当美联储降息时比特币会做什么？

如果比特币作为货币政策和美元生存能力的代表进行交易，那么在美联储开始降息期间，掌握这个问题和答案就非常重要。

Yesterday’s commentary answered a question from a reader about our thoughts on owning gold or gold miners during a bull steepening period. Hours after publishing the commentary, we got a similar question asking how bitcoin might do when the Fed cuts rates.

昨天的评论回答了一位读者提出的关于我们在牛市陡峭时期持有黄金或金矿股的想法的问题。发表评论几小时后，我们收到了类似的问题，询问当美联储降息时比特币会如何表现。

If bitcoin trades as a proxy of monetary policy and the dollar’s viability, then the question and answer are very important to grasp as the Fed embarks on a rate-cutting period. Bear in mind that we only have ten years of bitcoin data, so take the following analysis with some skepticism.

如果比特币作为货币政策和美元生存能力的代表进行交易，那么在美联储开始降息期间，掌握这个问题和答案就非常重要。请记住，我们只有十年的比特币数据，因此请带着怀疑的态度进行以下分析。

We separated the graph below charting Fed Funds and Bitcoin into the three Fed policy cycles: rate cutting, easing, and doing nothing. The two blue-shaded areas show mixed results when the Fed raises rates. In 2017-2018, bitcoin rose sharply but then gave up most of its gains. More recently, bitcoin fell as the Fed raised rates. The green bar shows one experience with rate cuts that was not friendly for Bitcoin holders. Its price was nearly cut in half during the period. However, what stands out most are the yellow circles highlighting periods when the Fed was doing nothing. Bitcoin surged in the three instances.

我们将下图将联邦基金和比特币分为三个美联储政策周期：降息、宽松和无所作为。当美联储加息时，两个蓝色阴影区域显示出不同的结果。 2017-2018年，比特币大幅上涨，但随后回吐了大部分涨幅。最近，随着美联储加息，比特币下跌。绿条显示了一种对比特币持有者不友好的降息经历。在此期间其价格几乎下降了一半。然而，最引人注目的是黄色圆圈，突出显示美联储无所作为的时期。比特币在这三种情况下飙升。

If bitcoin is indeed a proxy for rate policy, a rate cut should be good for it. However, our limited history argues otherwise.

如果比特币确实是利率政策的代表，那么降息应该对其有利。然而，我们有限的历史却证明事实并非如此。

What To Watch Today

今天看什么

Earnings

收益

Economy

经济

Market Trading Update

市场交易动态

Yesterday, we discussed the initial test of the 100-DMA, which was held yesterday, but the 50-DMA currently provides decent overhead resistance for equities. However, Treasury bonds continue to extend their rally as anticipation for rate cuts builds and economic growth weakens. In August 2023, I discussed how I doubled down on my bond positions in anticipation of the coming bond rally despite arguments to the contrary from many mainstream analysts.

昨天，我们讨论了昨天举行的 100 日均线的初步测试，但 50 日均线目前为股市提供了不错的上方阻力。然而，随着降息预期增强和经济增长减弱，国债继续延续涨势。 2023 年 8 月，我讨论了如何在预期即将到来的债券反弹的情况下加倍持有债券头寸，尽管许多主流分析师提出了相反的观点。

While our thesis was proven correct, bonds are now extremely overbought in the near term, with declining volume and deviating above the 50-DMA. For investors looking to add Treasury bond exposure at current levels, such will likely be painful as yields should retrace somewhat from current levels towards 4%. What causes such a retracement is unknown, but traders who were previously very short on Treasury bonds are now very long. Such positioning shifts often precede short-term retracements to previous support levels.

虽然我们的论点被证明是正确的，但债券目前在短期内极度超买，成交量下降并偏离 50 日均线上方。对于希望在当前水平增加国债敞口的投资者来说，这可能会很痛苦，因为收益率可能会从当前水平回落至 4%。造成这种回撤的原因尚不清楚，但之前非常做空国债的交易者现在做多了。这种定位转变通常发生在短期回撤至先前支撑位之前。

Using the 20-Year Duration Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices, I will become much more interested in increasing current exposure between 95 and 96. While prices could increase in the near term, waiting for an eventual correction to build positions will likely yield better long-term results.

使用 20 年期国债 ETF (TLT) 作为债券价格的代理，我将对增加 95 至 96 之间的当前敞口变得更加感兴趣。虽然价格可能在短期内上涨，但等待最终的调整建立的立场可能会产生更好的长期结果。

NFIB Disappoints Again

NFIB再次令人失望

The NFIB – Small Business Optimism Index continues to show small business owners are under a lot of strain and have a dim outlook on the future. The optimism index fell to 91.2 from 93.6. Hiring plans decreased. Only 4% of those surveyed said it was a good time to expand. In addition, the uncertainty Index, at 92, is the highest since October 2020. Moreover, positive profit trends are down a seasonally adjusted net -37%, -7% lower than last month, and now lower than the early months of the pandemic, as shown below.

NFIB – 小型企业乐观指数继续显示，小型企业主面临巨大压力，对未来前景黯淡。乐观指数从93.6降至91.2。招聘计划减少。只有 4% 的受访者表示现在是扩张的好时机。此外，不确定性指数为92，为2020年10月以来最高。此外，正利润趋势经季节调整后净额下降-37%，比上个月低-7%，目前低于疫情爆发前几个月，如下图所示。

So, the question is, what might help improve the outlook of small business owners and ultimately boost their businesses? The election is clearly hampering the outlook for many. The election in November will likely improve the outlook for some and worsen it for others. That said, policies by the new president to help small businesses could improve the outlook for business owners of both political parties.

那么，问题是，什么可以帮助改善小企业主的前景并最终促进他们的业务发展？这次选举显然阻碍了许多人的前景。 11 月的选举可能会改善一些人的前景，而另一些人的前景则恶化。也就是说，新总统帮助小企业的政策可以改善两党企业主的前景。

The Fed may have the most sway regarding profit concerns. Small businesses are typically heavy users of debt. Furthermore, their interest rates tend to be much higher than those of larger companies. Therefore, lower interest rates will reduce their interest expenses and potentially lift their pessimism.

对于利润担忧，美联储可能拥有最大的影响力。小企业通常是债务的重度使用者。此外，它们的利率往往比大公司高得多。因此，较低的利率将减少他们的利息支出，并可能解除他们的悲观情绪。

S&P 500 – A Bullish and Bearish Analysis

标准普尔 500 指数 – 看涨和看跌分析

The S&P 500's technical landscape presents both opportunities and challenges. Bullish indicators such as support at the 200-day moving average and oversold RSI levels suggest a “buy the dip” opportunity could be on the horizon. However, bearish patterns like lower highs and weakening volume during rallies warn of further downside risks.

标准普尔 500 指数的技术格局既带来了机遇，也带来了挑战。 200 日移动平均线的支撑和超卖 RSI 水平等看涨指标表明“逢低买入”机会可能即将出现。然而，高点降低和反弹期间成交量减弱等看跌模式警告进一步的下行风险。

We don’t know what will happen next, nor does anyone else. Therefore, we suggest a regular diet of risk management and portfolio rebalancing to navigate periods of elevated uncertainty.

我们不知道接下来会发生什么，其他人也不知道。因此，我们建议定期进行风险管理和投资组合再平衡，以应对不确定性升高的时期。

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“想要在管理投资组合方面取得更好的长期成功吗？这是我们管理市场风险的 15 条交易规则。”

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请订阅每日评论，以便每天早上在开盘前收到这些更新。

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如果您发现此博客有用，请将其发送给其他人、在社交媒体上分享或联系我们安排会议。

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