比特币（BTC）不再是安全的资产，很少有人称其为今天

几年前，加密货币社区中的许多人都将比特币描述为“避风港”的资产。今天称之为更少。

Several years back, many in the crypto community described Bitcoin (BTC) as a “safe-haven” asset. Fewer are calling it that today.

几年前，加密货币社区中的许多人将比特币（BTC）描述为“避风港”资产。今天称之为更少。

A safe-haven asset maintains or increases in value in times of economic stress. It can be a government bond, a currency like the US dollar, a commodity like gold, or even a blue-chip stock.

在经济压力时期，安全资产的价值保持或增加。它可以是政府债券，像美元这样的货币，像黄金这样的商品，甚至是蓝筹股。

A spreading global tariff war set off by the United States, as well as troubling economic reports, have sent equity markets tumbling, and Bitcoin too — which wasn’t supposed to happen with a “risk off” asset.

美国发动的全球关税战争以及令人不安的经济报告已经使股票市场和比特币也散发出来，这也不应该在“风险降低”资产时发生。

Bitcoin has suffered compared with gold, too. “While gold prices are up +10%, Bitcoin is down -10% since January 1st,” noted the Kobeissi Letter on March 3. “Crypto is no longer viewed as a safe haven play.” (Bitcoin dropped even further last week.)

比特币也与黄金相比遭受了痛苦。 “虽然黄金价格上涨 +10％，但比特币自1月1日以来下跌-10％，” 3月3日的Kobeissi信中指出，“加密货币不再被视为避风港游戏。” （上周比特币进一步下降。）

But some market observers are saying that this wasn’t really unexpected.

但是一些市场观察家说，这并不是真正出乎意料的。

Bitcoin (white) and gold (yellow) price chart from Dec. 1 to March 13.

比特币（白色）和黄金（黄色）价格图表从12月1日至3月13日。

Was Bitcoin ever a safe haven?

比特币是避风港吗？

“I have never thought of BTC as a ‘safe haven,’” Paul Schatz, founder and president of Heritage Capital, a financial advisory firm, told Cointelegraph. “The magnitude of the moves in BTC are just too great to be put in the haven category although I do believe investors can and should have an allocation to the asset class in general.”

“我从来没有想过BTC是'避风港'，”金融咨询公司Heritage Capital的创始人兼总裁Paul Schatz告诉Cointelegraph。 “ BTC中的举动的幅度太大了，尽管我确实相信投资者可以并且应该对资产类别进行一般的分配。”

“Bitcoin is still a speculative instrument for me, not a safe haven. A safe haven investment like gold has an intrinsic value that will never be zero. Bitcoin can go down 80% in major corrections. I wouldn’t expect that from gold.”

“比特币仍然是我的投机工具，而不是避风港。像黄金这样的避风港投资的内在价值永远不会为零。比特币可以在重大更正中下降80％。我不会想到黄金。”

Crypto, including Bitcoin, “has never really been a ‘safe haven play’ in my opinion,” Buvaneshwaran Venugopal, assistant professor in the department of finance at the University of Central Florida, told Cointelegraph.

包括比特币在内的加密货币“我认为从来没有真正成为“避风港”的游戏，”中央佛罗里达大学财政系助理教授Buvaneshwaran Venugopal告诉Cointelegraph。

But things aren’t always as clear as they first appear, especially when it comes to cryptocurrencies.

但是事情并不总是像最初出现的那样清楚，尤其是在加密货币方面。

One could argue that there are different kinds of safe havens: one for geopolitical events like wars, pandemics, and economic recessions, and another for strictly financial events like bank collapses or a weakening dollar, for instance.

有人可能会说，有不同种类的避风港：一个用于战争，大流行和经济衰退等地缘政治事件，另一个用于严格的金融事件，例如银行倒塌或弱美元。

The perception of Bitcoin may be changing. Its inclusion in exchange-traded funds issued by major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity in 2024 widened its ownership base, but it may also have changed its “narrative.”

对比特币的看法可能正在改变。它包含在2024年贝莱德（Blackrock）和富达（Fidelity）等主要资产经理颁发的交易所贸易资金中，扩大了其所有权基础，但它也可能改变了其“叙述”。

It is now more widely seen as a speculative or “risk on” asset like a technology stock.

