比特幣（BTC）已悄悄地從風險資產轉變為終極避風港

在其大部分歷史中，比特幣（加密：BTC）被認為是資產上的最終“風險”。它是高度揮發性的，容易出現繁榮的周期。

For much of its history, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been considered the ultimate “risk on” asset. It is highly volatile, and it is prone to boom-and-bust cycles. Many investors and analysts would advise against adding even a smidgen of Bitcoin to a portfolio, due to its unpredictable risk-reward profile.

在其大部分歷史中，比特幣（加密：BTC）被認為是最終的“風險”資產。它是高度揮發性的，容易出現繁榮的周期。由於其不可預測的風險回報概況，許多投資者和分析師會建議不要將比特幣的Smidgen添加到投資組合中。

But something very interesting has happened this year. The longer that global tariff uncertainty persists, the more talk there has been of Bitcoin becoming the ultimate safe haven asset. In short, Bitcoin has seemingly transformed from a “risk on” asset to a “risk off” asset, within an astonishingly short period of time. Let’s take a closer look at what that could mean for your portfolio.

但是今年發生了一些非常有趣的事情。全球關稅不確定性持續時間越長，比特幣成為最終的避風港資產的談話越多。簡而言之，比特幣似乎在短時間內從“風險”資產轉變為“風險關閉”資產。讓我們仔細看看這對您的投資組合意味著什麼。

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Bitcoin’s unique characteristics

比特幣的獨特特徵

The Bitcoin currency is global, digital, decentralized, and non-sovereign. The supply of new Bitcoin is carefully controlled by an algorithm, and no central bank or sovereign government can change this.

比特幣貨幣是全球，數字，分散和非主持人的。新比特幣的供應由算法仔細控制，沒有中央銀行或主權政府可以改變這一點。

Moreover, the total lifetime supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, and nearly 20 million coins are already in circulation. This inherent scarcity is reinforced every four years, when Bitcoin undergoes a halving event. This event, which is controlled algorithmically, is inherently disinflationary, because it cuts the rate of new Bitcoin supply in half.

此外，比特幣的總終身供應限額為2100萬個硬幣，並且已經在發行近2000萬個硬幣。當比特幣發生一半的事件時，每四年就會加強這種固有的稀缺性。該事件是由算法控制的，它本質上是釋放的，因為它將新的比特幣供應量減少了一半。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Crypto enthusiasts have declared for more than a decade that, as a result of these characteristics, Bitcoin should be considered “digital gold.” And this argument is finally starting to go mainstream. If you dive deep into different Bitcoin valuation models used by top institutional investors, you’ll often find a proxy metric that takes into account the digital gold thesis.

加密愛好者已經宣布了十多年，由於這些特徵，比特幣應被視為“數字黃金”。這個論點終於開始成為主流。如果您深入研究頂級機構投資者使用的不同比特幣估值模型，您通常會發現一個考慮數字黃金論文的代理指標。

For example, in its current Bitcoin valuation model, Ark Invest uses a metric called Digital Gold. This takes into account the total market cap of physical gold, and then projects a “penetration rate” for Bitcoin. In its bull-case scenario, this penetration rate is 60%.

例如，在當前的比特幣估值模型中，方舟投資使用了名為Digital Gold的度量。這考慮了實物黃金的總市值，然後預測比特幣的“滲透率”。在牛場的情況下，這種滲透率為60％。

Bitcoin’s track record

比特幣的往績記錄

Should you really be allocating part of your portfolio to Bitcoin right now as a potential hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty? If history is any guide, the answer to this question is “yes.”

您是否真的應該將部分投資組合分配給比特幣，以作為對經濟和地緣政治不確定性的潛在對沖？如果歷史記錄是任何指南，那麼這個問題的答案是“是”。

Last September, BlackRock examined the response of both gold and Bitcoin to a variety of shocks to the global financial system. These shocks included everything from wars to pandemics, as well as a mix of political and macroeconomic crises. BlackRock specifically looked at how gold and Bitcoin held up over both the short run and long run.

