比特幣（BTC）是最終的不對稱機會：發現比特幣價格波動的深層邏輯

昨天，比特幣的價格打破了100,000美元的大關，點燃了市場的熱情，社交媒體充滿了“牛市又回來”的歡呼。

Author: Daii

作者：daii

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

編譯者：白話區塊鏈

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin broke through the $110,000 mark, igniting the enthusiasm of the market, and social media was full of cheers of "the bull market is back". However, for those investors who hesitated at $76,000 and missed the opportunity to enter the market, this moment is more like an inner self-questioning: Am I late again? Should I buy decisively during the pullback? Will there be opportunities in the future?

昨天，比特幣的價格打破了110,000美元的大關，點燃了市場的熱情，社交媒體充滿了“牛市回來”的歡呼。但是，對於那些以76,000美元猶豫並錯過了進入市場的投資者來說，這一刻更像是一個內在的自我詢問：我又遲到了嗎？我應該在回調期間果斷地購買嗎？將來會有機會嗎？

This leads to the core of our discussion: Is there really a "value investment" perspective in an asset like Bitcoin that is known for its extreme volatility? Can this strategy, which seems to contradict its "high risk, high volatility" characteristics, capture "asymmetric" opportunities in this turbulent game?

這導致了我們討論的核心：像比特幣這樣的資產中是否真的有“價值投資”的觀點，以其極端波動而聞名？這種策略似乎可以與該動盪遊戲中的“高風險，高波動”特徵，捕獲“不對稱”機會矛盾？

In the investment world, asymmetry refers to situations where potential gains far outweigh potential losses, or vice versa. At first glance, this doesn’t seem to be a characteristic of Bitcoin. After all, most people’s impression of Bitcoin is that it’s either a quick win or a loss.

在投資界，不對稱是指潛在增加遠遠超過潛在損失的情況，反之亦然。乍一看，這似乎不是比特幣的特徵。畢竟，大多數人對比特幣的印像是，這是快速的勝利，要么是損失。

However, behind this polarized perception lies an overlooked possibility: during Bitcoin’s periodic deep declines, a value investing approach could create an extremely attractive risk-reward structure.

但是，這種兩極分化的感知背後是一種被忽視的可能性：在比特幣的周期性下降期間，價值投資方法可能會產生極具吸引力的風險回報結構。

Looking back at the history of Bitcoin, it has plunged 80% or even 90% from its highs many times. At these moments, the market was shrouded in panic and despair, and the capitulation selling made the price seem to return to the starting point. But for investors who deeply understand the long-term logic of Bitcoin, this is a classic "asymmetric" opportunity - risking limited losses in exchange for potential huge returns.

回顧比特幣的歷史，它已經從高點降低了80％甚至90％。在這些時刻，市場籠罩著恐慌和絕望，銷售的投降使價格似乎恢復到起點。但是，對於深深了解比特幣長期邏輯的投資者來說，這是一個經典的“不對稱”機會 - 冒著有限損失的風險，以換取潛在的巨額回報。

Opportunities like these don’t come around often. They test investors’ cognitive abilities, emotional control, and long-term convictions. This raises a more fundamental question: Do we have reason to believe that Bitcoin truly has “intrinsic value”? If so, how can we quantify and understand it, and develop investment strategies accordingly?

這樣的機會並不經常出現。他們測試了投資者的認知能力，情緒控制和長期信念。這提出了一個更基本的問題：我們是否有理由相信比特幣確實具有“內在價值”？如果是這樣，我們如何量化和理解它，並相應地制定投資策略？

In the following content, we will embark on this journey of exploration: revealing the deep logic behind Bitcoin price fluctuations, clarifying the shining points of asymmetry when "blood flows", and thinking about how the principles of value investment can be reborn in the era of decentralization.

在以下內容中，我們將啟動這一探索旅程：揭示比特幣價格波動背後的深層邏輯，闡明當“血液流動”時，不對稱的閃亮點，並考慮如何在分散時代的時代重生價值投資的原則。

But first, you need to understand that asymmetric opportunities are never scarce in Bitcoin investing; in fact, they are abundant.