现在，它被更广泛地视为像技术股票一样的投机性或“风险”资产。

“Bitcoin, and crypto as a whole, have become highly correlated with risky assets and they often move inversely to safe-haven assets, like gold,” Adam Kobeissi, editor-in-chief of the Kobeissi Letter, told Cointelegraph.

“比特币和整个加密货币已经与风险的资产高度相关，它们通常会成交与避风险资产，例如黄金，” Kobeissi Letter主编Adam Kobeissi告诉Cointelegraph。

There’s a lot of uncertainty where BTC is heading, amid “more institutional involvement and leverage,” and there’s also been a “narrative shift from Bitcoin being viewed as ‘digital gold’ to a more speculative asset.”

在“更多的机构参与和杠杆作用”中，BTC的前进方面存在很多不确定性，而且“从被视为'数字黄金'到更具投机性的资产，也存在着一种叙事的转变。”

One might think that its acceptance by traditional finance giants like BlackRock and Fidelity would make Bitcoin’s future more secure, which would boost the safe haven narrative — but that’s not necessarily the case, according to Venugopal:

人们可能会认为，贝莱德（Blackrock）和富达（Fidelity）等传统金融巨头的接受将使比特币的未来更加安全，这将提高避风港的叙述 - 但不一定是这种情况。

It will be more subject to the usual trading and draw-down strategies that institutional investors use, Venugopal continued. “If anything, BTC is now more correlated to risky assets in the market.”

Venugopal继续说，这将更受机构投资者使用的通常的交易和降低策略的约束。 “如果有的话，BTC现在与市场上的风险资产更加相关。”

Bitcoin’s dual nature

比特币的双重性质

Few deny that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are still subject to big price swings, further propelled recently by growing retail adoption of crypto, particularly from the memecoin craze, “one of the largest crypto-onboarding events in history.” But perhaps that is the wrong thing to focus on.

很少有人否认比特币和其他加密货币仍在遭受巨大的价格波动，最近进一步推动了零售的加密货币，尤其是从历史上最大的加密货币活动之一的Memecoin热潮中。”但这也许是错误的事情。

“Safe havens are always longer-term assets, which means that short-term volatility is not a factor in that characteristic,” Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, told Cointelegraph.

“避风港始终是长期资产，这意味着短期波动不是该特征的因素，”加密货币的作者诺埃尔·阿切森（Noelle Acheson）告诉Cointelegraph。

The big question is whether BTC can hold its value longer-term against fiat currencies, and it’s been able to do that. “The numbers bear out its validity – on just about any four-year timeframe, BTC has outperformed gold and US equities.”

最大的问题是BTC是否可以长期对法定货币的价值持有其价值，并且能够做到这一点。 “这些数字具有其有效性 - 几乎在任何四年的时间范围内，BTC都表现优于黄金和美国股票。”

Another possibility is that Bitcoin could be a safe haven against some happenings but not others.

另一种可能性是，比特币可能是针对某些事件的避风港，而不是其他情况。

“I see Bitcoin as a hedge against issues in TradFi,” like the downturn that followed the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank two years ago, and “US Treasury risks,” Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered told Cointelegraph. But for some geopolitical events, Bitcoin might still trade as a risk asset, he said.

“我认为比特币是对Tradfi问题的对冲，就像两年前硅谷银行和签名银行崩溃之后的低迷一样，以及“美国财政风险”，标准宪章的数字资产研究负责人Geoff Kendrick告诉Cointelegraph。他说，但是对于某些地缘政治事件，比特币仍可能作为风险资产进行交易。

Gold can serve as a hedge against geopolitical issues, like trade wars, while both Bitcoin and gold are hedges against inflation. “So both are useful hedges in a portfolio,” Kendrick added.

黄金可以作为对贸易战争等地缘政治问题的对冲，而比特币和黄金都是反对通货膨胀的对冲。肯德里克补充说：“因此，两者都是投资组合中有用的树篱。”

Others, including Ark Investment’

其他，包括方舟投资”