分析师称，比特币（BTC）面临美国消费者“用尽”的风险

周三公布的数据显示，美国消费者积累债务的速度正在放缓。尽管自周一以来日元套利交易的平仓可能已暂停

U.S. consumer credit barely increased in June, a sign that Americans are taking on less debt amid rising prices, high interest rates and fears of a slowing economy.

6月份美国消费信贷几乎没有增长，这表明在物价上涨、利率高企以及对经济放缓的担忧下，美国人的债务正在减少。

Total credit outstanding increased by $8.9 billion in June, data released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed. This follows an upwardly revised $13.9 billion in May and misses the consensus estimate of a $10 billion increase.

美联储周三公布的数据显示，6 月份未偿信贷总额增加了 89 亿美元。此前，5 月份上调了 139 亿美元，但未达到普遍预期的 100 亿美元增长。

Of the total, revolving debt, representing credit cards, fell by $1.7 billion, the most since early 2021. Non-revolving debt, which includes student tuition and auto loans, rose $10.6 billion, the biggest increase in a year.

其中，以信用卡为代表的循环债务减少了 17 亿美元，为 2021 年初以来的最大增幅。包括学生学费和汽车贷款在内的非循环债务增加了 106 亿美元，为一年来最大增幅。

While the headline figure may not be concerning on its own, it comes amid other worrying signs, such as a decline in personal savings and increasing delinquency rates.

虽然总体数据本身可能并不令人担忧，但它还伴随着其他令人担忧的迹象，例如个人储蓄下降和拖欠率上升。

The June quarter saw the share of credit card delinquents or those running late on repayments for more than 90 days, rise to 10.93%, the highest since the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, auto-loan delinquencies hit 4.43%, the highest since 2021.

6月份季度，信用卡拖欠或逾期还款超过90天的比例上升至10.93%，为2012年第一季度以来的最高水平。同时，汽车贷款拖欠率达到4.43%，为2021年以来的最高水平。

Both are a sign that U.S. consumers may have maxed out on their borrowing capacity, which could pose a challenge to bullish crypto narratives, 10x Research's founder Markus Thielen told clients in a note.

10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 在一份报告中告诉客户，这两者都表明美国消费者的借贷能力可能已达到极限，这可能对看涨的加密货币叙事构成挑战。

"Weak U.S. consumer credit data, which dropped from $11.3 billion to $8.9 billion (below the expected $10 billion), mainly due to rare negative credit card debt and soaring delinquencies, signals a collapsing personal savings rate," Thielen said.

蒂伦表示：“美国消费者信贷数据疲软，从 113 亿美元降至 89 亿美元（低于预期的 100 亿美元），这主要是由于罕见的负信用卡债务和拖欠率飙升，这表明个人储蓄率正在崩溃。”

"This is significant for crypto as it suggests the fiat-to-crypto onramp will remain constrained due to maxed-out U.S. consumers."

“这对加密货币来说意义重大，因为它表明由于美国消费者的消费最大化，法币到加密货币的入口仍将受到限制。”

Thielen also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, the slowing U.S. economy and dwindling AI hype as risks to the crypto market.

蒂伦还强调了美国大选的不确定性、美国经济放缓和人工智能炒作的减少都是加密市场面临的风险。

Both bitcoin and Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for all things AI, bottomed out with the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022.

随着 2022 年底 ChatGPT 的推出，比特币和人工智能领域的领头羊 Nvidia (NVDA) 都触底反弹。

Shares in NVDA peaked in June near $140 and have since dropped to $98, according to charting platform TradingView. Bitcoin changed hands at $56,800 at press time, down 10% in seven days, according to CoinDesk data.

根据图表平台 TradingView 的数据，NVDA 的股价在 6 月份达到接近 140 美元的峰值，此后已跌至 98 美元。根据 CoinDesk 的数据，截至发稿时，比特币价格为 56,800 美元，7 天内下跌 10%。