進行比較，我正在使用公司的“捕獲價值”份額，即，這不是市場份額（諸如用戶量之類的概念）或與賺錢直接相關的股票的市值分配。

Table 3: Share of well-known firms' earning power among their peers

表3：著名公司在同行中的賺錢能力

From the above three types of cases, we can summarize several major mechanisms of value capture.

從以上三種類型的情況中，我們可以總結幾種價值捕獲的主要機制。

Brands and premiums: iPhone, Moutai, gold, BTC is undoubtedly the same

品牌和保費：iPhone，Moutai，Gold，BTC無疑是一樣的

Technology/capital barriers: NVIDIA, TSMC

技術/資本障礙：NVIDIA，TSMC

Network effects: AWS, Google

網絡效果：AWS，Google

Resource scarcity or sovereign endorsement: gold, US dollar (Bitcoin may be related to this)

資源稀缺或主權認可：黃金，美元（比特幣可能與此有關）

Economies of scale: Amazon Web Services, TSMC foundry, NVIDIA GPUs

規模經濟：Amazon Web服務，TSMC鑄造廠，NVIDIA GPU

I think the core factor that Bitcoin's market capitalization occupies an absolute leading advantage in the blockchain is: brand.

我認為比特幣市值在區塊鏈中佔據絕對領先優勢的核心因素是：品牌。

The ability of brands to capture value in the same industry can be accounted for by iPhones at 85% and gold at 90%.

品牌在同一行業中捕獲價值的能力可以由iPhone以85％和90％的黃金來解釋。

If the competition among currencies in the cryptocurrency industry ultimately depends on brands, then Bitcoin's current market capitalization of 63% is not high.

如果加密貨幣行業的貨幣之間的競爭最終取決於品牌，那麼比特幣目前的市值為63％並不高。

If that's the case, the ETH Holder is really going to cry.

如果是這樣，ETH持有人真的會哭泣。

But can we believe that the brand is the core of the coin and blockchain?

但是我們可以相信該品牌是硬幣和區塊鏈的核心嗎？

Shouldn't it be decentralization, network effects, user volume, application scenario landing, etc.?

不應該是權力下放，網絡效果，用戶量，應用程序場景降落等嗎？

I don't have a final answer yet.

我還沒有最終答案。

But never underestimate the value of your brand.

但是永遠不要低估品牌的價值。