比特币与黄金：哪个是最佳的价值储存手段？

在比特币与黄金作为一种优越的价值储存手段的持续争论中，富达全球宏观总监 Jurrien Timmer 提供了一项分析，为这一热门话题提供了新的视角。

The debate over Bitcoin versus gold as a superior store of value continues, with Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, providing an analysis that sheds new light on this hot topic.

关于比特币与黄金作为一种优越的价值储存手段的争论仍在继续，富达全球宏观总监 Jurrien Timmer 提供的分析为这一热门话题提供了新的线索。

Both assets are often viewed as hedges against fiscal dominance, where the government dilutes the value of money by increasing the money supply. This thesis is fundamentally sound, as sustained increases in the money supply typically lead to inflation. This correlation is evident when comparing the 10-year growth rate of the M2 money supply and the consumer price index.

这两种资产通常被视为对冲财政主导地位，即政府通过增加货币供应量来稀释货币价值。这个论点从根本上来说是合理的，因为货币供应量的持续增加通常会导致通货膨胀。当比较M2货币供应量和消费者价格指数的10年增长率时，这种相关性就很明显。

For Bitcoin and gold to truly solidify their roles as stores of value, there needs to be consistent above-trend growth in monetary aggregates. However, this has not yet occurred. The dramatic increase in real money mass during the pandemic was quickly reversed by the Federal Reserve’s tightening policies, suggesting that the expected conditions for BTC to thrive as a competitive analogue to gold have not yet been met.

为了真正巩固比特币和黄金作为价值储存手段的作用，货币总量需要持续高于趋势的增长。然而，这还没有发生。疫情期间实际货币量的急剧增加很快就被美联储的紧缩政策所扭转，这表明比特币作为黄金的竞争性类似物蓬勃发展的预期条件尚未满足。

Timmer also addresses the notion of cryptocurrency as "gold 2.0," instead referring to it as "exponential gold" due to its combination of monetary properties and advanced network technology.

Timmer 还将加密货币的概念称为“黄金 2.0”，而不是将其称为“指数黄金”，因为它结合了货币属性和先进的网络技术。

The discussion that Bitcoin could overtake gold in market capitalization is not new and has been going on in the community since the cryptocurrency first became public knowledge.

关于比特币可能在市值上超越黄金的讨论并不新鲜，自从加密货币首次成为公众知识以来，这种讨论就一直在社区中进行。

Not without reason, the first encrypted transaction was a Times headline about the global financial crisis. With the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, this debate has only intensified as hundreds of millions of people can now buy the cryptocurrency in the traditional way.

首笔加密交易成为《泰晤士报》关于全球金融危机的头条新闻并非没有原因。随着现货比特币 ETF 的推出，这场争论只会愈演愈烈，因为数亿人现在可以以传统方式购买加密货币。

Currently, gold’s market capitalization stands at over $15.6 trillion, while Bitcoin’s is approximately $1.33 trillion. For the latter to match gold's market cap, it would need to grow by 11.72 times, reaching an estimated price of nearly $790,000 per BTC

目前，黄金的市值超过 15.6 万亿美元，而比特币的市值约为 1.33 万亿美元。后者要与黄金市值相匹配，需要增长 11.72 倍，达到每 BTC 近 790,000 美元的估计价格