比特币（BTC）是最终的不对称机会：发现比特币价格波动的深层逻辑

昨天，比特币的价格打破了100,000美元的大关，点燃了市场的热情，社交媒体充满了“牛市又回来”的欢呼。

Author: Daii

作者：daii

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

编译者：白话区块链

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin broke through the $110,000 mark, igniting the enthusiasm of the market, and social media was full of cheers of "the bull market is back". However, for those investors who hesitated at $76,000 and missed the opportunity to enter the market, this moment is more like an inner self-questioning: Am I late again? Should I buy decisively during the pullback? Will there be opportunities in the future?

昨天，比特币的价格打破了110,000美元的大关，点燃了市场的热情，社交媒体充满了“牛市回来”的欢呼。但是，对于那些以76,000美元犹豫并错过了进入市场的投资者来说，这一刻更像是一个内在的自我询问：我又迟到了吗？我应该在回调期间果断地购买吗？将来会有机会吗？

This leads to the core of our discussion: Is there really a "value investment" perspective in an asset like Bitcoin that is known for its extreme volatility? Can this strategy, which seems to contradict its "high risk, high volatility" characteristics, capture "asymmetric" opportunities in this turbulent game?

这导致了我们讨论的核心：像比特币这样的资产中是否真的有“价值投资”的观点，以其极端波动而闻名？这种策略似乎可以与该动荡游戏中的“高风险，高波动”特征，捕获“不对称”机会矛盾？

In the investment world, asymmetry refers to situations where potential gains far outweigh potential losses, or vice versa. At first glance, this doesn’t seem to be a characteristic of Bitcoin. After all, most people’s impression of Bitcoin is that it’s either a quick win or a loss.

在投资界，不对称是指潜在增加远远超过潜在损失的情况，反之亦然。乍一看，这似乎不是比特币的特征。毕竟，大多数人对比特币的印象是，这是快速的胜利，要么是损失。

However, behind this polarized perception lies an overlooked possibility: during Bitcoin’s periodic deep declines, a value investing approach could create an extremely attractive risk-reward structure.

但是，这种两极分化的感知背后是一种被忽视的可能性：在比特币的周期性下降期间，价值投资方法可能会产生极具吸引力的风险回报结构。

Looking back at the history of Bitcoin, it has plunged 80% or even 90% from its highs many times. At these moments, the market was shrouded in panic and despair, and the capitulation selling made the price seem to return to the starting point. But for investors who deeply understand the long-term logic of Bitcoin, this is a classic "asymmetric" opportunity - risking limited losses in exchange for potential huge returns.

回顾比特币的历史，它已经从高点降低了80％甚至90％。在这些时刻，市场笼罩着恐慌和绝望，销售的投降使价格似乎恢复到起点。但是，对于深深了解比特币长期逻辑的投资者来说，这是一个经典的“不对称”机会 - 冒着有限损失的风险，以换取潜在的巨额回报。

Opportunities like these don’t come around often. They test investors’ cognitive abilities, emotional control, and long-term convictions. This raises a more fundamental question: Do we have reason to believe that Bitcoin truly has “intrinsic value”? If so, how can we quantify and understand it, and develop investment strategies accordingly?

这样的机会并不经常出现。他们测试了投资者的认知能力，情绪控制和长期信念。这提出了一个更基本的问题：我们是否有理由相信比特币确实具有“内在价值”？如果是这样，我们如何量化和理解它，并相应地制定投资策略？

In the following content, we will embark on this journey of exploration: revealing the deep logic behind Bitcoin price fluctuations, clarifying the shining points of asymmetry when "blood flows", and thinking about how the principles of value investment can be reborn in the era of decentralization.

在以下内容中，我们将启动这一探索旅程：揭示比特币价格波动背后的深层逻辑，阐明当“血液流动”时，不对称的闪亮点，并考虑如何在分散时代的时代重生价值投资的原则。

But first, you need to understand that asymmetric opportunities are never scarce in Bitcoin investing; in fact, they are abundant.

但是首先，您需要了解，比特币投资中的不对称机会永远不会稀少。实际上，它们很丰富。

Why does Bitcoin have so many asymmetric opportunities?

为什么比特币有这么多不对称的机会？

If you scroll through Twitter today, you’ll see overwhelming celebration of Bitcoin’s bull run. As the price breaks $110,000, many people on social media are declaring that the market always belongs to the prophets and the lucky ones.

如果您今天滚动浏览Twitter，您会看到对比特币公牛奔跑的压倒性庆祝活动。随着价格下跌110,000美元，社交媒体上的许多人宣布市场始终属于先知和幸运的人。

But if you look back, you will find that the invitation to this feast was actually sent out at the most desperate moment of the market; it’s just that many people lacked the courage to open it.

但是，如果您回头看，您会发现这次盛宴的邀请实际上是在市场上最绝望的时刻发出的。只是许多人缺乏勇气打开它。

1.1 Historical asymmetric opportunities

1.1历史不对称机会

The growth of Bitcoin has never been a straight upward curve. Its historical script is intertwined with extreme panic and irrational enthusiasm. Behind every deep decline, there are extremely attractive "asymmetric opportunities" - the maximum loss you bear is limited, and the return you get may be exponential.

比特币的增长从来都不是直接向上的曲线。它的历史脚本与极端的恐慌和非理性的热情交织在一起。在每一个深度下降的背后，都有极具吸引力的“不对称机会” - 您承受的最大损失是有限的，而您获得的回报可能是指数级的。

Let us travel through time and space and speak with data.

让我们在时间和空间中旅行，并与数据交谈。

2011: -94%, from $33 to $2

2011：-94％，从$ 33到$ 2

This was the first time that Bitcoin became "widely known", and the price soared from a few dollars to $33 in half a year. But soon, the crash followed. The price of Bitcoin plummeted to $2, a drop of 94%.

这是比特币第一次“众所周知”，价格从几美元飙升至33美元。但是很快，坠机事件随之而来。比特币的价格下降至2美元，下降了94％。

Imagine the desperation at the time: major geek forums were deserted, developers fled, and even core Bitcoin contributors expressed doubts about the project's prospects on the forums.

想象一下当时的绝望：主要极客论坛被抛弃了，开发商逃离了，甚至比特币贡献者都对该项目在论坛上的前景表示怀疑。

But if you took a gamble and invested $1,000 at the time, when the price of Bitcoin exceeded $10,000 many years later, your holdings would be worth $5 million.

但是，如果您当时进行了赌博并投资了1,000美元，那么多年后比特币的价格超过10,000美元，您的股份将价值500万美元。

2013-2015: -86%, Mt. Gox collapse

2013-2015：-86％，山顶倒塌

At the end of 2013, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $1,000 for the first time, attracting global attention. But the good times did not last long. In early 2014, Mt.Gox, the world's largest Bitcoin trading platform, declared bankruptcy, and 850,000 Bitcoins disappeared from the blockchain.

在2013年底，比特币的价格首次超过1,000美元，引起了全球关注。但是美好的时光并没有持续很长时间。 2014年初，世界上最大的比特币交易平台宣布破产，850,000比特币从区块链中消失了。

Overnight, the media was unanimous: "Bitcoin is over." CNBC, BBC and The New York Times all reported the Mt. Gox scandal on their front pages. The price of Bitcoin fell from $1,160 to $150, a drop of more than 86%.

一夜之间，媒体一致：“比特币结束了。” CNBC，BBC和《纽约时报》都报告了前页面上的Gox丑闻。比特币的价格从1,160美元下降到150美元，下降了86％以上。

But what happened next? By the end of 2017, the same Bitcoin

但是接下来发生了什么？到2017年底，相同的比特币