但是首先，您需要了解，比特幣投資中的不對稱機會永遠不會稀少。實際上，它們很豐富。

Why does Bitcoin have so many asymmetric opportunities?

為什麼比特幣有這麼多不對稱的機會？

If you scroll through Twitter today, you’ll see overwhelming celebration of Bitcoin’s bull run. As the price breaks $110,000, many people on social media are declaring that the market always belongs to the prophets and the lucky ones.

如果您今天滾動瀏覽Twitter，您會看到對比特幣公牛奔跑的壓倒性慶祝活動。隨著價格下跌110,000美元，社交媒體上的許多人宣布市場始終屬於先知和幸運的人。

But if you look back, you will find that the invitation to this feast was actually sent out at the most desperate moment of the market; it’s just that many people lacked the courage to open it.

但是，如果您回頭看，您會發現這次盛宴的邀請實際上是在市場上最絕望的時刻發出的。只是許多人缺乏勇氣打開它。

1.1 Historical asymmetric opportunities

1.1歷史不對稱機會

The growth of Bitcoin has never been a straight upward curve. Its historical script is intertwined with extreme panic and irrational enthusiasm. Behind every deep decline, there are extremely attractive "asymmetric opportunities" - the maximum loss you bear is limited, and the return you get may be exponential.

比特幣的增長從來都不是直接向上的曲線。它的歷史腳本與極端的恐慌和非理性的熱情交織在一起。在每一個深度下降的背後，都有極具吸引力的“不對稱機會” - 您承受的最大損失是有限的，而您獲得的回報可能是指數級的。

Let us travel through time and space and speak with data.

讓我們在時間和空間中旅行，並與數據交談。

2011: -94%, from $33 to $2

2011：-94％，從$ 33到$ 2

This was the first time that Bitcoin became "widely known", and the price soared from a few dollars to $33 in half a year. But soon, the crash followed. The price of Bitcoin plummeted to $2, a drop of 94%.

這是比特幣第一次“眾所周知”，價格從幾美元飆升至33美元。但是很快，墜機事件隨之而來。比特幣的價格下降至2美元，下降了94％。

Imagine the desperation at the time: major geek forums were deserted, developers fled, and even core Bitcoin contributors expressed doubts about the project's prospects on the forums.

想像一下當時的絕望：主要極客論壇被拋棄了，開發商逃離了，甚至比特幣貢獻者都對該項目在論壇上的前景表示懷疑。

But if you took a gamble and invested $1,000 at the time, when the price of Bitcoin exceeded $10,000 many years later, your holdings would be worth $5 million.

但是，如果您當時進行了賭博並投資了1,000美元，那麼多年後比特幣的價格超過10,000美元，您的股份將價值500萬美元。

2013-2015: -86%, Mt. Gox collapse

2013-2015：-86％，山頂倒塌

At the end of 2013, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $1,000 for the first time, attracting global attention. But the good times did not last long. In early 2014, Mt.Gox, the world's largest Bitcoin trading platform, declared bankruptcy, and 850,000 Bitcoins disappeared from the blockchain.

在2013年底，比特幣的價格首次超過1,000美元，引起了全球關注。但是美好的時光並沒有持續很長時間。 2014年初，世界上最大的比特幣交易平台宣布破產，850,000比特幣從區塊鏈中消失了。

Overnight, the media was unanimous: "Bitcoin is over." CNBC, BBC and The New York Times all reported the Mt. Gox scandal on their front pages. The price of Bitcoin fell from $1,160 to $150, a drop of more than 86%.

一夜之間，媒體一致：“比特幣結束了。” CNBC，BBC和《紐約時報》都報告了前頁面上的Gox醜聞。比特幣的價格從1,160美元下降到150美元，下降了86％以上。

But what happened next? By the end of 2017, the same Bitcoin

但是接下來發生了什麼？到2017年底，相同的比特幣