當聯準會降息時比特幣會做什麼？

如果比特幣作為貨幣政策和美元生存能力的代表進行交易，那麼在聯準會開始降息期間，掌握這個問題和答案就非常重要。

Yesterday’s commentary answered a question from a reader about our thoughts on owning gold or gold miners during a bull steepening period. Hours after publishing the commentary, we got a similar question asking how bitcoin might do when the Fed cuts rates.

昨天的評論回答了一位讀者提出的關於我們在牛市陡峭時期持有黃金或金礦股的想法的問題。在發表評論幾小時後，我們收到了類似的問題，詢問當聯準會降息時比特幣會如何表現。

If bitcoin trades as a proxy of monetary policy and the dollar’s viability, then the question and answer are very important to grasp as the Fed embarks on a rate-cutting period. Bear in mind that we only have ten years of bitcoin data, so take the following analysis with some skepticism.

如果比特幣作為貨幣政策和美元生存能力的代表進行交易，那麼在聯準會開始降息期間，掌握這個問題和答案就非常重要。請記住，我們只有十年的比特幣數據，因此請帶著懷疑的態度進行以下分析。

We separated the graph below charting Fed Funds and Bitcoin into the three Fed policy cycles: rate cutting, easing, and doing nothing. The two blue-shaded areas show mixed results when the Fed raises rates. In 2017-2018, bitcoin rose sharply but then gave up most of its gains. More recently, bitcoin fell as the Fed raised rates. The green bar shows one experience with rate cuts that was not friendly for Bitcoin holders. Its price was nearly cut in half during the period. However, what stands out most are the yellow circles highlighting periods when the Fed was doing nothing. Bitcoin surged in the three instances.

我們將下圖將聯邦基金和比特幣分為三個聯準會政策週期：降息、寬鬆和無所作為。當聯準會升息時，兩個藍色陰影區域顯示出不同的結果。 2017-2018年，比特幣大幅上漲，但隨後回吐了大部分漲幅。最近，隨著聯準會升息，比特幣下跌。綠條顯示了對比特幣持有者不友善的降息經驗。在此期間其價格幾乎下降了一半。然而，最引人注目的是黃色圓圈，突出顯示聯準會無所作為的時期。比特幣在這三種情況下飆升。

If bitcoin is indeed a proxy for rate policy, a rate cut should be good for it. However, our limited history argues otherwise.

如果比特幣確實是利率政策的代表，那麼降息應該對其有利。然而，我們有限的歷史證明事實並非如此。

What To Watch Today

今天看什麼

Earnings

效益

Economy

經濟

Market Trading Update

市場交易動態

Yesterday, we discussed the initial test of the 100-DMA, which was held yesterday, but the 50-DMA currently provides decent overhead resistance for equities. However, Treasury bonds continue to extend their rally as anticipation for rate cuts builds and economic growth weakens. In August 2023, I discussed how I doubled down on my bond positions in anticipation of the coming bond rally despite arguments to the contrary from many mainstream analysts.

昨天，我們討論了昨天舉行的 100 日均線的初步測試，但 50 日均線目前為股市提供了不錯的上方阻力。然而，隨著降息預期增強和經濟成長減弱，國債持續延續漲勢。 2023 年 8 月，我討論瞭如何在預期即將到來的債券反彈的情況下加倍持有債券頭寸，儘管許多主流分析師提出了相反的觀點。

While our thesis was proven correct, bonds are now extremely overbought in the near term, with declining volume and deviating above the 50-DMA. For investors looking to add Treasury bond exposure at current levels, such will likely be painful as yields should retrace somewhat from current levels towards 4%. What causes such a retracement is unknown, but traders who were previously very short on Treasury bonds are now very long. Such positioning shifts often precede short-term retracements to previous support levels.

