比特幣（BTC）不再是安全的資產，很少有人稱其為今天

幾年前，加密貨幣社區中的許多人都將比特幣描述為“避風港”的資產。今天稱之為更少。

Several years back, many in the crypto community described Bitcoin (BTC) as a “safe-haven” asset. Fewer are calling it that today.

幾年前，加密貨幣社區中的許多人將比特幣（BTC）描述為“避風港”資產。今天稱之為更少。

A safe-haven asset maintains or increases in value in times of economic stress. It can be a government bond, a currency like the US dollar, a commodity like gold, or even a blue-chip stock.

在經濟壓力時期，安全資產的價值保持或增加。它可以是政府債券，像美元這樣的貨幣，像黃金這樣的商品，甚至是藍籌股。

A spreading global tariff war set off by the United States, as well as troubling economic reports, have sent equity markets tumbling, and Bitcoin too — which wasn’t supposed to happen with a “risk off” asset.

美國發動的全球關稅戰爭以及令人不安的經濟報告已經使股票市場和比特幣也散發出來，這也不應該在“風險降低”資產時發生。

Bitcoin has suffered compared with gold, too. “While gold prices are up +10%, Bitcoin is down -10% since January 1st,” noted the Kobeissi Letter on March 3. “Crypto is no longer viewed as a safe haven play.” (Bitcoin dropped even further last week.)

比特幣也與黃金相比遭受了痛苦。 “雖然黃金價格上漲 +10％，但比特幣自1月1日以來下跌-10％，” 3月3日的Kobeissi信中指出，“加密貨幣不再被視為避風港遊戲。” （上週比特幣進一步下降。）

But some market observers are saying that this wasn’t really unexpected.

但是一些市場觀察家說，這並不是真正出乎意料的。

Bitcoin (white) and gold (yellow) price chart from Dec. 1 to March 13.

比特幣（白色）和黃金（黃色）價格圖表從12月1日至3月13日。

Was Bitcoin ever a safe haven?

比特幣是避風港嗎？

“I have never thought of BTC as a ‘safe haven,’” Paul Schatz, founder and president of Heritage Capital, a financial advisory firm, told Cointelegraph. “The magnitude of the moves in BTC are just too great to be put in the haven category although I do believe investors can and should have an allocation to the asset class in general.”

“我從來沒有想過BTC是'避風港'，”金融諮詢公司Heritage Capital的創始人兼總裁Paul Schatz告訴Cointelegraph。 “ BTC中的舉動的幅度太大了，儘管我確實相信投資者可以並且應該對資產類別進行一般的分配。”

“Bitcoin is still a speculative instrument for me, not a safe haven. A safe haven investment like gold has an intrinsic value that will never be zero. Bitcoin can go down 80% in major corrections. I wouldn’t expect that from gold.”

“比特幣仍然是我的投機工具，而不是避風港。像黃金這樣的避風港投資的內在價值永遠不會為零。比特幣可以在重大更正中下降80％。我不會想到黃金。”

Crypto, including Bitcoin, “has never really been a ‘safe haven play’ in my opinion,” Buvaneshwaran Venugopal, assistant professor in the department of finance at the University of Central Florida, told Cointelegraph.

包括比特幣在內的加密貨幣“我認為從來沒有真正成為“避風港”的遊戲，”中央佛羅里達大學財政系助理教授Buvaneshwaran Venugopal告訴Cointelegraph。

But things aren’t always as clear as they first appear, especially when it comes to cryptocurrencies.

但是事情並不總是像最初出現的那樣清楚，尤其是在加密貨幣方面。

One could argue that there are different kinds of safe havens: one for geopolitical events like wars, pandemics, and economic recessions, and another for strictly financial events like bank collapses or a weakening dollar, for instance.

有人可能會說，有不同種類的避風港：一個用於戰爭，大流行和經濟衰退等地緣政治事件，另一個用於嚴格的金融事件，例如銀行倒塌或弱美元。

The perception of Bitcoin may be changing. Its inclusion in exchange-traded funds issued by major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity in 2024 widened its ownership base, but it may also have changed its “narrative.”

