比特币减半周期已接近顶峰。以下是未来 3 年的预期

2024 年初秋，对比特币（BTC 0.22%）来说是重要的一年，包括 4 月份的减半事件和 1 月份现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的批准。

Bitcoin (BTC 0.22%) has had a big year in 2024, with the halving event in April and the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January. Bitcoin bulls are expecting a significant price increase in the near future -- but what comes after the next presumed spike?

比特币（BTC 0.22%）在 2024 年经历了重要的一年，四月份发生了减半事件，一月份现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）获得批准。比特币多头预计在不久的将来价格将大幅上涨，但下一次假定的飙升之后会发生什么？

Let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s prospects in the next three years. How bad will the next crypto winter be, and is this a good time to invest in cryptocurrencies?

我们来看看比特币未来三年的前景。下一个加密货币冬天会有多糟糕，现在是投资加密货币的好时机吗？

The fuel for Bitcoin's economic cycles

比特币经济周期的燃料

In an effort to control the digital currency’s long-term inflation, production of new Bitcoins becomes less rewarding over time. Miners are rewarded for auditing a fresh list of Bitcoin transactions, and thereby writing that data block in digital stone to secure it against future changes.

为了控制数字货币的长期通货膨胀，随着时间的推移，生产新比特币的回报会变得越来越低。矿工因审核新的比特币交易列表，从而将该数据块写入数字石头中以确保其免受未来变化的影响而获得奖励。

That reward started at 50 Bitcoins per confirmed data block in the first four years. Roughly once every four years, the reward is cut in half to lower the production volume. After the fourth so-called halving on April 19, 2024, a confirmed data block is worth 3.125 Bitcoin to the miner lucky enough to perform the last calculation.

在头四年中，该奖励从每个已确认的数据块 50 比特币开始。大约每四年一次，奖励就会减半以降低产量。在 2024 年 4 月 19 日第四次所谓的减半之后，对于幸运地执行最后一次计算的矿工来说，一个已确认的数据块价值 3.125 比特币。

At the same time, the difficulty of producing the right answer is almost always on the rise. Together, the difficulty increase and reduced rewards result in lower monetary rewards over time, while the costs of earning that reward soars higher.

与此同时，得出正确答案的难度几乎总是在增加。随着时间的推移，难度的增加和奖励的减少共同导致金钱奖励的减少，而获得奖励的成本却飙升。

Without the miners auditing Bitcoin’s transaction flow, the cryptocurrency would grind to a halt. Nobody wants a currency that won’t process value-moving transactions, so that would arguably be the end of Bitcoin as we know it. But the economics of running this increasingly expensive system depend on robust price increases over the years -- usually triggered by the halvings after a bit of a delay.

如果没有矿工审核比特币的交易流程，加密货币就会陷入停滞。没有人想要一种无法处理价值转移交易的货币，因此这可以说是我们所知的比特币的终结。但运行这个日益昂贵的系统的经济性取决于多年来价格的强劲上涨——通常是由延迟一段时间后的减半引发的。

The story so far

故事到目前为止

So there’s a four-year cycle of Bitcoin price moves, starting with a large increase somewhere between six months and a year after each halving.

因此，比特币价格变动有一个四年的周期，从每次减半后六个月到一年之间的大幅上涨开始。

Now, every market is different, and the resulting chart always comes with unique quirks:

现在，每个市场都是不同的，生成的图表总是带有独特的怪癖：

You’re looking at the fourth halving cycle now. It got started a bit early, setting all-time highs of $73,750 just before the actual rewards halving. That premature gain sprung from the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which made the cryptocurrency available to new buyer types such as institutional investors and self-managed retirement plans. New money flooded into the Bitcoin market, boosting coin prices in the classic supply-and-demand balancing act.

您现在正在关注第四个减半周期。它开始得有点早，在实际奖励减半之前创下了 73,750 美元的历史新高。这种过早的收益源于现货比特币 ETF 的推出，该 ETF 使机构投资者和自我管理退休计划等新买家类型可以使用这种加密货币。新资金涌入比特币市场，在经典的供需平衡行为中推高了比特币价格。

About four months after the fourth Bitcoin halving, coin prices are down by 10%. It has been a rough ride with many twists and turns along the way, mostly based on the likelihood of the U.S. central bank’s lending rates going down again. Bitcoin is sensitive to these swings because investors see it as a high-risk investment. Anything that makes it harder or more expensive to fund Bitcoin investments will weigh on its dollar-based price.

比特币第四次减半后大约四个月，比特币价格下跌了 10%。这是一段艰难的旅程，一路上充满了曲折，主要是基于美联储贷款利率再次下降的可能性。比特币对这些波动很敏感，因为投资者将其视为高风险投资。任何使比特币投资变得更加困难或更加昂贵的因素都会影响其以美元为基础的价格。

Moreover, don’t forget that this cycle started from higher ground than usual. The pre-halving gains may undermine the incoming price gains. But I’m looking at uncharted waters here, so there’s also a chance that the spot Bitcoin ETFs just raised the pricing range in general. Only time will tell.

此外，不要忘记这个周期的起点比平常更高。减半前的涨幅可能会削弱即将到来的价格涨幅。但我在这里关注的是未知领域，因此现货比特币 ETF 也有可能总体上提高了定价范围。只有时间才能证明一切。

And on that note, I see nothing out of the ordinary. Bitcoin remains a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, all protected by heavy encryption and expensive transaction audits.

在这一点上，我没有看到任何异常。比特币仍然是一个谜中的谜，所有的一切都受到严格的加密和昂贵的交易审计的保护。

The stage is set for an epic struggle. Classical master investors like Warren Buffett don’t see any lasting value in this digital currency. In the opposite corner of the crypto ring, all-in Bitcoin bulls such as MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor expect it to disrupt financial systems around the world. One side suggests a price target near zero dollars per coin; the other expects Bitcoin prices to reach $13 million in a decade or so.

一场史诗般的斗争的舞台已经搭建好了。像沃伦·巴菲特这样的经典投资者并不认为这种数字货币有任何持久的价值。在加密货币圈的另一角，MicroStrategy 董事长 Michael Saylor 等全心全意看好比特币的人预计它会扰乱世界各地的金融体系。一方建议每枚代币的价格目标接近零美元；另一方建议将每枚代币的价格目标定在接近零美元的水平；另一位则预计比特币价格将在十年左右达到 1300 万美元。

My analysis points to a bullish outcome, but the halving-based gains grow smaller in every cycle, and there’s still no telling how the ETFs are affecting the process. With a wide margin of error, Bitcoin seems poised to double by the spring of 2026 after taking the usual detour to higher prices on the way there. The cryptocurrency does look like a solid investment right now, and I’d rather keep building my crypto portfolio for the long haul than attempt to catch the best week to sell it all in this cycle.

我的分析表明结果看涨，但基于减半的收益在每个周期都会变小，而且仍然不知道 ETF 如何影响这一过程。由于误差幅度很大，比特币似乎准备在 2026 年春季之前翻一番，此前，比特币通常会绕道走高。加密货币目前看起来确实是一项可靠的投资，我宁愿继续长期建立我的加密货币投资组合，也不愿试图抓住这个周期中最好的一周将其全部出售。

Another winter is surely coming, but Bitcoin should be perched far above today’s prices at that point. As always, patience is a virtue on Wall Street. Time in the market beats market timing, you know.

另一个冬天肯定会到来，但届时比特币的价格应该远远高于今天的价格。一如既往，耐心是华尔街的一种美德。你知道，市场时间胜过市场时机。