比特幣的看跌勢頭：假貨還是真正的交易？

比特幣最近的浸入臨時假貨還是更深的看跌勢頭的跡象？分析鏈上數據和市場趨勢以找出答案。

Bitcoin's Bearish Momentum: Fakeout or the Real Deal?

比特幣的看跌勢頭：假貨還是真正的交易？

Bitcoin's been a rollercoaster lately, hasn't it? After a promising push toward $120,000, things stalled out, leaving many wondering if it was a fakeout. Let's dive into what's happening with Bitcoin, the bearish momentum, and whether this is just a blip or something more significant.

比特幣最近是過山車，不是嗎？在有希望的120,000美元推向12萬美元之後，事情停滯不前，讓許多人想知道這是否是假的。讓我們深入了解比特幣，看跌勢頭的情況，以及這只是一個更重要的東西。

Profit-Taking and the Cooling Rally

獲利和冷卻集會

According to Swissblock, the recent setback looks more like a pause than a complete breakdown. Profit-taking is definitely up, but it's not as intense as we saw in late 2024. This suggests a cooling-off period where the market digests recent gains.

根據Swissblock的說法，最近的挫折看起來更像是停頓，而不是完全故障。盈利肯定是在上升，但這並不像我們在2024年底看到的那樣強烈。這表明市場消化了最近的收益。

The key takeaway? Selling pressure is visible, but not extreme. Think of it as the market taking a breather, not throwing in the towel. On-chain data shows that bids are absorbing supply, indicating underlying strength.

關鍵要點？銷售壓力是可見的，但不極端。可以將其視為喘息的市場，而不是扔毛巾。鏈上數據表明，投標正在吸收供應，表明其潛在的強度。

The Temptation of Unrealized Gains

未實現的誘惑

Here's where things get interesting. A whopping 96% of the Bitcoin supply is in profit. While this sounds great, it also means there's a lot of potential sell pressure. As Swissblock puts it, "Strong holders remain. But unrealized gains are tempting sellers. Until demand returns, each bounce invites supply."

這是事情變得有趣的地方。比特幣供應量高達96％是有利可圖的。雖然這聽起來很棒，但也意味著有很多潛在的賣出壓力。正如Swissblock所說，“堅強的持有人仍然存在。但是未實現的收益是誘人的賣家。在需求收益之前，每次反彈都會邀請供應。”

The broader trend is still intact, but momentum needs a reset. It's like a coiled spring, ready to jump, but needing the right trigger.

更廣泛的趨勢仍然完好無損，但是動量需要重置。這就像一個盤繞的彈簧，準備跳躍，但需要正確的扳機。

Fundamentals Remain Strong

基本面仍然很強

Despite the bearish momentum, Bitcoin's fundamentals are holding up. Swissblock's Bitcoin Fundamentals Index reads neutral, liquidity is recovering, and while network growth is cooling, it’s not collapsing. This creates a consolidation-supportive environment where Bitcoin can grind sideways until it’s ready to break with conviction.

儘管有看跌的動力，比特幣的基本面仍在堅持下去。 Swissblock的比特幣基本面索引讀取中性，流動性正在恢復，儘管網絡增長正在冷卻，但並沒有崩潰。這創造了一個鞏固支持的環境，比特幣可以側面磨碎，直到準備好被信念打破為止。

The risk of a “failed breakout” reflects timing rather than a trend reversal. Positioning and liquidity just aren't quite aligned for a sustained continuation yet.

“突破失敗”的風險反映了時機而不是趨勢逆轉。定位和流動性尚不完全保持持續的延續。

Altcoins Under Stress

山寨幣在壓力下

The altcoin market offers additional clues. While Ethereum continues to outperform Bitcoin, most altcoins are sagging. This selectivity in risk appetite highlights the fragility of momentum outside the largest names. Historically, this pattern often precedes a decisive move in Bitcoin.

Altcoin市場提供了其他線索。儘管以太坊繼續勝過比特幣，但大多數山寨幣都在下垂。風險食慾的這種選擇性突出了最大名稱之外動量的脆弱性。從歷史上看，這種模式通常在比特幣決定性舉動之前。

The Road Ahead: Breakout or Breakdown?

前面的道路：突破或崩潰？

Swissblock is cautiously constructive, suggesting that Bitcoin is preparing for a breakout, but momentum needs to align. Until then, expect a grind. If Bitcoin flips momentum back to positive, the spillover could be huge, with Ethereum and altcoins likely to explode upward.

Swissblock謹慎地建設性，這表明比特幣正在為突破做準備，但動力需要保持一致。在那之前，期待磨碎。如果比特幣將動量恢復到積極，那麼溢出物可能會很大，以太坊和山寨幣可能會向上爆炸。

So, today’s dip to $115,000 looks less like an outright rejection than a test of the market’s ability to digest profits and reset momentum. The next impulse hinges on whether liquidity and demand can reassert themselves before profit-taking accelerates.

因此，今天的下跌至115,000美元看起來不像是對市場消化利潤和重置動力的能力的測試。下一個衝動取決於流動性和需求是否可以在獲利加速之前重新確定自己。

Institutional HODLing

機構霍德林

Don't forget the big players! Leading Bitcoin companies, like MicroStrategy and Robinhood, are HODLing massive amounts of BTC. This institutional accumulation is reducing the available supply on exchanges and signaling long-term confidence in Bitcoin's future value.

不要忘記大型球員！領先的比特幣公司，例如MicroStrategy和Robinhood，都在增加大量BTC。這種機構積累正在減少交易所的可用供應，並信號對比特幣的未來價值發出長期信心。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

Is this bearish momentum a fakeout? Maybe. Is it a buying opportunity? Possibly. One thing's for sure: Bitcoin's always keeping us on our toes. Keep an eye on those charts, folks, and remember to buckle up. The ride's never boring, is it?

這是看跌的動力嗎？或許。是購買機會嗎？可能。可以肯定的是：比特幣總是讓我們保持腳趾。密切關注這些圖表，伙計們，並記住要係好系列。這次旅程從來沒有無聊，是嗎？