對比特幣的看法可能正在改變。它包含在2024年貝萊德（Blackrock）和富達（Fidelity）等主要資產經理頒發的交易所貿易資金中，擴大了其所有權基礎，但它也可能改變了其“敘述”。

It is now more widely seen as a speculative or “risk on” asset like a technology stock.

現在，它被更廣泛地視為像技術股票一樣的投機性或“風險”資產。

“Bitcoin, and crypto as a whole, have become highly correlated with risky assets and they often move inversely to safe-haven assets, like gold,” Adam Kobeissi, editor-in-chief of the Kobeissi Letter, told Cointelegraph.

“比特幣和整個加密貨幣已經與風險的資產高度相關，它們通常會成交與避風險資產，例如黃金，” Kobeissi Letter主編Adam Kobeissi告訴Cointelegraph。

There’s a lot of uncertainty where BTC is heading, amid “more institutional involvement and leverage,” and there’s also been a “narrative shift from Bitcoin being viewed as ‘digital gold’ to a more speculative asset.”

在“更多的機構參與和槓桿作用”中，BTC的前進方面存在很多不確定性，而且“從被視為'數字黃金'到更具投機性的資產，也存在著一種敘事的轉變。”

One might think that its acceptance by traditional finance giants like BlackRock and Fidelity would make Bitcoin’s future more secure, which would boost the safe haven narrative — but that’s not necessarily the case, according to Venugopal:

人們可能會認為，貝萊德（Blackrock）和富達（Fidelity）等傳統金融巨頭的接受將使比特幣的未來更加安全，這將提高避風港的敘述 - 但不一定是這種情況。

It will be more subject to the usual trading and draw-down strategies that institutional investors use, Venugopal continued. “If anything, BTC is now more correlated to risky assets in the market.”

Venugopal繼續說，這將更受機構投資者使用的通常的交易和降低策略的約束。 “如果有的話，BTC現在與市場上的風險資產更加相關。”

Bitcoin’s dual nature

比特幣的雙重性質

Few deny that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still subject to big price swings, further propelled recently by growing retail adoption of crypto, particularly from the memecoin craze, “one of the largest crypto-onboarding events in history.” But perhaps that is the wrong thing to focus on.

很少有人否認比特幣和其他加密貨幣仍在遭受巨大的價格波動，最近進一步推動了零售的加密貨幣，尤其是從歷史上最大的加密貨幣活動之一的Memecoin熱潮中。”但這也許是錯誤的事情。

“Safe havens are always longer-term assets, which means that short-term volatility is not a factor in that characteristic,” Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, told Cointelegraph.

“避風港始終是長期資產，這意味著短期波動不是該特徵的因素，”加密貨幣的作者諾埃爾·阿切森（Noelle Acheson）告訴Cointelegraph。

The big question is whether BTC can hold its value longer-term against fiat currencies, and it’s been able to do that. “The numbers bear out its validity – on just about any four-year timeframe, BTC has outperformed gold and US equities.”

最大的問題是BTC是否可以長期對法定貨幣的價值持有其價值，並且能夠做到這一點。 “這些數字具有其有效性 - 幾乎在任何四年的時間範圍內，BTC都表現優於黃金和美國股票。”

Another possibility is that Bitcoin could be a safe haven against some happenings but not others.

另一種可能性是，比特幣可能是針對某些事件的避風港，而不是其他情況。

“I see Bitcoin as a hedge against issues in TradFi,” like the downturn that followed the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank two years ago, and “US Treasury risks,” Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered told Cointelegraph. But for some geopolitical events, Bitcoin might still trade as a risk asset, he said.

“我認為比特幣是對Tradfi問題的對沖，就像兩年前矽谷銀行和簽名銀行崩潰之後的低迷一樣，以及“美國財政風險”，標準憲章的數字資產研究負責人Geoff Kendrick告訴Cointelegraph。他說，但是對於某些地緣政治事件，比特幣仍可能作為風險資產進行交易。

Gold can serve as a hedge against geopolitical issues, like trade wars, while both Bitcoin and gold are hedges against inflation. “So both are useful hedges in a portfolio,” Kendrick added.

黃金可以作為對貿易戰爭等地緣政治問題的對沖，而比特幣和黃金都是反對通貨膨脹的對沖。肯德里克補充說：“因此，兩者都是投資組合中有用的樹籬。”

Others, including Ark Investment’

其他，包括方舟投資”