週末暴跌後，比特幣的地緣政治對沖地位受到質疑

最近，由於地緣政治緊張局勢引發的比特幣價值下跌，引發了關於其對沖地緣政治風險有效性的爭論。儘管一些分析師認為，比特幣與黃金支持的加密貨幣的負相關性表明它不是可靠的地緣政治對沖工具，但其他人將週末的崩盤歸因於散戶和槓桿交易員的恐慌性拋售。

Bitcoin's Geopolitical Hedge Status Questioned After Weekend Plunge

週末暴跌後比特幣的地緣政治對沖地位受到質疑

Amid mounting geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin's purported role as a safe haven asset has come under scrutiny following a sharp decline in its value over the weekend. The cryptocurrency's performance during the recent Iran-Israel conflict has prompted questions about its ability to serve as a hedge against geopolitical risks.

在地緣政治緊張局勢日益加劇的情況下，比特幣作為避險資產的角色在周末價值大幅下跌後受到了密切關注。這種加密貨幣在最近的伊朗-以色列衝突中的表現引發了人們對其對沖地緣政治風險的能力的質疑。

On Saturday, Bitcoin tumbled by 7.5%, dropping from over $67,000 to around $62,000 within minutes of the news of Iran's missile and drone attacks against Israel. This decline has raised concerns among analysts, as Bitcoin has traditionally been viewed as a hedge against geopolitical instability.

週六，在伊朗對以色列發動飛彈和無人機襲擊的消息傳出後幾分鐘內，比特幣暴跌 7.5%，從 67,000 美元以上跌至 62,000 美元左右。這種下跌引起了分析師的擔憂，因為比特幣傳統上被視為對沖地緣政治不穩定的工具。

Bob Elliott, a former top executive at Bridgewater Associates, a $124 billion asset management firm, compared Bitcoin's performance to that of PAX Gold (PAXG), a gold-backed crypto token. PAXG rallied to a new all-time high of $2,855 after Iran's attack, while Bitcoin plunged.

價值 1,240 億美元的資產管理公司 Bridgewater Associates 的前高管 Bob Elliott 將比特幣的表現與黃金支持的加密代幣 PAX Gold (PAXG) 的表現進行了比較。伊朗襲擊後，PAXG 升至 2,855 美元的歷史新高，而比特幣則暴跌。

"Bitcoin may be many things, but it is not a geopolitical hedge," Elliott said in a post on X. "This weekend was another good empirical test."

埃利奧特在 X 上的一篇帖子中表示：“比特幣可能有很多用途，但它不是地緣政治對沖。這個週末是另一個很好的實證檢驗。”

Elliott noted that Bitcoin has displayed a similar performance during other geopolitical events, such as the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. While gold tends to rise in value during times of geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin has exhibited a contrasting pattern.

艾利奧特指出，比特幣在其他地緣政治事件中也表現出了類似的表現，例如 10 月 7 日哈馬斯對以色列的攻擊。雖然黃金在地緣政治不確定時期往往會升值，但比特幣卻表現出了截然不同的模式。

"Many make the case that rising geopolitical tensions are a positive for BTC prices," said Elliott, now co-founder of Unlimited. "The empirical evidence suggests otherwise. If anything, it looks to be getting more negative over time. BTC is not 'digital gold.'"

「許多人認為地緣政治緊張局勢加劇對比特幣價格有利，」現任 Unlimited 聯合創始人的艾利奧特表示。 “經驗證據表明情況並非如此。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是隨著時間的推移，它看起來會變得更加負面。比特幣不是‘數字黃金’。”

However, some analysts have disagreed with Elliott's conclusion, arguing that Bitcoin's decline over the weekend was primarily due to panic selling by retail and leveraged traders. They point out that crypto markets are often more volatile over weekends, when liquidity is lower and institutional participation is reduced.

然而，一些分析師不同意艾略特的結論，他們認為比特幣週末的下跌主要是由於散戶和槓桿交易員的恐慌性拋售造成的。他們指出，加密貨幣市場在周末往往更加波動，此時流動性較低且機構參與度減少。

One trader noted that crypto was the only risk asset trading over the weekend, and comparing it with other assets was unfair.

一位交易員指出，加密貨幣是周末唯一的風險資產交易，將其與其他資產進行比較是不公平的。

"It's not fair to use weekend panic price action (retail/leverage predominantly) when liquidity and participation is low and no other risk assets are open and accessible to go YOUUUUURS!" said trader Mazen Barbir.

“當流動性和參與度較低且沒有其他風險資產可供開放和使用時，利用周末恐慌性價格行動（主要是零售/槓桿）是不公平的！”交易員馬贊·巴比爾 (Mazen Barbir) 說。

Additionally, PAXG has low liquidity, with only $44 million in daily trading volumes. In contrast, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volumes stand at over $27 billion. This difference in liquidity could have contributed to PAXG's outperformance over the weekend.

此外，PAXG 的流動性較低，每日交易量僅 4,400 萬美元。相比之下，比特幣的 24 小時交易量超過 270 億美元。這種流動性差異可能是 PAXG 週末表現優異的原因之一。

On-chain analyst Checkmatey criticized comments like those made by Elliott, arguing that they rely on an illiquid gold token.

鏈上分析師 Checkmatey 批評了 Elliott 的言論，認為他們依賴非流動性的黃金代幣。

"Folks who posted about the price of an illiquid gold token trading higher today as a dunk on #Bitcoin are an unserious market commentator," Checkmatey said.

「那些在 #Bitcoin 上發布非流動性黃金代幣價格今天上漲的人是一個不認真的市場評論員，」Checkmatey 說。

The recent market downturn has raised questions about the future of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. While it is still too early to say definitively whether Bitcoin will continue to underperform during geopolitical tensions, the weekend's events have certainly cast doubt on its status as a geopolitical hedge.

最近的市場低迷引發了人們對比特幣作為避險資產的未來的質疑。雖然現在確定比特幣在地緣政治緊張局勢中是否會繼續表現不佳還為時過早，但周末發生的事件無疑讓人對其作為地緣政治對沖工具的地位產生了懷疑。