分析師稱，比特幣（BTC）面臨美國消費者「用盡」的風險

週三公佈的數據顯示，美國消費者累積債務的速度正在放緩。儘管自周一以來日圓套利交易的平倉可能已暫停

U.S. consumer credit barely increased in June, a sign that Americans are taking on less debt amid rising prices, high interest rates and fears of a slowing economy.

6月份美國消費信貸幾乎沒有成長，顯示在物價上漲、利率高企以及對經濟放緩的擔憂下，美國人的債務正在減少。

Total credit outstanding increased by $8.9 billion in June, data released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed. This follows an upwardly revised $13.9 billion in May and misses the consensus estimate of a $10 billion increase.

聯準會週三公佈的數據顯示，6 月未償信貸總額增加了 89 億美元。此前，5 月上調了 139 億美元，但未達到普遍預期的 100 億美元成長。

Of the total, revolving debt, representing credit cards, fell by $1.7 billion, the most since early 2021. Non-revolving debt, which includes student tuition and auto loans, rose $10.6 billion, the biggest increase in a year.

其中，以信用卡代表的循環債務減少了 17 億美元，為 2021 年初以來的最大增幅。

While the headline figure may not be concerning on its own, it comes amid other worrying signs, such as a decline in personal savings and increasing delinquency rates.

雖然整體數據本身可能並不令人擔憂，但它也伴隨著其他令人擔憂的跡象，例如個人儲蓄下降和拖欠率上升。

The June quarter saw the share of credit card delinquents or those running late on repayments for more than 90 days, rise to 10.93%, the highest since the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, auto-loan delinquencies hit 4.43%, the highest since 2021.

6月季度，信用卡拖欠或逾期還款超過90天的比例上升至10.93%，為2012年第一季以來的最高水準。

Both are a sign that U.S. consumers may have maxed out on their borrowing capacity, which could pose a challenge to bullish crypto narratives, 10x Research's founder Markus Thielen told clients in a note.

10x Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 在一份報告中告訴客戶，這兩者都表明美國消費者的借貸能力可能已達到極限，這可能對看漲的加密貨幣敘事構成挑戰。

"Weak U.S. consumer credit data, which dropped from $11.3 billion to $8.9 billion (below the expected $10 billion), mainly due to rare negative credit card debt and soaring delinquencies, signals a collapsing personal savings rate," Thielen said.

蒂倫表示：「美國消費者信貸數據疲軟，從113 億美元降至89 億美元（低於預期的100 億美元），這主要是由於罕見的負信用卡債務和拖欠率飆升，這表明個人儲蓄率正在崩潰。

"This is significant for crypto as it suggests the fiat-to-crypto onramp will remain constrained due to maxed-out U.S. consumers."

“這對加密貨幣來說意義重大，因為它表明由於美國消費者的消費最大化，法幣到加密貨幣的入口仍將受到限制。”

Thielen also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, the slowing U.S. economy and dwindling AI hype as risks to the crypto market.

蒂倫也強調了美國大選的不確定性、美國經濟放緩和人工智慧炒作的減少都是加密市場面臨的風險。

Both bitcoin and Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for all things AI, bottomed out with the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022.

隨著 2022 年底 ChatGPT 的推出，比特幣和人工智慧領域的領頭羊 Nvidia (NVDA) 都觸底反彈。

Shares in NVDA peaked in June near $140 and have since dropped to $98, according to charting platform TradingView. Bitcoin changed hands at $56,800 at press time, down 10% in seven days, according to CoinDesk data.

根據圖表平台 TradingView 的數據，NVDA 的股價在 6 月達到接近 140 美元的峰值，此後已跌至 98 美元。根據 CoinDesk 的數據，截至發稿時，比特幣價格為 56,800 美元，7 天內下跌 10%。