比特币（BTC）的价格集会经常与投资者的通货膨胀问题或超过经济增长期望的数据有关

比特币（BTC）的价格集会经常与投资者的通货膨胀问题或超过经济增长期望的数据有关

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

Bitcoin tends to rally significantly when low leverage meets stronger-than-expected retail sales and hawkish Federal Reserve signals.

当低杠杆率达到超过预期的零售销售和鹰队美联储信号时，比特币往往会大大召集。

In three separate seven-week periods, Bitcoin rose 50% to 84%.

在三个独立的七周期间，比特币上涨了50％，达到84％。

Upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could benefit Bitcoin price.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）即将发表的演讲可能会使比特币价格受益。

Bitcoin (BTC) price rallies are often linked to investors' inflation concerns or data that bodes well for economic growth, but clear signals of an impending rally are rare. However, a combination of three independent events has historically been a strong indicator of BTC price surges of 50% or more.

比特币（BTC）的价格集会通常与投资者的通货膨胀问题或对经济增长良好的数据有关，但是明显的即将来临的集会的信号很少。但是，历史上三个独立事件的结合是BTC价格飙升50％或以上的有力指标。

The scenario unfolds when expectations for US Federal Reserve policy become less bullish, crypto market leverage is low and we see strong retail data to support the bullish momentum. The last occurrence of these three events saw Bitcoin’s price increase from $40,000 to $73,500 over seven weeks in early 2024.

当对美国美联储政策的期望变得不那么看好时，这种情况就会发展，加密货币市场杠杆率很低，我们看到强大的零售数据以支持看涨的势头。这三个事件的最后一次发生的情况使比特币的价格从2024年初的七个星期内从40,000美元上涨到73,500美元。

Comparable gains were recorded in early 2023, when the same three drivers aligned, propelling Bitcoin from $16,700 to $25,100 over seven weeks. A third example dates back to July 2021, culminating in a 76% price increase.

在2023年初记录了可比的收益，当时相同的三名车手在7周内将比特币从16,700美元推动到25,100美元。第三个例子可以追溯到2021年7月，最终提高了76％的价格。

After stagnating near $43,000 in December 2023, Bitcoin’s price tested the $48,000 level in early January 2024. The failed breakout was followed by a sharp drop to $37,800 by late January, just as a seven-week bullish trend began. A crucial factor at this stage was the exceptionally low perpetual futures funding rate, sitting at 4% per year.

在2023年12月的停滞近43,000美元之后，比特币的价格在2024年1月初测试了48,000美元的水平。在1月下旬，失败的突破之后，急得下降至37,800美元，就像7周的看涨趋势一样。在此阶段，关键因素是每年4％的永久性期货融资率异常低。

Other factors impacting the price reversal was US retail sales data for December 2023, released on January 17, 2024, exceeded expectations, rising 0.6% month-over-month compared to the 0.4% forecast and US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s January 31, 2024 press conference that, signaled a tighter monetary stance, with no immediate interest rate cuts in sight.

影响价格逆转的其他因素是2024年12月17日发布的美国零售销售数据超出了预期，与0.4％的预测和美国联邦储备主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在2024年1月31日的2024年1月31日的压力下增加了0.6％的月份增长，这表明了较高的货币范围，没有立即的利率削减利率。

Bitcoin’s price had remained below $18,000 for two months, leading to minimal demand for leveraged long positions, as evidenced by the nearly zero perpetual futures funding rate.

在两个月内，比特币的价格一直保持在18,000美元以下，从而导致对长期杠杆率的需求最少，这证明了几乎为零的永久期货融资率。

This scenario changed on January 3, 2024, when the funding rate on Binance experienced a 50% increase over four days. This development coincided with stronger-than-expected retail sales data for January 2024, which rose 3% month-over-month, outpacing the 1.9% consensus. Notably, Fed Chair Powell also suggested a tighter monetary policy to combat inflation during his speech at Sveriges Riksbank on January 10, 2024.

这种情况在2024年1月3日发生了变化，当时Binance的资金率在四天内增长了50％。这一发展与2024年1月的零售数据相吻合，该数据越来越多，该数据上升了3％，超过了1.9％的共识。值得注意的是，美联储主席鲍威尔（Powell）还建议在2024年1月10日在Sveriges Riksbank的演讲中制定更严格的货币政策，以打击通货膨胀。

From July 20, 2021, to September 7, 2021, Bitcoin's price dropped from $40,000 to less than $30,000 over the previous month, dampening market sentiment. However, the annualized Bitcoin funding rate went from 0% to 37% over two weeks, while US retail sales data for June 2021 surprised economists by increasing 0.6%, whereas the prediction was for a 0.4% decrease.

从2021年7月20日到2021年9月7日，比特币的价格从上个月的$ 40,000下降到不到30,000美元的$ 30,000。但是，在两周内，年度化比特币融资率从0％增加到37％，而2021年6月的美国零售数据使经济学家惊讶于0.6％，而预测的预测降低了0.4％。

During this period, Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 27, 2021, indicated a potential reduction in central bank asset purchases, a move that was ultimately aimed at curbing inflation.

在此期间，鲍威尔在2021年8月27日在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表的讲话表明，中央银行资产的购买量有可能减少，这一举动最终旨在遏制通货膨胀。

The common factor linking these substantial rallies is a decrease in expectations for an expansionary Federal Reserve policy and initially low leverage demand from Bitcoin bulls. When these elements converge with strong retail data, they create the perfect storm for a Bitcoin bull run, as traders tend to remain cautious ahead of potential economic downturns.

将这些大量集会联系起来的共同因素是对扩张性美联储政策的期望下降，最初对比特币公牛的杠杆杠杆需求降低。当这些要素与强大的零售数据汇聚在一起时，它们为比特币公牛跑步创造了完美的风暴，因为交易者往往在潜在的经济低迷之前保持谨慎。

As we move into the second half of 2024, keeping an eye on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech on June 18 following the central bank's interest rate decision will be crucial. Additionally, the Beige Book release on July 16 and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starting August 21 are key dates to monitor. Finally, we'll be looking at the US retail sales data for May, set for June 17, and for June, due July 15.

随着我们进入2024年下半年，在中央银行的利率决定将是至关重要的。此外，7月16日的米色书籍发行和8月21日开始的杰克逊洞经济研讨会是监视的关键日期。最后，我们将查看5月的美国零售数据，定于6月17日，以及6月15日到期。