比特币的市值在过去一年中一直在扩大

比特币在加密货币领域的市值一直在扩大

Written by: Huang Shiliang

Over the past year, Bitcoin's market capitalization in the cryptocurrency space has been expanding, and now it is now the highest in the past five years, exceeding 63%.

在过去的一年中，比特币在加密货币领域的市值一直在扩大，现在它是过去五年中最高的，超过63％。

Maybe this number is the biggest blow to ETH investors, not the ETH price itself, at least it hit me to the point where I can almost hide under the covers and cry, if I started lying flat on BTC five years ago, how can I be like this today.

也许这个数字是对ETH投资者的最大打击，而不是ETH价格本身，至少它使我几乎可以躲在封面并哭泣的地步，如果我五年前开始躺在BTC上，今天我该怎么能像这样。

Ever since the ETH/BTC exchange rate dropped by 4%, I've been asking myself, is this thing going to go down any longer? What should I do? TMD, I was so angry that I kept asking until it was less than 2%, completely speechless.

自从ETH/BTC汇率下降4％以来，我一直在问自己，这件事会再下降了吗？我应该怎么办？ TMD，我很生气，以至于我一直在问直到不到2％，完全无语。

We need to think hard about this question, will Bitcoin's market capitalization lead remain the same for a long time? Investing in cryptocurrencies is not lying flat on BTC and pulling down, don't look into anything else.

我们需要对这个问题进行努力思考，长期以来，比特币的市值领导者会保持不变吗？投资加密货币并不是躺在BTC上并撤下的，不要看其他任何东西。

I would like to compare the situation in other areas and whether the leading companies in other industries have been dominant for a long time.

我想比较其他领域的情况，以及其他行业的主要公司是否长期以来一直占主导地位。

The easiest thing to think of is, of course, gold, and I asked ChatGPT and Gemini to investigate the market value distribution of precious metals separately, as shown in the following table:

当然，最简单的事情是黄金，我要求Chatgpt和Gemini分别研究贵金属的市场价值分布，如下表所示：

Table 1: Distribution of market capitalization of precious metals

表1：贵金属市值的分配

Gold's market capitalization dominance is largely due to its brand, which has been used as a currency and store of value for thousands of years. Brand is an inherent imagination in the hearts of human beings, and this barrier is very high.

Gold的市值主导地位主要是由于其品牌，该品牌已被用作数千年的货币和价值。品牌是人类心中的固有想象力，这个障碍很高。

I feel like Bitcoin is more like this.

我觉得比特币更像是这样。

Second, it is worth comparing the proportion of fiat currencies in the global foreign exchange reserve currencies. ChatGPT and Gemini are out again.

其次，值得比较全球外汇储备货币中法定货币的比例。 Chatgpt和Gemini再次出局。

Table 2: Currency structure of global foreign exchange reserves for the fourth quarter of 2024

表2：2024年第四季度全球外汇储量的货币结构

The core reason for the absolute monopoly of the US dollar is that the United States is the world's largest economy, the depth of the US bond market is irreplaceable, and the world's major international trade, especially oil, is denominated in US dollars. In addition, the auxiliary factors are the politics, culture, and Fed of the United States, which are too awesome.

绝对垄断美元的核心原因是美国是世界上最大的经济体，美国债券市场的深度是不可替代的，世界上主要的国际贸易，尤其是石油，以美元计价。此外，辅助因素是美国的政治，文化和喂养，太棒了。

But the trend now may be to decline the monopoly of the dollar, mainly challenged by the yuan.

但是现在的趋势可能是拒绝美元的垄断，主要受到人民币的挑战。

Compared to Bitcoin's market capitalization in the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin does not have the advantage of the US dollar, and Bitcoin does not create the most useful thing in the blockchain world. On the contrary, Ethereum, the second in the market, is a bit like the US dollar, providing various infrastructure and use cases for the entire industry.

与比特币在加密货币领域的市值相比，比特币没有美元的优势，而比特币并未在区块链世界中创造最有用的东西。相反，以太坊是市场上的第二个，有点像美元，为整个行业提供了各种基础设施和用例。

Let's take a look at the situation of the major well-known companies.

让我们看一下主要知名公司的情况。

Note that for the sake of comparison, I'm using the company's share of "captured value", i.e., it's not market share (concepts like user volume) or the market capitalization distribution of stocks that are directly related to making money.

请注意，为了进行比较，我正在使用公司的“捕获价值”份额，即，这不是市场份额（诸如用户量之类的概念）或与赚钱直接相关的股票的市值分配。

Table 3: Share of well-known firms' earning power among their peers

表3：著名公司在同行中的赚钱能力

From the above three types of cases, we can summarize several major mechanisms of value capture.

从以上三种类型的情况中，我们可以总结几种价值捕获的主要机制。

Brands and premiums: iPhone, Moutai, gold, BTC is undoubtedly the same

品牌和保费：iPhone，Moutai，Gold，BTC无疑是一样的

Technology/capital barriers: NVIDIA, TSMC

技术/资本障碍：NVIDIA，TSMC

Network effects: AWS, Google

网络效果：AWS，Google

Resource scarcity or sovereign endorsement: gold, US dollar (Bitcoin may be related to this)

资源稀缺或主权认可：黄金，美元（比特币可能与此有关）

Economies of scale: Amazon Web Services, TSMC foundry, NVIDIA GPUs

规模经济：Amazon Web服务，TSMC铸造厂，NVIDIA GPU

I think the core factor that Bitcoin's market capitalization occupies an absolute leading advantage in the blockchain is: brand.

我认为比特币市值在区块链中占据绝对领先优势的核心因素是：品牌。

The ability of brands to capture value in the same industry can be accounted for by iPhones at 85% and gold at 90%.

品牌在同一行业中捕获价值的能力可以由iPhone以85％和90％的黄金来解释。

If the competition among currencies in the cryptocurrency industry ultimately depends on brands, then Bitcoin's current market capitalization of 63% is not high.

如果加密货币行业的货币之间的竞争最终取决于品牌，那么比特币目前的市值为63％并不高。

If that's the case, the ETH Holder is really going to cry.

如果是这样，ETH持有人真的会哭泣。

But can we believe that the brand is the core of the coin and blockchain?

但是我们可以相信该品牌是硬币和区块链的核心吗？

Shouldn't it be decentralization, network effects, user volume, application scenario landing, etc.?

不应该是权力下放，网络效果，用户量，应用程序场景降落等吗？

I don't have a final answer yet.

我还没有最终答案。

But never underestimate the value of your brand.

但是永远不要低估品牌的价值。