比特幣減半週期已接近頂峰。以下是未來 3 年的預期

2024 年初秋，對比特幣（BTC 0.22%）來說是重要的一年，包括 4 月的減半事件和 1 月現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准。

Bitcoin (BTC 0.22%) has had a big year in 2024, with the halving event in April and the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January. Bitcoin bulls are expecting a significant price increase in the near future -- but what comes after the next presumed spike?

比特幣（BTC 0.22%）在 2024 年經歷了重要的一年，四月發生了減半事件，一月份現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）獲得批准。比特幣多頭預計在不久的將來價格將大幅上漲，但下一次假定的飆升之後會發生什麼？

Let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s prospects in the next three years. How bad will the next crypto winter be, and is this a good time to invest in cryptocurrencies?

讓我們來看看比特幣未來三年的前景。下一個加密貨幣冬天會多糟糕，現在是投資加密貨幣的好時機嗎？

The fuel for Bitcoin's economic cycles

比特幣經濟週期的燃料

In an effort to control the digital currency’s long-term inflation, production of new Bitcoins becomes less rewarding over time. Miners are rewarded for auditing a fresh list of Bitcoin transactions, and thereby writing that data block in digital stone to secure it against future changes.

為了控制數位貨幣的長期通貨膨脹，隨著時間的推移，生產新比特幣的回報會變得越來越低。礦工因審核新的比特幣交易列表，從而將該數據塊寫入數位石頭中以確保其免受未來變化的影響而獲得獎勵。

That reward started at 50 Bitcoins per confirmed data block in the first four years. Roughly once every four years, the reward is cut in half to lower the production volume. After the fourth so-called halving on April 19, 2024, a confirmed data block is worth 3.125 Bitcoin to the miner lucky enough to perform the last calculation.

在前四年中，該獎勵從每個已確認的資料區塊 50 比特幣開始。大約每四年一次，獎勵就會減半以降低產量。在 2024 年 4 月 19 日第四次所謂的減半之後，對於幸運地執行最後一次計算的礦工來說，一個已確認的數據塊價值 3.125 比特幣。

At the same time, the difficulty of producing the right answer is almost always on the rise. Together, the difficulty increase and reduced rewards result in lower monetary rewards over time, while the costs of earning that reward soars higher.

同時，得出正確答案的難度幾乎總是增加。隨著時間的推移，難度的增加和獎勵的減少會導致金錢獎勵減少，而獲得獎勵的成本卻飆升。

Without the miners auditing Bitcoin’s transaction flow, the cryptocurrency would grind to a halt. Nobody wants a currency that won’t process value-moving transactions, so that would arguably be the end of Bitcoin as we know it. But the economics of running this increasingly expensive system depend on robust price increases over the years -- usually triggered by the halvings after a bit of a delay.

如果沒有礦工審核比特幣的交易流程，加密貨幣就會陷入停滯。沒有人想要一種不能處理價值轉移交易的貨幣，因此這可以說是我們所知的比特幣的終結。但運行這個日益昂貴的系統的經濟性取決於多年來價格的強勁上漲——通常是由延遲一段時間後的減半引發的。

The story so far

故事到目前為止

So there’s a four-year cycle of Bitcoin price moves, starting with a large increase somewhere between six months and a year after each halving.

因此，比特幣價格變動有一個四年的周期，從每次減半後六個月到一年之間的大幅上漲開始。

Now, every market is different, and the resulting chart always comes with unique quirks:

現在，每個市場都是不同的，生成的圖表總是帶有獨特的怪癖：

You’re looking at the fourth halving cycle now. It got started a bit early, setting all-time highs of $73,750 just before the actual rewards halving. That premature gain sprung from the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which made the cryptocurrency available to new buyer types such as institutional investors and self-managed retirement plans. New money flooded into the Bitcoin market, boosting coin prices in the classic supply-and-demand balancing act.

