周末暴跌后，比特币的地缘政治对冲地位受到质疑

最近，由于地缘政治紧张局势引发的比特币价值下跌，引发了关于其对冲地缘政治风险有效性的争论。尽管一些分析师认为，比特币与黄金支持的加密货币的负相关性表明它不是可靠的地缘政治对冲工具，但其他人将周末的崩盘归因于散户和杠杆交易员的恐慌性抛售。

Bitcoin's Geopolitical Hedge Status Questioned After Weekend Plunge

周末暴跌后比特币的地缘政治对冲地位受到质疑

Amid mounting geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin's purported role as a safe haven asset has come under scrutiny following a sharp decline in its value over the weekend. The cryptocurrency's performance during the recent Iran-Israel conflict has prompted questions about its ability to serve as a hedge against geopolitical risks.

在地缘政治紧张局势日益加剧的情况下，比特币作为避险资产的角色在周末价值大幅下跌后受到了密切关注。这种加密货币在最近的伊朗-以色列冲突中的表现引发了人们对其对冲地缘政治风险的能力的质疑。

On Saturday, Bitcoin tumbled by 7.5%, dropping from over $67,000 to around $62,000 within minutes of the news of Iran's missile and drone attacks against Israel. This decline has raised concerns among analysts, as Bitcoin has traditionally been viewed as a hedge against geopolitical instability.

周六，在伊朗对以色列发动导弹和无人机袭击的消息传出后几分钟内，比特币暴跌 7.5%，从 67,000 美元以上跌至 62,000 美元左右。这种下跌引起了分析师的担忧，因为比特币传统上被视为对冲地缘政治不稳定的工具。

Bob Elliott, a former top executive at Bridgewater Associates, a $124 billion asset management firm, compared Bitcoin's performance to that of PAX Gold (PAXG), a gold-backed crypto token. PAXG rallied to a new all-time high of $2,855 after Iran's attack, while Bitcoin plunged.

价值 1240 亿美元的资产管理公司 Bridgewater Associates 的前高管鲍勃·埃利奥特 (Bob Elliott) 将比特币的表现与黄金支持的加密代币 PAX Gold (PAXG) 的表现进行了比较。伊朗袭击后，PAXG 升至 2,855 美元的历史新高，而比特币则暴跌。

"Bitcoin may be many things, but it is not a geopolitical hedge," Elliott said in a post on X. "This weekend was another good empirical test."

埃利奥特在 X 上的一篇帖子中表示：“比特币可能有很多用途，但它不是地缘政治对冲。这个周末是另一个很好的实证检验。”

Elliott noted that Bitcoin has displayed a similar performance during other geopolitical events, such as the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. While gold tends to rise in value during times of geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin has exhibited a contrasting pattern.

埃利奥特指出，比特币在其他地缘政治事件中也表现出了类似的表现，例如 10 月 7 日哈马斯对以色列的袭击。虽然黄金在地缘政治不确定时期往往会升值，但比特币却表现出了截然不同的模式。

"Many make the case that rising geopolitical tensions are a positive for BTC prices," said Elliott, now co-founder of Unlimited. "The empirical evidence suggests otherwise. If anything, it looks to be getting more negative over time. BTC is not 'digital gold.'"

“许多人认为地缘政治紧张局势加剧对比特币价格有利，”现任 Unlimited 联合创始人的埃利奥特表示。 “经验证据表明情况并非如此。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是随着时间的推移，它看起来会变得更加负面。比特币不是‘数字黄金’。”

However, some analysts have disagreed with Elliott's conclusion, arguing that Bitcoin's decline over the weekend was primarily due to panic selling by retail and leveraged traders. They point out that crypto markets are often more volatile over weekends, when liquidity is lower and institutional participation is reduced.

然而，一些分析师不同意艾略特的结论，他们认为比特币周末的下跌主要是由于散户和杠杆交易员的恐慌性抛售造成的。他们指出，加密货币市场在周末往往更加波动，此时流动性较低且机构参与减少。

One trader noted that crypto was the only risk asset trading over the weekend, and comparing it with other assets was unfair.

一位交易员指出，加密货币是周末唯一的风险资产交易，将其与其他资产进行比较是不公平的。

"It's not fair to use weekend panic price action (retail/leverage predominantly) when liquidity and participation is low and no other risk assets are open and accessible to go YOUUUUURS!" said trader Mazen Barbir.

“当流动性和参与度较低且没有其他风险资产可供开放和使用时，利用周末恐慌性价格行动（主要是零售/杠杆）是不公平的！”交易员马赞·巴比尔 (Mazen Barbir) 说道。

Additionally, PAXG has low liquidity, with only $44 million in daily trading volumes. In contrast, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volumes stand at over $27 billion. This difference in liquidity could have contributed to PAXG's outperformance over the weekend.

此外，PAXG 的流动性较低，每日交易量仅为 4400 万美元。相比之下，比特币的 24 小时交易量超过 270 亿美元。这种流动性差异可能是 PAXG 周末表现优异的原因之一。

On-chain analyst Checkmatey criticized comments like those made by Elliott, arguing that they rely on an illiquid gold token.

链上分析师 Checkmatey 批评了 Elliott 的言论，认为他们依赖非流动性的黄金代币。

"Folks who posted about the price of an illiquid gold token trading higher today as a dunk on #Bitcoin are an unserious market commentator," Checkmatey said.

“那些在 #Bitcoin 上发布非流动性黄金代币价格今天上涨的人是一个不认真的市场评论员，”Checkmatey 说。

The recent market downturn has raised questions about the future of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. While it is still too early to say definitively whether Bitcoin will continue to underperform during geopolitical tensions, the weekend's events have certainly cast doubt on its status as a geopolitical hedge.

最近的市场低迷引发了人们对比特币作为避险资产的未来的质疑。虽然现在确定比特币在地缘政治紧张局势中是否会继续表现不佳还为时过早，但周末发生的事件无疑让人对其作为地缘政治对冲工具的地位产生了怀疑。