雖然我們的論點被證明是正確的，但債券目前在短期內極度超買，成交量下降並偏離 50 日均線上方。對於希望在當前水準增加國債敞口的投資者來說，這可能會很痛苦，因為收益率可能會從當前水準回落至 4%。造成這種回撤的原因尚不清楚，但之前非常做空國債的交易者現在做多了。這種定位轉變通常發生在短期回檔至先前支撐位之前。

Using the 20-Year Duration Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices, I will become much more interested in increasing current exposure between 95 and 96. While prices could increase in the near term, waiting for an eventual correction to build positions will likely yield better long-term results.

使用 20 年期公債 ETF (TLT) 作為債券價格的代理，我將對增加 95 至 96 之間的當前敞口變得更加感興趣。可能會產生更好的長期結果。

NFIB Disappoints Again

NFIB再次令人失望

The NFIB – Small Business Optimism Index continues to show small business owners are under a lot of strain and have a dim outlook on the future. The optimism index fell to 91.2 from 93.6. Hiring plans decreased. Only 4% of those surveyed said it was a good time to expand. In addition, the uncertainty Index, at 92, is the highest since October 2020. Moreover, positive profit trends are down a seasonally adjusted net -37%, -7% lower than last month, and now lower than the early months of the pandemic, as shown below.

NFIB – 小型企業樂觀指數持續顯示，小型企業主面臨巨大壓力，對未來前景黯淡。樂觀指數從93.6降至91.2。招聘計劃減少。只有 4% 的受訪者表示現在是擴張的好時機。此外，不確定性指數為92，為2020年10月以來最高。月，如下圖所示。

So, the question is, what might help improve the outlook of small business owners and ultimately boost their businesses? The election is clearly hampering the outlook for many. The election in November will likely improve the outlook for some and worsen it for others. That said, policies by the new president to help small businesses could improve the outlook for business owners of both political parties.

那麼，問題是，什麼可以幫助改善小企業主的前景並最終促進他們的業務發展？這次選舉顯然阻礙了許多人的前景。 11 月的選舉可能會改善一些人的前景，而其他人的前景則惡化。也就是說，新總統幫助小企業的政策可以改善兩黨企業主的前景。

The Fed may have the most sway regarding profit concerns. Small businesses are typically heavy users of debt. Furthermore, their interest rates tend to be much higher than those of larger companies. Therefore, lower interest rates will reduce their interest expenses and potentially lift their pessimism.

對於利潤擔憂，聯準會可能擁有最大的影響力。小型企業通常是債務的重度使用者。此外，它們的利率往往比大公司高得多。因此，較低的利率將減少他們的利息支出，並可能解除他們的悲觀情緒。

S&P 500 – A Bullish and Bearish Analysis

標普 500 指數 – 看漲與看跌分析

The S&P 500's technical landscape presents both opportunities and challenges. Bullish indicators such as support at the 200-day moving average and oversold RSI levels suggest a “buy the dip” opportunity could be on the horizon. However, bearish patterns like lower highs and weakening volume during rallies warn of further downside risks.

標準普爾 500 指數的技術格局既帶來了機遇，也帶來了挑戰。 200 日移動平均線的支撐和超賣 RSI 水平等看漲指標表明「逢低買入」機會可能即將出現。然而，高點降低和反彈期間成交量減弱等看跌模式警告進一步的下行風險。

We don’t know what will happen next, nor does anyone else. Therefore, we suggest a regular diet of risk management and portfolio rebalancing to navigate periods of elevated uncertainty.

我們不知道接下來會發生什麼，其他人也不知道。因此，我們建議定期進行風險管理和投資組合再平衡，以應對不確定性升高的時期。

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閱讀更多…

Tweet of the Day

今日推文

“Want to achieve better long-term success in managing your portfolio? Here are our 15-trading rules for managing market risks.”

「想要在管理投資組合方面取得更好的長期成功嗎？這是我們管理市場風險的 15 條交易規則。

Please subscribe to the daily commentary to receive these updates every morning before the opening bell.

請訂閱每日評論，以便每天早上在開盤前收到這些更新。

If you found this blog useful, please send it to someone else, share it on social media, or contact us to set up a meeting.

如果您發現此部落格有用，請將其發送給其他人、在社交媒體上分享或聯絡我們安排會議。

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