比特幣與黃金：哪個是最佳的價值儲存手段？

在比特幣與黃金作為優越的價值儲存手段的持續爭論中，富達全球宏觀總監 Jurrien Timmer 提供了一項分析，為這一熱門話題提供了新的視角。

The debate over Bitcoin versus gold as a superior store of value continues, with Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, providing an analysis that sheds new light on this hot topic.

關於比特幣與黃金作為一種優越的價值儲存手段的爭論仍在繼續，富達全球宏觀總監 Jurrien Timmer 提供的分析為這一熱門主題提供了新的線索。

Both assets are often viewed as hedges against fiscal dominance, where the government dilutes the value of money by increasing the money supply. This thesis is fundamentally sound, as sustained increases in the money supply typically lead to inflation. This correlation is evident when comparing the 10-year growth rate of the M2 money supply and the consumer price index.

這兩種資產通常被視為對沖財政主導地位，即政府透過增加貨幣供應量來稀釋貨幣價值。這個論點從根本上來說是合理的，因為貨幣供應量的持續增加通常會導致通貨膨脹。當比較M2貨幣供給量和消費者物價指數的10年增長率時，這種相關性就很明顯。

For Bitcoin and gold to truly solidify their roles as stores of value, there needs to be consistent above-trend growth in monetary aggregates. However, this has not yet occurred. The dramatic increase in real money mass during the pandemic was quickly reversed by the Federal Reserve’s tightening policies, suggesting that the expected conditions for BTC to thrive as a competitive analogue to gold have not yet been met.

為了真正鞏固比特幣和黃金作為價值儲存手段的作用，貨幣總量需要持續高於趨勢的成長。然而，這還沒有發生。疫情期間實際貨幣量的急劇增加很快就被聯準會的緊縮政策所扭轉，這表明比特幣作為黃金的競爭性類似物蓬勃發展的預期條件尚未滿足。

Timmer also addresses the notion of cryptocurrency as "gold 2.0," instead referring to it as "exponential gold" due to its combination of monetary properties and advanced network technology.

Timmer 也將加密貨幣的概念稱為“黃金 2.0”，而不是將其稱為“指數黃金”，因為它結合了貨幣屬性和先進的網路技術。

The discussion that Bitcoin could overtake gold in market capitalization is not new and has been going on in the community since the cryptocurrency first became public knowledge.

關於比特幣可能在市值上超越黃金的討論並不新鮮，自從加密貨幣首次成為公眾知識以來，這種討論就一直在社區中進行。

Not without reason, the first encrypted transaction was a Times headline about the global financial crisis. With the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, this debate has only intensified as hundreds of millions of people can now buy the cryptocurrency in the traditional way.

首筆加密交易成為《泰晤士報》關於全球金融危機的頭條新聞並非沒有原因。隨著現貨比特幣 ETF 的推出，這場爭論只會愈演愈烈，因為數億人現在可以以傳統方式購買加密貨幣。

Currently, gold’s market capitalization stands at over $15.6 trillion, while Bitcoin’s is approximately $1.33 trillion. For the latter to match gold's market cap, it would need to grow by 11.72 times, reaching an estimated price of nearly $790,000 per BTC

目前，黃金的市值超過 15.6 兆美元，而比特幣的市值約為 1.33 兆美元。後者要與黃金市值相匹配，需要成長 11.72 倍，達到每 BTC 近 79 萬美元的估計價格