比特幣在自己的車道上：深入研究其相對強度的激增

我在4月初寫了一篇關於比特幣（BTC-USD）相對強度的文章，因為與美國股票相比，當時比特幣在當時提供了更多的Alpha。

I penned an article back in early April highlighting the relative strength of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) compared to U.S. equities, a perspective I felt was being largely overlooked at the time as BTC’s price action was unfolding rapidly in the mid $40k range following the apex in early 2022.

我在4月初寫了一篇文章，強調了比特幣（BTC-USD）的相對強度與美國股票相比，我覺得這一觀點在當時被忽略了，因為BTC的價格行動在2022年初的最高點之後的40k $ 40k範圍內迅速展開。

This thesis wasn’t something I developed in a vacuum, as I’d been following the narrative of "maximal Bitcoin" closely over the past year or two, a theory that essentially claims the cryptocurrency is capable of generating superior returns over the long term compared to traditional assets like U.S. equities.

這篇論文並不是我在真空中開發的，因為我在過去的一兩年中一直遵循“最大比特幣”的敘述，這一理論本質上聲稱加密貨幣能夠長期在長期內與美國股票等傳統資產產生較高的回報。

At the time, I felt this thesis was playing out in the markets' actions, and I preferred BTC’s setup compared to the S&P 500 (SPX) or the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). BTC was quickly approaching the $50k level after forming a base in the mid $30ks following the 2022 downturn, while the major U.S. equity indices were still struggling to break out of their respective trading ranges.

當時，我覺得這篇論文在市場的行動中發揮了作用，與標準普爾500指數（SPX）或NASDAQ 100（NDX）相比，我更喜歡BTC的設置。在2022年下滑之後，BTC在成立了30k的基地後，迅速接近了5萬美元的水平，而美國主要的股票指數仍在努力擺脫各自的交易範圍。

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100

標準普爾500指數和納斯達克100

Source: StockCharts

資料來源：Stockcharts

The optimists on U.S. equities were still focused on the potential for a breakout from the bear market highs, but I felt this view was becoming increasingly crowded. At the same time, I observed that BTC was quickly approaching the key $50k resistance level, a level which if cleared could lead to a substantial price increase for the cryptocurrency.

對美國股票的樂觀主義者仍然集中在熊市高點中突破的潛力，但我覺得這種觀點越來越擁擠。同時，我觀察到BTC迅速接近了5萬美元的電阻水平，如果被清除，這可能會導致加密貨幣的價格大幅上漲。

Now, a few months later, it appears that BTC has indeed continued its relative strength in outperforming U.S. equities, a trend which I believe could continue as we head into the second half of the year.

現在，幾個月後，似乎BTC確實在勝過美國股票方面的相對實力確實持續了，我認為這一趨勢可以持續到我們進入下半年。

BTC has surged past the $50k level and is now trading above $400k, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have pulled back sharply after failing to follow through on their respective breakout attempts.

BTC已經超過了5萬美元的水平，現在的交易價格超過了40萬美元，而標準普爾500指數和納斯達克100號的交易未能遵循各自的突破性嘗試後急劇退縮。

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100

標準普爾500指數和納斯達克100

Source: StockCharts

資料來源：Stockcharts

As we can see from the chart above, the S&P 500 topped out in August 2023 at 5248, just a few points shy of the bear market highs of 5244 which were set in January 2022.

從上面的圖表中可以看到，標準普爾500指數於2023年8月在5248年登上，比2022年1月的熊市高點僅幾分5244。

After rolling over from the highs, the major U.S. equity index quickly declined to lows of 4114 in March 2023 before stabilizing and rallying once again to retest the highs in May 2023.

從高點滾過來後，美國主要股票指數在2023年3月迅速下降到4114的低點，然後再次穩定和集會，再次在2023年5月重新測試高點。

After failing to follow through to new highs, the S&P 500 pulled back sharply, dropping to lows of 3509 in March 2023.

在未能遵循新的高點之後，標準普爾500指數急劇向後拉，在2023年3月下降到3509的低點。

The Nasdaq 100 also pulled back sharply after failing to follow through on a breakout attempt above the 2022 highs.

納斯達克100號在未能遵循2022高高的突破嘗試後也急劇退縮。

After topping out at 18000 in August 2023, the tech-heavy index pulled back quickly to lows of 10800 in March 2023 before stabilizing and rallying once again to retest the highs in May 2023.

在2023年8月在18000年達到18000年之後，該高科技指數於2023年3月向後迅速降至10800年的低點，然後再次穩定並集會，以重新升級到2023年5月重新測試高點。

The final attempt to breakout was met with selling pressure, and the index pulled back sharply, dropping to lows of 9668 in March 2023.

最終的突破嘗試是賣出的壓力，該指數急劇向後拉，在2023年3月下降到9668的低點。

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100

標準普爾500指數和納斯達克100

Source: StockCharts

資料來源：Stockcharts

The optimists on U.S. equities may argue that the pullback in the major U.S. equity indices was to be expected after the rapid rally from the March 2023 lows.

美國股票的樂觀主義者可能會爭辯說，在2023年3月的低點迅速集會之後，美國主要股票指數的回調將被期望。

However, I believe that the pessimistic outlook on U.S. equities is becoming increasingly crowded at this point in time, especially as we factor in the potential for the Fed to keep interest rates elevated in order to tame inflation.

但是，我認為，在此時間點，對美國股票的悲觀前景越來越擁擠，尤其是當我們考慮到美聯儲保持利率升高以使通貨膨脹率提高的潛力時。

On the other hand, I still prefer the setup for BTC, which I think stands to benefit more from a pessimistic macroeconomic outlook.

另一方面，我仍然更喜歡BTC的設置，我認為這可以從悲觀的宏觀經濟前景中受益。

The cryptocurrency has continued to rise despite the bleak economic reports, and I observed that BTC was showing relative strength even during the 2022 bear market.

儘管經濟報導慘淡，但加密貨幣仍在繼續上升，我觀察到，即使在2022年的熊市中，BTC也表現出相對的力量。

At the beginning of the year, the narrative was that BTC would be affected negatively by the FTX collapse, but I felt that the cryptocurrency could still perform well if it held the $25k level, a scenario which ultimately played out as BTC went on to rally past the $30k level.

在今年年初，敘述是BTC會受到FTX崩潰的負面影響，但是我覺得如果加密貨幣保持25,000美元的水平，這種加密貨幣仍然可以表現良好，這種情況最終在BTC持續到30k級別的情況下進行。

After dropping to lows of $25111 in November 2022 following the FTX bankruptcy, BTC stabilized and began to rally, eventually testing the 2022 highs of $52483 in March 2023.

FTX破產後，在2022年11月下降到25111美元的低點後，BTC穩定並開始集會，最終在2023年3月的2022年高點上測試了52483美元。

Following the rejection

拒絕之後