您現在正在關注第四個減半週期。它開始得有點早，在實際獎勵減半之前創下了 73,750 美元的歷史新高。這種過早的收益源於現貨比特幣 ETF 的推出，該 ETF 使機構投資者和自我管理退休計劃等新買家類型可以使用這種加密貨幣。新資金湧入比特幣市場，在經典的供需平衡行為中推高了比特幣價格。

About four months after the fourth Bitcoin halving, coin prices are down by 10%. It has been a rough ride with many twists and turns along the way, mostly based on the likelihood of the U.S. central bank’s lending rates going down again. Bitcoin is sensitive to these swings because investors see it as a high-risk investment. Anything that makes it harder or more expensive to fund Bitcoin investments will weigh on its dollar-based price.

比特幣第四次減半後大約四個月，比特幣價格下跌了 10%。這是一段艱難的旅程，一路上充滿了曲折，主要是基於聯準會貸款利率再次下降的可能性。比特幣對這些波動很敏感，因為投資者將其視為高風險投資。任何使比特幣投資變得更加困難或更昂貴的因素都會影響其以美元為基礎的價格。

Moreover, don’t forget that this cycle started from higher ground than usual. The pre-halving gains may undermine the incoming price gains. But I’m looking at uncharted waters here, so there’s also a chance that the spot Bitcoin ETFs just raised the pricing range in general. Only time will tell.

此外，不要忘記這個週期的起點比平常更高。減半前的漲幅可能會削弱即將到來的價格漲幅。但我在這裡關注的是未知領域，因此現貨比特幣 ETF 也有可能總體上提高了定價範圍。只有時間才能證明一切。

And on that note, I see nothing out of the ordinary. Bitcoin remains a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, all protected by heavy encryption and expensive transaction audits.

在這一點上，我沒有看到任何異常。比特幣仍然是一個謎中的謎，所有的一切都受到嚴格的加密和昂貴的交易審計的保護。

The stage is set for an epic struggle. Classical master investors like Warren Buffett don’t see any lasting value in this digital currency. In the opposite corner of the crypto ring, all-in Bitcoin bulls such as MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor expect it to disrupt financial systems around the world. One side suggests a price target near zero dollars per coin; the other expects Bitcoin prices to reach $13 million in a decade or so.

一場史詩般的鬥爭的舞台已經搭建好了。像華倫·巴菲特這樣的經典投資者並不認為這種數位貨幣有任何持久的價值。在加密貨幣圈的另一角，MicroStrategy 董事長 Michael Saylor 等比特幣多頭預計它將擾亂全球金融體系。一方建議每枚代幣的目標價接近零美元；另一方建議將每枚代幣的目標價定在接近零美元的水平；另一位則預計比特幣價格將在十年左右達到 1300 萬美元。

My analysis points to a bullish outcome, but the halving-based gains grow smaller in every cycle, and there’s still no telling how the ETFs are affecting the process. With a wide margin of error, Bitcoin seems poised to double by the spring of 2026 after taking the usual detour to higher prices on the way there. The cryptocurrency does look like a solid investment right now, and I’d rather keep building my crypto portfolio for the long haul than attempt to catch the best week to sell it all in this cycle.

我的分析顯示結果看漲，但基於減半的收益在每個週期都會變小，而且仍然不知道 ETF 如何影響這個過程。由於誤差幅度很大，比特幣似乎準備在 2026 年春季之前價格上漲一倍。加密貨幣現在看起來確實是一項可靠的投資，我寧願繼續長期建立我的加密貨幣投資組合，而不是試圖抓住這個週期中最好的一周來出售它們。

Another winter is surely coming, but Bitcoin should be perched far above today’s prices at that point. As always, patience is a virtue on Wall Street. Time in the market beats market timing, you know.

另一個冬天肯定會到來，但屆時比特幣的價格應該會遠遠高於今天的價格。一如既往，耐心是華爾街的美德。你知道，市場時間勝過市場時機。