去年9月，貝萊克（Blackrock）研究了黃金和比特幣對各種衝擊對全球金融體系的反應。這些衝擊包括從戰爭到大流行的一切，以及政治和宏觀經濟危機的混合。貝萊德專門研究了黃金和比特幣如何在短期和長期奔跑中固定。

And the results might surprise you. In 5 of the 6 cases examined by BlackRock, Bitcoin outperformed gold over the long run. Gold typically performs very well in the very short term, but Bitcoin eventually catches up, narrowing the performance gap.

結果可能會讓您感到驚訝。從長遠來看，在貝萊德檢查的6個案例中，有5例比比特幣優於黃金。黃金通常在短期內表現出色，但比特幣最終趕上了，從而縮小了性能差距。

And that could be what we are seeing now. As soon as new tariffs were announced, the knee-jerk reaction of many investors was to move their money into gold. As a result, the price of gold has been soaring all year. But watch out for Bitcoin: Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin is up 25%, and the performance gap with gold appears to be narrowing.

那可能就是我們現在所看到的。一旦宣布新的關稅，許多投資者的膝蓋反應就是將錢轉移到黃金中。結果，黃金的價格一直在飆升。但是請注意比特幣：在過去的30天中，比特幣增長了25％，金色的性能差距似乎正在縮小。

What could the price impact be for Bitcoin?

價格對比特幣有什麼影響？

What’s really exciting is how this change in investor perception could affect the future upside potential of Bitcoin. One popular way to figure this out is to take the total market cap of gold and think of this as the “store of value” market for investors. You can then make a prediction about how much of this “store of value” market that Bitcoin will eventually capture.

真正令人興奮的是，這種投資者看法的變化如何影響比特幣的未來上升潛力。弄清楚這一點的一種流行方式是將黃金的總市值佔據，並將其視為投資者的“價值存儲”市場。然後，您可以預測比特幣最終將捕獲的“價值存儲”市場中的多少。

So let’s do the math. The total market cap of gold is estimated to be $20 trillion. If we assume that Bitcoin will account for 50% of the “store of value” market, then we can use a scaling factor of 0.5 to arrive at an implied valuation of $10 trillion for Bitcoin. When we divide that valuation by the number of coins outstanding (approximately 20 million), that leads to a theoretical Bitcoin price target of $500,000.

因此，讓我們進行數學。黃金的總市值估計為20萬億美元。如果我們假設比特幣將佔“價值存儲”市場的50％，那麼我們可以使用0.5的比例係數來達到比特幣的暗示估值。當我們將該估值除以未償還的硬幣數量（約2000萬個），這將導致理論上的比特幣目標價值為500,000美元。

Of course, there are no guarantees here that Bitcoin will ever hit such a ridiculously high price target, and the timeline could be long. Yet a price target of $500,000 might actually be on the low side. There are plenty of price forecasts out there suggesting that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030. In fact, Ark Invest now thinks Bitcoin might hit $2.4 million, and a big part of this is due to the digital gold thesis.

當然，這裡沒有保證比特幣會達到如此荒謬的價格目標，並且時間表可能很長。然而，實際上可能是500,000美元的目標目標。那裡有很多價格預測，表明比特幣到2030年可能達到100萬美元。實際上，方舟投資現在認為比特幣可能達到240萬美元，其中很大一部分是由於數字黃金論文所致。

If the current tariff situation worsens, and money continues to flow out of dollar-denominated assets, some of that money is almost certainly going to flow into Bitcoin. So, in a strange and surprising way, tariff

如果當前的關稅情況惡化，並且金錢繼續從以美元計價的資產流出，那麼其中一些錢幾乎可以肯定會流向比特幣。因此，以一種奇怪而令人驚訝的方式關稅