比特幣（BTC）的價格集會經常與投資者的通貨膨脹問題或超過經濟增長期望的數據有關

比特幣（BTC）的價格集會經常與投資者的通貨膨脹問題或超過經濟增長期望的數據有關

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

Bitcoin tends to rally significantly when low leverage meets stronger-than-expected retail sales and hawkish Federal Reserve signals.

當低杠桿率達到超過預期的零售銷售和鷹隊美聯儲信號時，比特幣往往會大大召集。

In three separate seven-week periods, Bitcoin rose 50% to 84%.

在三個獨立的七週期間，比特幣上漲了50％，達到84％。

Upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could benefit Bitcoin price.

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）即將發表的演講可能會使比特幣價格受益。

Bitcoin (BTC) price rallies are often linked to investors' inflation concerns or data that bodes well for economic growth, but clear signals of an impending rally are rare. However, a combination of three independent events has historically been a strong indicator of BTC price surges of 50% or more.

比特幣（BTC）的價格集會通常與投資者的通貨膨脹問題或對經濟增長良好的數據有關，但是明顯的即將來臨的集會的信號很少。但是，歷史上三個獨立事件的結合是BTC價格飆升50％或以上的有力指標。

The scenario unfolds when expectations for US Federal Reserve policy become less bullish, crypto market leverage is low and we see strong retail data to support the bullish momentum. The last occurrence of these three events saw Bitcoin’s price increase from $40,000 to $73,500 over seven weeks in early 2024.

當對美國美聯儲政策的期望變得不那麼看好時，這種情況就會發展，加密貨幣市場槓桿率很低，我們看到強大的零售數據以支持看漲的勢頭。這三個事件的最後一次發生的情況使比特幣的價格從2024年初的七個星期內從40,000美元上漲到73,500美元。

Comparable gains were recorded in early 2023, when the same three drivers aligned, propelling Bitcoin from $16,700 to $25,100 over seven weeks. A third example dates back to July 2021, culminating in a 76% price increase.

在2023年初記錄了可比的收益，當時相同的三名車手在7週內將比特幣從16,700美元推動到25,100美元。第三個例子可以追溯到2021年7月，最終提高了76％的價格。

After stagnating near $43,000 in December 2023, Bitcoin’s price tested the $48,000 level in early January 2024. The failed breakout was followed by a sharp drop to $37,800 by late January, just as a seven-week bullish trend began. A crucial factor at this stage was the exceptionally low perpetual futures funding rate, sitting at 4% per year.

在2023年12月的停滯近43,000美元之後，比特幣的價格在2024年1月初測試了48,000美元的水平。在1月下旬，失敗的突破之後，急得下降至37,800美元，就像7週的看漲趨勢一樣。在此階段，關鍵因素是每年4％的永久性期貨融資率異常低。

Other factors impacting the price reversal was US retail sales data for December 2023, released on January 17, 2024, exceeded expectations, rising 0.6% month-over-month compared to the 0.4% forecast and US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s January 31, 2024 press conference that, signaled a tighter monetary stance, with no immediate interest rate cuts in sight.

影響價格逆轉的其他因素是2024年12月17日發布的美國零售銷售數據超出了預期，與0.4％的預測和美國聯邦儲備主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）在2024年1月31日的2024年1月31日的壓力下增加了0.6％的月份增長，這表明了較高的貨幣範圍，沒有立即的利率削減利率。

Bitcoin’s price had remained below $18,000 for two months, leading to minimal demand for leveraged long positions, as evidenced by the nearly zero perpetual futures funding rate.

在兩個月內，比特幣的價格一直保持在18,000美元以下，從而導致對長期槓桿率的需求最少，這證明了幾乎為零的永久期貨融資率。

This scenario changed on January 3, 2024, when the funding rate on Binance experienced a 50% increase over four days. This development coincided with stronger-than-expected retail sales data for January 2024, which rose 3% month-over-month, outpacing the 1.9% consensus. Notably, Fed Chair Powell also suggested a tighter monetary policy to combat inflation during his speech at Sveriges Riksbank on January 10, 2024.

這種情況在2024年1月3日發生了變化，當時Binance的資金率在四天內增長了50％。這一發展與2024年1月的零售數據相吻合，該數據越來越多，該數據上升了3％，超過了1.9％的共識。值得注意的是，美聯儲主席鮑威爾（Powell）還建議在2024年1月10日在Sveriges Riksbank的演講中製定更嚴格的貨幣政策，以打擊通貨膨脹。

From July 20, 2021, to September 7, 2021, Bitcoin's price dropped from $40,000 to less than $30,000 over the previous month, dampening market sentiment. However, the annualized Bitcoin funding rate went from 0% to 37% over two weeks, while US retail sales data for June 2021 surprised economists by increasing 0.6%, whereas the prediction was for a 0.4% decrease.

從2021年7月20日到2021年9月7日，比特幣的價格從上個月的$ 40,000下降到不到30,000美元的$ 30,000。但是，在兩週內，年度化比特幣融資率從0％增加到37％，而2021年6月的美國零售數據使經濟學家驚訝於0.6％，而預測的預測降低了0.4％。

During this period, Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 27, 2021, indicated a potential reduction in central bank asset purchases, a move that was ultimately aimed at curbing inflation.

在此期間，鮑威爾在2021年8月27日在傑克遜霍爾經濟研討會上發表的講話表明，中央銀行資產的購買量有可能減少，這一舉動最終旨在遏制通貨膨脹。

The common factor linking these substantial rallies is a decrease in expectations for an expansionary Federal Reserve policy and initially low leverage demand from Bitcoin bulls. When these elements converge with strong retail data, they create the perfect storm for a Bitcoin bull run, as traders tend to remain cautious ahead of potential economic downturns.

將這些大量集會聯繫起來的共同因素是對擴張性美聯儲政策的期望下降，最初對比特幣公牛的槓桿槓桿需求降低。當這些要素與強大的零售數據匯聚在一起時，它們為比特幣公牛跑步創造了完美的風暴，因為交易者往往在潛在的經濟低迷之前保持謹慎。

As we move into the second half of 2024, keeping an eye on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech on June 18 following the central bank's interest rate decision will be crucial. Additionally, the Beige Book release on July 16 and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starting August 21 are key dates to monitor. Finally, we'll be looking at the US retail sales data for May, set for June 17, and for June, due July 15.

隨著我們進入2024年下半年，在中央銀行的利率決定將是至關重要的。此外，7月16日的米色書籍發行和8月21日開始的傑克遜洞經濟研討會是監視的關鍵日期。最後，我們將查看5月的美國零售數據，定於6月17日，以及6月15日到期。